SOLAR CYCLE 24 is Odd, Very Odd

Commentary on the sun's 24th sunspot cycle continues to consider the unusual ingredients in this cycle, pointing towards a significant low sunspot period unfolding.
This NOAA space weather graphic prediction shows the low level tracking of the sunspot totals since Cycle 24 started in December 2008. The totals are expected by normal calculations, to track along the red trace.
Scroll to end for 2014 updates

click to enlarge all graphics

 Jan Alvestad's site Solen provides a lot of cycle graphs for historic comparisons and he freely shares his work. His analysis suggests Cycle 24 may mimic Cycle 10 to some extent.
Cycle 10 began in December 1855, ended March 1867 [ 11years, 3 mo]
Cycle 10 peaked after 50 months in Feb 1860 with a peak around 95 on the number axis.

So here's an interesting proposition: if Cycle 24 has a similar beginning trajectory
Beginning December 2008
Peaking February 2013 ( 50 months in)
Does Cycle 24 unfold as expected, ending around 2020?
Or could this cycle effectively end much sooner than expected  - i.e. decline unusually quickly, with subsequent Deep or Grand Minimum of sunspot activity.

A significant consensus says a minimum event is on the horizon but there are lots of different theories suggesting why.
One indicator I will be watching re the question whether Cycle 24 has any connection to Cycle 10 is the position of Saturn. In November 2014 Saturn will reach the same position as in March 1867 which marked the end of Cycle 10. From this point a clear and dramatic decline in the sunspot levels of Cycle 24 may be underway.

This this is a rather random intuitive leap, updates will be added which reflect of the status of Cycle 24.
The theories of Landscheidt et al. referenced by Geoff Sharp pursue a wholistic solar systemic perspective compared to standard NASA research.

update April 20 2012

Piers Corbyn, UK forecaster expects Coldest May in 100 years for Britain in 2012 - report 

Update May 17 UT

Unusually large sunspot 1476  basically failed to deliver much of note as it crossed the solar disc in the past week - though on exit stage right -an M5.1 starting between 0:00 to 01:00 hrs UT,  plus CME seems to have knocked out spaceweather satellites, with ACE & GOES amongst others, blinking off for up to 3 hrs. Piers Corbyn supports the view of Japanese researchers who feel the north & south  solar polar fields have become out of synch, creating what Corbyn calls a 'magnetic muddle'. Is this responsible for the current underwhelming solar output?

update March 2 2013
NASA acknowledges 'something unexpected is happening on the sun & so a new prediction for the current solar cycle:

update March 13 2013
Going back in time when excitement was high over solar activity:
Solarham notes:
Between March 6th and March 19th, 1989 during Solar Cycle 22, a very large Sunspot numbered 5395 was making it's second trip across the Earth facing side of the Sun. The spot was so large, measuring over 3500 millionth's the Sun's visible Earth facing hemisphere, it could have swallowed up approx. 22 planet Earths. The behemoth was responsible for 48 M-Class flares and 11 X-Class flares during the transit, including a massive X15 event on March 6th, 1989. One of these large X-Class events on March 10th hurled a massive CME towards Earth and was responsible for a now legendary geomagnetic storm between March 13 and March 15, 1989. This particular storm was so intense, it knocked out the Hydro Quebec power grid for several hours and visible Aurora could be seen as far south as Florida and Cuba.


update April 25 2014
The sun is doing something odd.
The double peak of sunspots is now projecting much higher than the initial peak in this cycle
Standard solar physics says the cycle should now be weakening -not growing in strength.
This has implications for climate effects: more solar activity =more warming; less activity =more cooling
report

Resources, References, Further Reading
More Mini-Ice Age predictions

SOLEN
Are Uranus & Neptune responsible for Solar Grand Minima and Solar Cycle Modulation?
Astronomy Now on unusual aspects of Cycle 24
Outlook for Cycle 25
Is the sun about to shift from Bipilar to Quadrupolar?  - 2012 press release
Official view: Cycle 24 the smallest in 100 years

Watching the Sun -the relationship to Earth events

The sun has energetic cycles like every other living, dynamic or organic system in existence. The cycles of the sun relate to the level of sunspot activity which has been observed to approximately follow 11 year cycles. Currently we are in Cycle 24 in terms of modern era measurement.
Sunspots explained
Sunspot Cycle explained
Solar Cycle 24 explained

Traditional astrophysics provides us with an exciting array of freely available online data via NASA, NOAA and enthusiast sites like Solar Ham and Space Weather plus many more.

These sites are excellent for data, forecasts/predictions based on measurement systems and computer modelling. They are good, even excellent resources but not infallible, since the human factor always has to be factored in in terms of error, bias etc.

An extension of this mainstream realm of information is the network of often highly experienced enthusiasts, analysts even hobbyists, who put their own spin on the observations they make, often using the same data sets relied upon by NASA or NOAA for forecasting of solar activity and spaceweather.
Australian website Solar Watcher is one of a small number it seems, using a "solar symmetry" technique, when considering solar activity and earth related impacts. In particular a correlation is implied between coronal holes and other solar activity and their locational mirror on earth having a subsequent terrestrial response - specifically earthquakes or volcanic activity. So it is a matching based on solar latitude overlaid on earth latitude. This method appears to have some accuracy.

Flares, filaments, coronal holes, sunspots and CMEs are a big part of daily life on the sun due to its perpetual magnetic dynamics. Once the Sun discharges a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), it sends a massive packet of highly charged material (electrons, protons) out into space and it has the potential to drench tiny Earth in a mass of geomagnetic turbulence, termed a storm. Storm levels vary and are graded, so some impacts are seen as neglible, others potentially destructive on a large scale. (Sept 1-2 1859 saw a massive CME speedily reach earth, bringing the largest geomagnetic storm on record. Had this occurred in contemporary technological conditions, the systemic breakdown would have been catastrophic. Though this may have been an aberration, there remains concern that a similarly powerful event could occur in the future. NASA notes more recent geomagnetic storm damage in this summary.
NASAs Science News page gives updated developments in space research on these topics. The sheer quantity of dollar investment in solar physics alone shows the elevated priority given to anticipating the impacts earth may experience from our key star.

Since we are heading towards the maximum phase of Solar Cycle 24 this is a very timely opportunity to be an observer regarding the effects on earth of solar driven events. That geomagnetic storms impact technology and can disrupt electricity supply is proven. The human eye can see storms as evidence of their occurrence - by virtue of the northern or southern lights -the aurora borealis or australis - which expand to much lower (N) or higher (S) latitudes in respect to the intensity of the storm - the 1859 example showed an extreme coverage.

What occurs in addition to the most often reported effects is even more interesting. Some possibilities of higher incidence effects that seem to cluster in synchrony with solar induced geomagnetic turbulence:
increased explosion events reported - chemical lab Sept 26 2011 example & another - a gas explosion
people/animals in mass disturbed activity - Occupy Wall Street protest   Student protest NZ  Piranhas attack 
increased power surge events & electrical/electronic systems damage e.g. phones mass website server outage in NZ
volatility on the global sharemarkets, including a notable slump - Sept 27 news item

Watching a solar flux graph gives an early indicator of flare activity on the Sun. The emission of a CME which is often related to hi flare activity, will be noted by any of the tracking sites noted above.
At the time of writing (Sept 27), solar activity has declined but the geomagnetic index remains in the red zone, with a reading of 8 out of 9, giving severe disruption at highest latitudes.

Updates may be added as more information comes to hand
Sept 27 China rail crash from signal failure
             Egypt gas pipeline explosion
Sept 28 UK explosion
             Malaysia mall explosion
              US bakery explosion
Sept 29  Kenya explosion

Gas features significantly in these events as opposed to explosives. There may be atmospheric conditions which elevate the volatility of gases when geomagnetic conditions are in the high levels.

This Facebook page is worth following too NOAA NWS Space Weather Prediction Center - this recent CME is animated by NASA. The sun on the left emits the massive output towards earth on the right, with the highest density material in the centre missing earth this time.



Dec 17 2011
A National Geographic post explaining the quiet sun's potential for more activity towards peak of the cycle