Watching the Sun -the relationship to Earth events

The sun has energetic cycles like every other living, dynamic or organic system in existence. The cycles of the sun relate to the level of sunspot activity which has been observed to approximately follow 11 year cycles. Currently we are in Cycle 24 in terms of modern era measurement.
Sunspots explained
Sunspot Cycle explained
Solar Cycle 24 explained

Traditional astrophysics provides us with an exciting array of freely available online data via NASA, NOAA and enthusiast sites like Solar Ham and Space Weather plus many more.

These sites are excellent for data, forecasts/predictions based on measurement systems and computer modelling. They are good, even excellent resources but not infallible, since the human factor always has to be factored in in terms of error, bias etc.

An extension of this mainstream realm of information is the network of often highly experienced enthusiasts, analysts even hobbyists, who put their own spin on the observations they make, often using the same data sets relied upon by NASA or NOAA for forecasting of solar activity and spaceweather.
Australian website Solar Watcher is one of a small number it seems, using a "solar symmetry" technique, when considering solar activity and earth related impacts. In particular a correlation is implied between coronal holes and other solar activity and their locational mirror on earth having a subsequent terrestrial response - specifically earthquakes or volcanic activity. So it is a matching based on solar latitude overlaid on earth latitude. This method appears to have some accuracy.

Flares, filaments, coronal holes, sunspots and CMEs are a big part of daily life on the sun due to its perpetual magnetic dynamics. Once the Sun discharges a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), it sends a massive packet of highly charged material (electrons, protons) out into space and it has the potential to drench tiny Earth in a mass of geomagnetic turbulence, termed a storm. Storm levels vary and are graded, so some impacts are seen as neglible, others potentially destructive on a large scale. (Sept 1-2 1859 saw a massive CME speedily reach earth, bringing the largest geomagnetic storm on record. Had this occurred in contemporary technological conditions, the systemic breakdown would have been catastrophic. Though this may have been an aberration, there remains concern that a similarly powerful event could occur in the future. NASA notes more recent geomagnetic storm damage in this summary.
NASAs Science News page gives updated developments in space research on these topics. The sheer quantity of dollar investment in solar physics alone shows the elevated priority given to anticipating the impacts earth may experience from our key star.

Since we are heading towards the maximum phase of Solar Cycle 24 this is a very timely opportunity to be an observer regarding the effects on earth of solar driven events. That geomagnetic storms impact technology and can disrupt electricity supply is proven. The human eye can see storms as evidence of their occurrence - by virtue of the northern or southern lights -the aurora borealis or australis - which expand to much lower (N) or higher (S) latitudes in respect to the intensity of the storm - the 1859 example showed an extreme coverage.

What occurs in addition to the most often reported effects is even more interesting. Some possibilities of higher incidence effects that seem to cluster in synchrony with solar induced geomagnetic turbulence:
increased explosion events reported - chemical lab Sept 26 2011 example & another - a gas explosion
people/animals in mass disturbed activity - Occupy Wall Street protest   Student protest NZ  Piranhas attack 
increased power surge events & electrical/electronic systems damage e.g. phones mass website server outage in NZ
volatility on the global sharemarkets, including a notable slump - Sept 27 news item

Watching a solar flux graph gives an early indicator of flare activity on the Sun. The emission of a CME which is often related to hi flare activity, will be noted by any of the tracking sites noted above.
At the time of writing (Sept 27), solar activity has declined but the geomagnetic index remains in the red zone, with a reading of 8 out of 9, giving severe disruption at highest latitudes.

Updates may be added as more information comes to hand
Sept 27 China rail crash from signal failure
             Egypt gas pipeline explosion
Sept 28 UK explosion
             Malaysia mall explosion
              US bakery explosion
Sept 29  Kenya explosion

Gas features significantly in these events as opposed to explosives. There may be atmospheric conditions which elevate the volatility of gases when geomagnetic conditions are in the high levels.

This Facebook page is worth following too NOAA NWS Space Weather Prediction Center - this recent CME is animated by NASA. The sun on the left emits the massive output towards earth on the right, with the highest density material in the centre missing earth this time.



Dec 17 2011
A National Geographic post explaining the quiet sun's potential for more activity towards peak of the cycle

NASA Sunspot Predictions - from Maximum to Minimum

If the Sun had ramped up it's magnetic energy from 2007 and was on target to reach dizzying heights in sunspot numbers by 2012, we could expect to get nervous about the sorts of impacts forewarned in You Tube videos on Solar Storm Warnings, coinciding with 2012.
Instead the Sun confused NASA scientists and failed to kick into Cycle 24 until 2009. Since then, the results have been far from spectacular, leaving many to switch forecasts from Maximum to Minimum.
Many online reports say NASA issued a 2010 warning re flares and a huge space storm whilst also declaring a Deep Solar Minimum and the two conditions are not mutually exclusive. A recent NASA news release (June 2011) still talks of such a storm, which is possible even in a below-average sunspot cycle - since one happened before (1859 Carrington Event). As for confirming a date. No such luck in this uncertain area of science.
Also,if we do observe very low sunspot levels in 2012-2014, seen in the last similar era the Maunder Minimum of 1645-1715, very cold winters could be the result.
Read how NASA has made a series of predictions for Solar Cycle 24 - here
The following History Channel video discusses a coming solar storm and reiterates NASA's original forecast for a possible 2012 event ( which now seems too early)  It is shown here for educational purposes.

Update August 2 2011

Solar data to die for the Solar Terrestrial Activity Report in depth with great graphics
Sunspots 1261 and 1263 are expected to harbour X-class flares
James Marusek Impact website -a nuclear physicist worth listening to re solar activity:
 "the sun has entered a changed state" he says.
At length he describes the systemic breakdown that will occur if a major geomagnetic storm knocked out power grids for an extended period

Update April 26 2012 

Read also post on Solar Cycle 24 is Odd

Does Solar Minimum = More Seismic & Volcanic Unrest?

 Does Solar Minimum = More Seismic & Volcanic Unrest on Planet Earth?

Though a cycle of roughly 11 years has been recorded pertaining to the sunspot output generated by the sun, sunspots, flares and coronal mass ejections are the key events we observe from earth and understand to be part of the Sun's event processes. It is the sunspot cycle that seems highly important in terms of impacts upon our planet. Researchers believe that current Cycle 24 will be the smallest ( lowest total sunspots for over the past 100 years)
Even NASA is prepared to state: changes in the Earth's magnetic field are known to be caused by solar storms but the precise connections between them and future solar activity levels is still uncertain.

A significant body of researchers consider the solar minimum period corresponds with increased seismic and volcanic activity on earth. 
For some examples, refer to:
John L Casey
Brent Walker
Solar Cycle 24 Forum

Very fascinating is the dominant latitude band on the sun where primary sunspot activity occurs - in the main, 30N to 30S of the solar equator. Those who follow astrotometry,          (created by John Thomas Bryant Jnr) which looks at solar event locations being mirrored on earth, will be delighted to know that the 30-40 North-South earth latitude band is where the majority of quakes occur on our planet. ( Note: John Bryant appears to have shifted focus, but thebarcaroller is possibly superior in using the same solar mirroring technique - see video below)

see these related links:
Times and Places
The Latitude Factor..
Worst Zones for Earthquakes
Puyehue Cordon volcano update

Check back as this post is updated 

Update July 17 2011

Notes from a recent astrophysicists conference in New Mexico indicating the extent of the solar minimum and the sun's puzzling behaviour. 
A summary of recent theories 
based on the current somewhat unprecedented circumstances which make it hard for any space scientist to be on secure grounds when anticipating how the sun's unusual state will affect us on earth. ( The sunspot cycle has only a short history of data dating back 400 years)

Update July 27

Video re solar prediction techniques - from thebarcaroller