Watching the Sun -the relationship to Earth events
The sun has energetic cycles like every other living, dynamic or organic system in existence. The cycles of the sun relate to the level of sunspot activity which has been observed to approximately follow 11 year cycles. Currently we are in Cycle 24 in terms of modern era measurement.
Sunspots explained
Sunspot Cycle explained
Solar Cycle 24 explained
Traditional astrophysics provides us with an exciting array of freely available online data via NASA, NOAA and enthusiast sites like Solar Ham and Space Weather plus many more.
These sites are excellent for data, forecasts/predictions based on measurement systems and computer modelling. They are good, even excellent resources but not infallible, since the human factor always has to be factored in in terms of error, bias etc.
An extension of this mainstream realm of information is the network of often highly experienced enthusiasts, analysts even hobbyists, who put their own spin on the observations they make, often using the same data sets relied upon by NASA or NOAA for forecasting of solar activity and spaceweather.
Australian website Solar Watcher is one of a small number it seems, using a "solar symmetry" technique, when considering solar activity and earth related impacts. In particular a correlation is implied between coronal holes and other solar activity and their locational mirror on earth having a subsequent terrestrial response - specifically earthquakes or volcanic activity. So it is a matching based on solar latitude overlaid on earth latitude. This method appears to have some accuracy.
Flares, filaments, coronal holes, sunspots and CMEs are a big part of daily life on the sun due to its perpetual magnetic dynamics. Once the Sun discharges a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), it sends a massive packet of highly charged material (electrons, protons) out into space and it has the potential to drench tiny Earth in a mass of geomagnetic turbulence, termed a storm. Storm levels vary and are graded, so some impacts are seen as neglible, others potentially destructive on a large scale. (Sept 1-2 1859 saw a massive CME speedily reach earth, bringing the largest geomagnetic storm on record. Had this occurred in contemporary technological conditions, the systemic breakdown would have been catastrophic. Though this may have been an aberration, there remains concern that a similarly powerful event could occur in the future. NASA notes more recent geomagnetic storm damage in this summary.
NASAs Science News page gives updated developments in space research on these topics. The sheer quantity of dollar investment in solar physics alone shows the elevated priority given to anticipating the impacts earth may experience from our key star.
Since we are heading towards the maximum phase of Solar Cycle 24 this is a very timely opportunity to be an observer regarding the effects on earth of solar driven events. That geomagnetic storms impact technology and can disrupt electricity supply is proven. The human eye can see storms as evidence of their occurrence - by virtue of the northern or southern lights -the aurora borealis or australis - which expand to much lower (N) or higher (S) latitudes in respect to the intensity of the storm - the 1859 example showed an extreme coverage.
What occurs in addition to the most often reported effects is even more interesting. Some possibilities of higher incidence effects that seem to cluster in synchrony with solar induced geomagnetic turbulence:
increased explosion events reported - chemical lab Sept 26 2011 example & another - a gas explosion
people/animals in mass disturbed activity - Occupy Wall Street protest Student protest NZ Piranhas attack
increased power surge events & electrical/electronic systems damage e.g. phones mass website server outage in NZ
volatility on the global sharemarkets, including a notable slump - Sept 27 news item
Watching a solar flux graph gives an early indicator of flare activity on the Sun. The emission of a CME which is often related to hi flare activity, will be noted by any of the tracking sites noted above.
At the time of writing (Sept 27), solar activity has declined but the geomagnetic index remains in the red zone, with a reading of 8 out of 9, giving severe disruption at highest latitudes.
Updates may be added as more information comes to hand
Sept 27 China rail crash from signal failure
Egypt gas pipeline explosion
Sept 28 UK explosion
Malaysia mall explosion
US bakery explosion
Sept 29 Kenya explosion
Gas features significantly in these events as opposed to explosives. There may be atmospheric conditions which elevate the volatility of gases when geomagnetic conditions are in the high levels.
This Facebook page is worth following too NOAA NWS Space Weather Prediction Center - this recent CME is animated by NASA. The sun on the left emits the massive output towards earth on the right, with the highest density material in the centre missing earth this time.
Dec 17 2011
A National Geographic post explaining the quiet sun's potential for more activity towards peak of the cycle
