NASA Sunspot Predictions - from Maximum to Minimum

If the Sun had ramped up it's magnetic energy from 2007 and was on target to reach dizzying heights in sunspot numbers by 2012, we could expect to get nervous about the sorts of impacts forewarned in You Tube videos on Solar Storm Warnings, coinciding with 2012.
Instead the Sun confused NASA scientists and failed to kick into Cycle 24 until 2009. Since then, the results have been far from spectacular, leaving many to switch forecasts from Maximum to Minimum.
Many online reports say NASA issued a 2010 warning re flares and a huge space storm whilst also declaring a Deep Solar Minimum and the two conditions are not mutually exclusive. A recent NASA news release (June 2011) still talks of such a storm, which is possible even in a below-average sunspot cycle - since one happened before (1859 Carrington Event). As for confirming a date. No such luck in this uncertain area of science.
Also,if we do observe very low sunspot levels in 2012-2014, seen in the last similar era the Maunder Minimum of 1645-1715, very cold winters could be the result.
Read how NASA has made a series of predictions for Solar Cycle 24 - here
The following History Channel video discusses a coming solar storm and reiterates NASA's original forecast for a possible 2012 event ( which now seems too early)  It is shown here for educational purposes.

Update August 2 2011

Solar data to die for the Solar Terrestrial Activity Report in depth with great graphics
Sunspots 1261 and 1263 are expected to harbour X-class flares
James Marusek Impact website -a nuclear physicist worth listening to re solar activity:
 "the sun has entered a changed state" he says.
At length he describes the systemic breakdown that will occur if a major geomagnetic storm knocked out power grids for an extended period

Update April 26 2012 

Read also post on Solar Cycle 24 is Odd

Does Solar Minimum = More Seismic & Volcanic Unrest?

 Does Solar Minimum = More Seismic & Volcanic Unrest on Planet Earth?

Though a cycle of roughly 11 years has been recorded pertaining to the sunspot output generated by the sun, sunspots, flares and coronal mass ejections are the key events we observe from earth and understand to be part of the Sun's event processes. It is the sunspot cycle that seems highly important in terms of impacts upon our planet. Researchers believe that current Cycle 24 will be the smallest ( lowest total sunspots for over the past 100 years)
Even NASA is prepared to state: changes in the Earth's magnetic field are known to be caused by solar storms but the precise connections between them and future solar activity levels is still uncertain.

A significant body of researchers consider the solar minimum period corresponds with increased seismic and volcanic activity on earth. 
For some examples, refer to:
John L Casey
Brent Walker
Solar Cycle 24 Forum

Very fascinating is the dominant latitude band on the sun where primary sunspot activity occurs - in the main, 30N to 30S of the solar equator. Those who follow astrotometry,          (created by John Thomas Bryant Jnr) which looks at solar event locations being mirrored on earth, will be delighted to know that the 30-40 North-South earth latitude band is where the majority of quakes occur on our planet. ( Note: John Bryant appears to have shifted focus, but thebarcaroller is possibly superior in using the same solar mirroring technique - see video below)

see these related links:
Times and Places
The Latitude Factor..
Worst Zones for Earthquakes
Puyehue Cordon volcano update

Check back as this post is updated 

Update July 17 2011

Notes from a recent astrophysicists conference in New Mexico indicating the extent of the solar minimum and the sun's puzzling behaviour. 
A summary of recent theories 
based on the current somewhat unprecedented circumstances which make it hard for any space scientist to be on secure grounds when anticipating how the sun's unusual state will affect us on earth. ( The sunspot cycle has only a short history of data dating back 400 years)

Update July 27

Video re solar prediction techniques - from thebarcaroller

South Pacific Quake & Tsunami July 7 2011

LATEST: OCTOBER 22 2011
Geonet NZ records a M.4 in the Raoul Is area of the Kermadecs. No extended tsunami warning.

The seismograph from Geonet NZ showing the drum closest to the epicenter
CLICK TO ENLARGE
The quake at epicentre was M7.6

The reading in NZ from the Kermadec quake - source Geonet NZ

The unfolding aftershocks as at 12.30 pm - source Geonet NZ

A one metre high wave has been observed around Raoul Isand, to the west of the epicentre, and the Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre feels the shock wave is most likely to travel east-west rather than north-south.


As a consequence, New Zealand may see more disturbed or strong currents rather than a recognisable wave. Either way, reports are coming in of a minimal Civil Defence presence and in places, no warning activations at the coasts, reinforcing prior indications of a poor level of preparedness, should a significant event arise.

Return for updates

Later analysis indicates that the marine threat level has further reduced, but as in the past this event ought to be regarded as a drill or preparedness opportunity.

Have located a dedicated environmental event blog run by NZ'er Rik Tindall - useful for the collection of data and visuals AND because, like me, he sees the systemic connections between remote seismic events -something traditional geoscientists say does not exist.

Tindall recommends this NZ tsunami warning website 

Latest aftershock data USGS  12.30pm


One theory of solar dynamics says when the sun is in solar minimum, volcanic and seismic activity increases.


Even the insurance industry agrees with this proposal


Update 5.45 pm July 7

                                         Geonet NZ readings at 5.45pm as aftershocks continue (total 13 so far)


Updates July 8 -
The USGS Summary Poster:
Sample view below -click for full access.
Note that UTC universal time gives July 6 event (July 7 local time)

                                                                        Source USGS

                                                   Updated seismograph as dated local time

 Update July 10

The Kermadecs are hogging the limelight in terms of global seismic activity. (USGS) See the quake drum  ( these links will alter and data expire over time) A USGS search shows interesting  foreshock activity for June 21 (UTC) when there were 2 occasions when Christchurch had an event over M4.0, soon followed by what seems like a resonant response in the Kermadecs, both sets within 24 hours:
Christchurch M4.1 followed  2 minutes later by Kermadec M4.7
Christchurch M5.2 followed  70 minutes later by Kermadec M4.9
Note these are USGS times and assessments, not local readings

Update July 13

Today,local times

M3.7 Christchurch 4.22pm
M5.2 Kermadecs 5.06pm
Update July 15 ( Full Moon ) 

M3.0 Christchurch 4.14pm

M?    Kermadecs approx 4.37 pm

Update July 16
An uptick in the Kermadecs with several events over M5.0
Christchurch M4.4 11.11 am, eastern seafloor off Clifton 

Update July 18

M5.2 in the lower Kermadec Trench last night - details
Meanwhile in the mainland NZ volcanic zone check out the drums
Central Indonesian volcano Mt Lokon continues eruptive activity

Update July 19

Kermadecs continue with regular M5+ events.
Inchbonnie drum in the Arthur's Pass alpine fault area showing regular activity, with minor red spikes on the quake drum. Could be the one to watch. (today's reading will expire in 24hrs)

Update July 20

By my usual source, dream-time, 4 a.m. today, (this last occurred 2 days before the Japan tsunami, March 2011, without specific detail) have received  on waking at 4a.m. a specific date of August 2 for a very significant tsunami.
Other than the exact date the only other details are:

Pacific, capital T Tsunami

I interpret this as a major tsunami event in the Pacific Ocean on August 2 2011.

My assumption is that NZ will be affected.

A later dream this morning involved my trying to leave in a hurry, but having difficulties, then viewing a normal road accessway flooded and trying to decide if it was passable.

It may be of value to regard this specific date as a time to prepare for with safety plans, if you are in a vulnerable, low-lying South Pacific location.
A Pacific tsunami event obviously entails a generating earthquake or major undersea subsidence. No indicators came through regarding this, suggesting that the tsunami is the principal event in terms of impact.

Conversely if this premonition turns out to be inaccurate, you will at least have worked through your safety routine. Inevitably, it will be needed. 

South of Fiji today (local time) M5.0, M5.2 -552-588kms deep
Kermadecs continue activity nearby.
USGS shows the region is jam-packed with activity M5+

For planetary influences related to August 2

The preceding New moon, July31 local time, has Sun-Moon Leo square Jupiter in Taurus. Jupiter is semiquare the South node, sesqui the North Node ( Gemini-Sag). Mars in Gemini is linked in forming a conjunction to the South Node -the midpoint is 1 degree from exact semisquare to Jupiter. Add in of course the Pluto-Uranus square and Mercury opposite Neptune. More aspects are visible in a theoretical time of 2am, Aug 2 northern NZ

                                                           Large view with aspect grid

Chiron-Neptune hug the MC opposite Mercury-Moon on the IC. (PIS-VIRG polarity)

AC is exact in aspecting the Nodes (GEM-SAG complete the mutable set)

Sun square Jupiter.

The Sun-Jupiter midpoint, 24 GEM is the Mars-S-Node midpoint.

Pluto aspects the Taurus AC just prior to this time and Venus is in tight conection to the Uranus-Pluto square.

An indicative chart, in itself, is of course no guarantee of an expected outcome, since all the energies involved have multiple complex ways of interacting. This chart does however provide interesting correspondences to the potential for a quake induced tsunami event impacting NZ

Update July 22

M5.1 near Darfield Canterbury 5.39 am followed by M5.0 Kermadecs 7.12 am local time and another M5.0 after 11a.m.
Rik Tindall adds further links between recent resonating seismic activity

Update July 23
Kermadecs quiet so far today, but for an overall recent Pacific seismic summary go to Recent Pacific Quakes
Update July 27
Two shallow seafloor quakes M5+ Gulf of California dated July 26
Recent high readings of electron density in this region (July 28)

Update July 28

Volcanic activity Hawaii

Update July 29

Events south of Fiji

-23.637S latitude

179.805 longitude

528.0 kms deep initial M6.7 event

Update August 1
Several events over M6.0 since July 29:
recent summary of events over M6+ clustering around New Moon  (S) = seafloor
Fiji                    M6.7   (S) July 29    Universal Time (UTC)
Japan              M6.4   (S) July 30
Vanuatu          M6.2   (S) July 31
North PNG        M6.8   (S) July 31
Japan              M6.2    (S) Aug 1

The Kermedec region also continues to have events over M5.0, most recently
M5.2   (S)  August 1

Data source: USGS

Prior seismic history of the Kermadecs and related South Pacific plate boundary zones is quite dramatic: see USGS list

Update August 2

Certainly a lot of significant undersea activity in the South and West pacific Ring of Fire but no tsunami-generating event to report by 11a.m. 

Update August 3

Fiji seaflloor east of Suva 2 events M5+ today, but no tsunami generating quake has occurred as per earlier dream forecast.
Summary from USGS
Fiji                 M5.8    (S) Aug 2

Fiji                two M5+ (S) Aug 3
Kermadecs    M5.0    (S)  Aug 3
Indonesia     two M5+(S) Aug 3
PNG              two M5+(S) Aug 3
Vanuatu        M5.1 (S)     Aug 3
 

 
 

 

 -23.637S latitude

  179.805 longitude

 528.0 kms deep initial M6.7 event

No Assurance: Insurance - the tide has turned

                Stress Toy  - source Amazon.com

Since 2011, you could be forgiven for feeling that the tide has turned on the viability of insurance, yet for many it is a non-negotiable situation, a requisite to secure an asset for one's creditors.
But the buck has to stop somewhere, and it does when the risk exceeds the tipping point for the insurer, the re-insurer and whoever rides above that level. Swiss Re is one of the big global players.

Wikipedia describes Insurance as:
a risk management technique primarily used to hedge against the risk of a contingent, uncertain loss that may be suffered by those individuals or entities who have an insurable interest in scarce resources, by transferring the possibility of this loss from one interested person, persons, or entity to another.
The scarce resources referred to here fall into three divisions: human resources, financial resources, and capital, or tangible resources.
In the context of insurance, scarce resources are also known as "exposures," because they are "exposed" to perils, those things, or forces, which cause destruction or reduction, in the usefulness, or value, of an exposed resource. Human resources are thus exposed to perils such as illness or death; financial resources to legal judgements that may result from negligent acts, and capital resources to physical perils such as fire, theft, windstorm, and vandalism, to name but a few.
A hazard is the cause of a peril. e.g. an earthquake causes damage and destruction.

          For latest updates scroll to end of post

A 2011 Herald feature by Peter Huck on this subject, particularly the changing climate, both environmentally and fiscally, threatening the capacity of insurance to cope. 

June 27 2011 in New Zealand we hear that Civic Assurance, which insures local government organisations, will not renew cover for property in respect of the Christchurch and Waimakariri Councils. Their policies thus end on June 30 2011 and they will have to shop elsewhere. Furthermore, the same change of policy will be applied by Civic to other councils in NZ. They will all have to shop around and pay a higher price for cover. Civic is in fact owned by local councils, but it cannot get re-insurers to back it. Councils will have to go cap in hand to central government to sort out this further mess.

NZ now faces local council insurance premiums increasing up to 400% and the flow on effects from Christchurch & Waimakariri being uninsured place public amenities in jeopardy. Infrastructure that is below ground -water, sewerage and possibly power are most likely to be excluded from cover.

The effect is that policies on this civic level have been radically rewritten and the same changes will occur with policies for individual property owners. 


This news only adds to the maelstrom of woes facing Canterbury. When the failure level extends from the personal, to possessions, to local infrastructure, to lifestyle, to the face of a city, to the functioning of local government, the alarm bells are on full volume.
Like a stress toy, people are being squeezed from both ends.

Understanding insurance is a key to knowing why this system is being severely challenged. There are almost endless types of insurance (Any risk that can be quantified can potentially be insured - WIKIPEDIA) but the one most problematic at the moment would be the various examples covered by the term property

In terms of property insurance, basically a resource is assessed in terms of its potential to fail, be lost, damaged or destroyed.

Astro-Analysis Section:

In astrology Taurus  covers material objects in general, personal possessions.
Pluto is resonant with shared resources - community or held in partnership
Saturn shares the same energy as with fear/risk aversion, the concept of insurance, loss, failure, wrecks, ruins.
Uranus features in unexpected events, sudden changes, earthquakes, electrical/electronic systems


In June 2011 Pluto's zodiac position is moving back from 7 to 6 degrees Capricorn
                    Uranus ranges from 4 to 4.5 degrees of Aries
                    Saturn ranges from 10.5 to 10.7 degrees of Libra

The 3 zodiac signs are seasonal markers (solstice and equinox) and as such Aries is opposite Libra, with Capricorn at end of year. This seasonal connection gives these signs (and their 4th member, Cancer,)  powerful elemental energies.

The positions in June show that Pluto has been sitting at the mathematical middle point of the positions of Uranus and Saturn. ( quick maths show that 7 is the midpoint of 4 and 10 degree positions. This is very significant. Pluto and its corresponding issues - those relevant here, noted earlier, is in a stressing right angle or 90 degree position in respect of the merging energies of Uranus and Saturn.

Look at the keywords outlined earlier for these 3 planetary positions and  put these into a context of stress, disharmony conflict, generated by the 90 degree angle of Pluto and the current situation in Christchurch is a very clear match, showing that this global pattern has a particular relevance to the geographic location of Canterbury-Christchurch. Be assured that other places, not necessarily reported on our limited news services, will be facing these same issues now and into the future, as a consequence of extreme weather or natural events.


The Future
So what happens once the June 2011 pattern ends? Little if any respite, since similar themes are perpetuated by new patterns over the next 5 years.

 We have already turned the corner into a most turbulent period, on multiple levels. 2011 in particular has allowed people to work out that something particularly powerful is occurring in the world involving both massive political upheaval and new structures put in place. But that is not all: Earth itself in undergoing restructuring. But neither of these matters will resolve quickly
The structure of many known things will alter: governments, systems, organizations. Property and resources are central to these changes,  meaning our relationship to these things is shifting, marked by reduced resources. Changing attitudes to things Conflict in 2013, 2014 over resources.  Drought will feature before and including 2016 in vulnerable parts of the globe.

Many believe a more significant global economic meltdown is waiting in the wings. 


In the simplest of terms, insurance as we know it, may be a waste of money since the insurers may be unable to cover against increasing risk and in the face of further bankrupting events, few if any may be paid out. Higher premiums will also lead to high rates of uninsured property. The tide has turned. In the view ahead, having insurance could be more risky than not having it.


Consider some options that are far simpler and far less materialistically embedded if you want to bear the coming years with far less angst.



Update July 7

 An interesting blog post from Brent Walker, an Australian member of the financial risk aka insurance industry, noting the link between solar minimum periods ( which we are in now) and increased seismic, volcanic events. Lots of data provided.

Scientific paper online re this topic

Update Sept 25 2011
Reinsurers may wait until 2014 at the earliest to take on further risk in Christchurch

Also refer to Christchurch Shakes Again and Again for seismic updates & commentary.

2012

January 5 2012

Read the global stats re insurance claims in 2011 -this article adds to the text of this post

Excerpt from Chch Press:

Natural disasters, led by catastrophic earthquakes in Japan and New Zealand, cost a record US$380 billion (NZ$483b) last year, more than double the figure for 2010 and triple the average for the past decade, insurance experts have reported.

April 2012

 Insurance woes continue in Christchurch following 4 major phases of quake events, commencing Sept 2010 - report

2013
March 19
Insurance matters are still unresolved on a large scale in Christchurch, but this is not just a local problem

Refer to
Sarah Miles book:
The Christchurch Fiasco : the Insurance Aftershock and its Implications for New Zealand and Beyond 

Jay Feinman's book Delay Deny Defend on insurance issues for policy holders