Saturday 30 July 2011

NASA Sunspot Predictions - from Maximum to Minimum

If the Sun had ramped up it's magnetic energy from 2007 and was on target to reach dizzying heights in sunspot numbers by 2012, we could expect to get nervous about the sorts of impacts forewarned in You Tube videos on Solar Storm Warnings, coinciding with 2012.
Instead the Sun confused NASA scientists and failed to kick into Cycle 24 until 2009. Since then, the results have been far from spectacular, leaving many to switch forecasts from Maximum to Minimum.
Many online reports say NASA issued a 2010 warning re flares and a huge space storm whilst also declaring a Deep Solar Minimum and the two conditions are not mutually exclusive. A recent NASA news release (June 2011) still talks of such a storm, which is possible even in a below-average sunspot cycle - since one happened before (1859 Carrington Event). As for confirming a date. No such luck in this uncertain area of science.
Also,if we do observe very low sunspot levels in 2012-2014, seen in the last similar era the Maunder Minimum of 1645-1715, very cold winters could be the result.
Read how NASA has made a series of predictions for Solar Cycle 24 - here
The following History Channel video discusses a coming solar storm and reiterates NASA's original forecast for a possible 2012 event ( which now seems too early)  It is shown here for educational purposes.

Update August 2 2011
Solar data to die for the Solar Terrestrial Activity Report in depth with great graphics
Sunspots 1261 and 1263 are expected to harbour X-class flares
James Marusek Impact website -a nuclear physicist worth listening to re solar activity:
 "the sun has entered a changed state" he says.
At length he describes the systemic breakdown that will occur if a major geomagnetic storm knocked out power grids for an extended period

Update April 26 2012 
Read also post on Solar Cycle 24 is Odd












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