Friday, 15 July 2011

The Next Financial Meltdown (2012) is not a movie

Before looking ahead, I urge each of you readers to watch the award winning movie The Inside Job (2010) by Charles Ferguson.
Here is a brief trailer, just a taste of what the full length documentary movie reveals.
Even if you feel you already know the full extent of the corrupt practices which underscored the 2008 crash in America and resulting recession. Even if you feel you've decided it will never happen again.
   For 2015 updates scroll to end of post
This documentary reveals the deeply embedded system in America, designed to create millions in profit for the engineers of the set up. Way beyond the realm of high roller casino gambling, the financial system embroiled in the 2008 crash is based on the schemes and dreams of men who play with multiple millions of dollars, at the expense of the everyday citizen. Rotten to the core, but still very much alive, the industry is loaded with Dead Men Walking, bankrupt in every manner possible, aside from their personal fortunes.
Shockingly, for New Zealanders, our current Prime Minister, John Key, learnt his financial trading skills in the employment of  Merrill Lynch, one of the top American finance companies, named and shamed in this movie.

Raghuram Rajan, University of Chicage, Professor of Finance, features in The Inside Job.
Has Financial Development Made the World Riskier? is one of his key papers (2005)
His most recent book (2010) is titled:
Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the World Economy
 Also see reference to Rajan in this recent post.

The story, clearly, does not end in 2008.
If you, like millions of Americans thought the election of Barack Obama would see all that was wrong, evil, corrupt and unjust magically eradicated in the USA, you will understand, in watching this movie,that the President, as figurehead, is far less empowered than you could ever imagine. The appointments made, in his regime, re top financial advisories and controls, simply resume as normal the agendas of the past, pre-recession. This realisation alone will rock you, if you hold out hope that good always wins out over evil, because seriously negative forces are in control of America. They are known collectively as the finance sector.

In other words, the 2008 events, from the perspective of those who wheel and deal with your money, were just a blip, a temporary stutter. It's now business as usual, and in a bigger better way than before. You are witnessing human immorality, selective blindness, addiction and corruption at its most sophisticated, entrenched and determined. It is truly frightening.

Such conduct is ultimately anti-nature as well, because it acts in defiance of larger cyclic forces which are capable of obliterating anything and everything that humans have created.
Financiers have some inkling of this and scores of papers and books have been published with different versions of the primary factors which drive the cycles. Not surprising then that a substantial body of traders rely (discreetly) on planetary indicators of bull and bear markets, commodity highs and lows etc. After all, Kings, Queens and Presidents throughout history have done the same regarding territory and war, but in a hush-hush way. The Merriman Market Analyst is one such example of a contemporary Wizard providing tips on trading opportunities, based on planetary cycles.
Ray Merriman's April 2011 Report is worth a read and also look at his Weekly Previews along with any other similar planetary based market predictions you may locate online, because opinions and interpretations will vary.

HuffPost says this week: Sovereign Debt Crisis is Now Global

The bottom line is: 2012 could see the start of a major recession/ classic Depression.

The term Perfect Storm has not entered common usage just because of a gripping movie. We are living in times so complex and powerful, that the scenario of factors combining to create mega-events is unmistakeable. They have already begun - from 2008 and sustained through to 2016, with flow on effects for many years beyond that focal period. Be assured that the environment/climate will play a much more significant role than in the 1930's. Be assured that globalization will assist in the contagion.

There is enough time for those who wish to re-establish themselves in a more modest way and with greater self-sufficiency, but some major life changes are likely to be entailed.
The more embedded you are in the systems that will fail, the more you will face losing. This includes that cash assets you may have in the markets and banks.
Conversely, those who have little now, have little if anything to lose.

Update
Renowned American libertarian socialist, Noam Chomsky writes of the preceding era:
There was also a sharp change in the U.S. economy in the 1970s, towards financialization and export of production. A variety of factors converged to create a vicious cycle of radical concentration of wealth, primarily in the top fraction of 1% of the population -- mostly CEOs, hedge-fund managers, and the like. That leads to the concentration of political power, hence state policies to increase economic concentration: fiscal policies, rules of corporate governance, deregulation, and much more.
Meanwhile the costs of electoral campaigns skyrocketed, driving the parties into the pockets of concentrated capital, increasingly financial: the Republicans reflexively, the Democrats -- by now what used to be moderate Republicans -- not far behind.
Chomsky adds: ...financial crises that began as the regulatory apparatus was dismantled starting in the 1980s. 
As long as the general population is passive, apathetic, diverted to consumerism or hatred of the vulnerable, then the powerful can do as they please, and those who survive will be left to contemplate the outcome.
And before we laugh, we might also bear in mind that the current economic crisis is traceable in no small measure to the fanatic faith in such dogmas as the efficient market hypothesis, and in general to what Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz, 15 years ago, called the "religion" that markets know best -- which prevented the central bank and the economics profession from taking notice of an $8 trillion housing bubble that had no basis at all in economic fundamentals, and that devastated the economy when it burst. 
The full political-economic text is worth reading   source


Update July 17
Merriman's latest post on urgent issues facing America
In New Zealand are we in a situation far removed from American style economics? The answer, is of course, No.
Liam Dann writing in the Herald says:
If it's a boom why are so many feeling bust?
Disconnect between figures and what economy feels like has people questioning statistics
And if you haven't yet watched The Inside Job, you will still assume that ratings agencies like Moody's, Standard and Poor's actually have some sort of god-like intelligence and the independence of a saint. Under questioning, as seen in the movie, they will only reiterate the Mantra of the Unaccountable:
It's Only An Opinion


Update July 18
Arnold Bock reiterates my conclusions re 2012 and the Perfect Storm in this article
A Financial Crisis in 2012 is Inevitable! Here’s Why, located today, from the website Financial Sense

Confirmed by more commentary by a planetary analyst

For those needing some keyword help to understand planetary concepts as discussed in political contexts.



Update July 19
Commentary on financial meltdown from America using various sources


Here's a case study from the 1340's -
How Venice Rigged The First, and Worst, Global Financial Collapse yes over 600 years ago - Human behaviour has changed little.
From a planetary point of view, in the mid 1340's the two big players prominent today, Pluto and Uranus were conjunct and in the cardinal sign Aries, marking the start of a long term cycle.

Update July 30
For a while I did'nt really get John Key's (NZ Prime Minister) fascination with Obama, other than of course the obvious narcissism of worshipping someone with a very similar planetary lineup -they were born the same week in 1961 -Obama August 4, Key August 9. Different times, different countries, but hey, enough shared energy for a bromance. 
Now, since hearing Yves Smith talking ( author of ECONned: How Unenlightened Self Interest Undermined Democracy and Corrupted Capitalism)  and accessing her blog website Naked Capitalism, it is possible to see Obama as further to the right than his voting public could ever have believed. Similarly, Centre Right is where John Key positions himself, yet a lot of his opinions on social issues depict a  position much further to the right. Two men with a chameleon ability, a charismatic charm, a dangerous capacity to mislead.
Obama's exact birth-time is known so correct chart analysis is possible. This chart link gives some interpretation, but overlooks that central aspect: Neptune tightly square Sun-Mercury for Obama and we find Neptune tightly square Mercury, widely square Sun, for Key -  lies, deceit, dishonesty, fudging, being creative with the facts. Mercury is what you say, how you think, your method of communication.
With Neptune in Scorpio, both are with-holding information, holding onto secrets. They speak the same language and they are far more aligned than their overt politics suggest.


Update August 6
This video has just been brought to my attention. Here in NZ these American economics authors may not have hit the radar yet, since they failed to initially get any mainstream coverage in the US.
The offer of a free copy is now expired but the video alone is well worth watching. Time will tell whether 2012 -or 2013 -as highlighted in the video - is the major collapse point.
In a just published interview, the authors reveal what this means for the average citizen  - expect many of the consequences noted to have global similarities.
August 16
Nouriel Roubini is also worth reading


September 27


Of course events during August-Sept 2011 only confirm the trends evident to observers across the world. Heres a new video featuring a market trader, which seems to have slipped through the BBC, shocking the interviewer with his level of candor about the current and upcoming economic reality

October 6 2011
IMF warns of global recession risk in 2012

October 7 2011 
Banking meltdown imminent says IMF advisor

Updates 2012
Jan 16 -  The Collapse of China
Jan  19 - The World Bank puts the globe on notice
             - The Warning Signs are there for all to see
Jan 31 - Bankers Report Anxiety  a sobering NZ survey from inside the industry
April 12 - BBC video on the return of bartering to the Greek town of Volos
                                                                                              
April 14 2012 -  NZ columnist Brian Gaynor writes about why the New Zealand economy is basically in crisis compared to neighbourhood nation Australia - report
April 26 2012
Helen Clark, former NZ Prime Minister makes reference to this global report re causes such as over-population and over consumption and their impacts on economic and environmental crises  in this present century - report

2013 updates
April 2013
A confused economic picture globally with signs pointing in both directions, but warnings remain in place that the rot has not been excised from the system.
Human nature will lead many again into the folly of debt and pre-crisis lending behaviour by banks in New Zealand for housing investment is again commonplace
IMF report
Auckland housing boom warning

March 2013
The dangerous aspect of the present era is the capacity for misinformation to prevail in all manner of circumstances.
Though profound collapse has not yet affected global markets, the disease factors are ever present.

March 11 Telegraph UK business editor reports on the global economy
Sputtering global economy belies stockmarket boom
Asia's economic recovery is losing momentum and Europe's slump is proving deeper than expected, raising concerns that soaring stock markets globally have jumped ahead of economic reality.
full report  

November 17 2013
I recently watched Niall Ferguson's series China Triumph & Turmoil [ You Tube has 4 episodes] in order to understand the mind of the dragon nation - now as we face an increasingly easternized world - see this post also related to Ferguson's proposals for an historical shift
While watching the episode related to the famine in the years surrounding 1960 -the Great Chinese Famine 1958-1961 with mass fatalities from starvation on account of a mega failure of Maoist policy involving greatly reduced food production, coupled with drought & adverse weather I was very interested to se the astrological picture in effect at that time and the connections to the astrology of China

To select a "birth" chart for a nation is not easy because there can be many new beginnings. When the Chinese Soviet Republic chart [1931] is considered there is much more of current relevance than the People's Republic chart [1949]
source
   I believe the austerity,famine, drought, large scale transformational energy of this chart was activated during the Great China Famine - and that it will be activated again in the period starting in the middle of 2015, further strengthening from March 2016, noticeably as 2017 begins, throughout 2017, sustained through 2018, 2019

In the China Soviet chart:

  • Saturn 18 Capricorn-Pluto 22 Cancer both at 90 degree angle to Uranus at 16 Aries with midpoint of 19 Cardinal are the energy points about to be re-awakened
The Energy Re-visited:
  • The process begins from 2015 with Uranus, Pluto and Saturn all activating the 16-22 degrees of the cardinal signs Aries and Capricorn 
  • The spectre of drought-related food shortages and severe reductions in production is revisited with Saturn passing through the growth and production sign Sagittarius in the period 2015-2017

The Consequences
  • The scale of impact gives rise to considerations of an economic meltdown impacting the world -but which originates in China -not in the West eg the Eurozone - as many expect. Global effects are now the consequence of globalisation & the expanded footprint China has in multiple countries

The Deeper Meaning:

Activations of the cardinal signs Aries, Libra, Cancer, Capricorn signify gross imbalances come to light and must be corrected.
Humanity faces the agenda preprogrammed by natural forces


In the Great China Famine:
Saturn was in Sagittarius in 1957-1958 = the decline in growth & production [Saturn returns to Sagittarius in late Dec 2014-late Dec 2017]
Environmental factors very relevant as well as policy effects
Saturn was in Capricorn 1959, 1960, 1961 = extreme austerity phase

With Sun-Mercury-Venus in Scorpio in the China-Soviet chart - transformational periods are very natural in the course of China's modern history.
Pluto [by connection to Scorpio] is therefore very relevant and having intense links to Saturn [by opposition] and Uranus [by 90 degree square] the potential for cycles of mass disaster, death, annihilation and destruction are anticipated both in the human and natural environments

November 26 2013
The Pope has released a document defining his papacy. His comments of capitalism as "a new tyranny" are very relevant in this time of major social, economic, political & environmental upheaval since he essentially is pointing out the gross imbalances underlying inequality and poverty
The full text of his address [in English] can be accessed via this link    
Related news report in The Independent


2015 updates
2014 has passed and the meltdown is yet to occur, despite multiple sources seeing relevant indicators.
One important reminder as stated here in 2013
Saturn returns to Sagittarius in late Dec 2014 & exits late Dec 2017.
This is a global indicator of restrained growth.
The period 2015, 2016 2017 represents a high potentiality for a significant global downturn.
This could occur as soon as 2015.

Capricorn and therefore its connected planet Saturn carry the energy of banks and the banking system.
Libra relates to finance in general, accountancy [balancing the books]
These two Cardinal signs are highly affected by the dominant transformational energy of the period 2012-2016   -the revolutionary impetus of Pluto in Capricorn offset at 90 degrees to Uranus in Aries.
It seems that the tail end of the cycle is where the fruit is - where real change for the better is possible.
A major economic crisis provides much positive opportunity to create collectively better systems.

note: for what it's worth, since "sensitive degrees" are found to cluster around events of similar nature: 
Saturn, the Sun and Neptune all conjunct at 7degrees [in Sagittarius and Pisces] at the end of Nov 2015-start of Dec.
the lunar nodes are at 26-27 degrees in mid Dec 2015

In August 2007 as the GFC began to unfold:
the lunar nodes were at 7 Pisces  
Saturn was at 27 degrees
Chiron at 13 degrees [Aquarius]

In October 1929 the Wall St Crash precipitating the Great Depression;
Saturn was at 26 degrees
Chiron and the nodes at 13 & 12 degrees [Taurus]
 
 
 

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