The end of 2012 sees a supposed slowdown in quake activity leading local scientists to announce:
There is now a 29 per cent chance of a magnitude 5.5 to 5.9 hitting before November 9, 2013, a 9 per cent possibility of a magnitude 6.0 to 6.4, and a 2 per cent chance of 6.5 to 6.9 aftershock.
There is just a 1 in 100 chance of another magnitude 7.0 or higher like the 7.1 which struck Darfield on September 4, 2010, sparking the Canterbury earthquake sequence."
"The probability of a large earthquake hitting Canterbury continues to decline as the earthquake sequence settles down, says GeoNet. Latest aftershock probabilities show the chance of a magnitude 5.0 to 5.4 aftershock happening in the next year is now at 69 per cent - compared to 71 per cent last month and 82 per cent in January.
There is now a 29 per cent chance of a magnitude 5.5 to 5.9 hitting before November 9, 2013, a 9 per cent possibility of a magnitude 6.0 to 6.4, and a 2 per cent chance of 6.5 to 6.9 aftershock.
There is just a 1 in 100 chance of another magnitude 7.0 or higher like the 7.1 which struck Darfield on September 4, 2010, sparking the Canterbury earthquake sequence."
as reported in NZ Herald Nov 21, 2012
click to enlarge
This graphic[ above] from canterburyquakelive
This graphic[ above] from canterburyquakelive
shows the enduring activity of the current sequence over the past year. It has had many more supposed decays and declines than any of the other sequences shown, followed by rebounds. The general trend looks to be down even to the non-specialist observer -but is that what is really going on?
To accept and believe in a clear and definite reduction, i.e. in effect a cessation in earthquake activity in the larger Canterbury region, may be too much to hope for, given the unusual and unexpected seismic features in the period since Sept 4 2010 and the unpredictability element associated with natural forces of this type.
The previously active Pegasus Bay area is seemingly quiet but as recently as June-mid November 2012 featured a string of quakes many would not be aware of (Canterburyquakelive graphic)
I continue to regard the Pegasus Bay area as a vulnerability, and to locals, the source of further unexpected activity, (the "hidden" factor of being sub-marine, not land based, a dark horse element if you like. Pegasus of course being the winged horse of Greek mythology). There is a clear west to east progression in the aftershock sequences and in view of the current global condition of increasing extreme weather, and in the context of a holistic interpretation, associated geophysical stresses and strains are likely to be exacerbated, rather than lessened.
This consideration of the broader picture suggests a resumption of more significant seismic activity in the region may have a greater probability than standard models deduce.
As at Jan 2 2013, the last 100 quakes in Canterbury, M3.0 and over. See how the intense dark area is indicative of the amount of earth movement within a concentrated area, heading into the bay.
The very latest on Jan 2 was in Pegasus Bay (purple area) -source canterburyquakelive
Further reading: Background posts on this site reference the events in Canterbury in detail as well as some opinion re the pattern of unfoldment provided as an alternative viewpoint to standard scientific modelling.
Refererence:
For some initial seismological data on the Canterbury Earthquakes refer to this video
The previously active Pegasus Bay area is seemingly quiet but as recently as June-mid November 2012 featured a string of quakes many would not be aware of (Canterburyquakelive graphic)
This consideration of the broader picture suggests a resumption of more significant seismic activity in the region may have a greater probability than standard models deduce.
As at Jan 2 2013, the last 100 quakes in Canterbury, M3.0 and over. See how the intense dark area is indicative of the amount of earth movement within a concentrated area, heading into the bay.
The very latest on Jan 2 was in Pegasus Bay (purple area) -source canterburyquakelive
Further reading: Background posts on this site reference the events in Canterbury in detail as well as some opinion re the pattern of unfoldment provided as an alternative viewpoint to standard scientific modelling.
Refererence:
For some initial seismological data on the Canterbury Earthquakes refer to this video
Also read: 2013 updates on Canterbury-Christchurch earthquakes
