The West Declines - astro analysis of Niall Ferguson's premise

A minority of humanity
 originating on the western edge of Eurasia
 has dominated the world
for the better part of 500 years

A profound shift in the global balance of power is underway

Is the West history, giving way to the rest of the world? 

These ideas are expounded by Professor Niall Ferguson -

and examined from an astrological perspective to see what cycles might be in process

click on maps to enlarge Top: global economies March 2012; Below: territories once part of the British Empire

Harvard history professor Niall Ferguson, in his documentary series Civilization - is the West history? - looks at changes in western economies and their demise - and how the rest of the world may well be in the ascendency.

If in the year 1411 you had been able to circumnavigate the globe,

 you would have been most impressed by the dazzling civilizations of the Orient...

By contrast, England would have struck you as a miserable backwater

ravaged by plague, bad sanitation and incessant war

Ferguson: Civilization The West and the Rest

 Looking at the contrasting histories of North & South America as an example of different pathways of development within the past 500 years. The overall economic pathways of North and South America diverged greatly despite both territories being subjected to colonizing powers. Democracy and private ownership featured principally in the new north American colony. The north had embraced European concepts of law, politics and the capacity for the individual citizen to have some semblance at least of sharing in the bounty and management of their nation.
In South America, the supposed great liberator [from the Spanish] Simon Bolivar concluded the people were not ready for the politics of the north and thus authoritarianism was the way forward: he proclaimed himself dictator in 1828 and exclusive elites, says Ferguson, prospered at the expense of the general citizenry. Large estates under the control of a few led to the concentration of wealth and thus the enduring empoverishment of many.
 [Interestingly in the West the identification of the 1% and their concentration of wealth has led to the Occupy Movement aimed at redressing increasing power-wealth imbalances]
So the Western economic model and ensuing global power position has been highly successful in building wealth and influence compared to the Rest [though not equally or proportionately across social sectors] and Niall Ferguson proposes the reasons why:
He identifies ...six killer applications he calls the killer apps – that allowed a minority of mankind originating on the western edge of Eurasia to dominate the world for the better part of 500 years. 
For the sake of simplicity, I summarise them under six headings: 1. Competition 2. Science 3. Property rights 4. Medicine 5. The consumer society 6. The work ethic.

Ferguson says that only by assessing the causes of the West's rise to prominence can we gauge the imminence of its decline - and fall.
The rest of the world has clearly begun to utilise many, and in China's case, most of these killers apps while in the West, it seems, the less dominant will to succeed in education, a decline in the work ethic, the economic factors inhibiting rampant debt & consumerism show key areas where western values are shifting significantly. 

A profound shift in the global balance of power is underway - says Ferguson.
This can be tracked economically since the 1980's in % of GDP - and in particular in that regard since around 2003 when comparing US with China -after a reign of western dominance from the 1500's

He sees the world tilting back to 600 years ago -when the East was dominant.

As an astrologer it intrigued me to consider what long term cycles might match up with Ferguson's proposal.

Pluto in Scorpio comes as first prime suspect.

It's full cycle is 248 years - so 2 cycles cover a 500 year period.

Ferguson nominates the year 1500 approximately as the dawning of Western ascendancy

Pluto was in late Scorpio at the start of 1500 (Julian calendar)

But Pluto alone is insufficient

The karmic signpost [lunar nodal axis] came to exact alignment with Pluto in December 1500 - mean position 26Taurus/Scorpio35 -  or true node position of 27.09 in January 1501 [Julian calendar]

It is not until February 1994 that Pluto in late Scorpio again aligned with the nodal axis -  but the flipside occurred in terms of the polarity -i.e. with Scorpio now the North position and Taurus the South - the reverse of 1501.  [mean nodal position of 28.04, true position 28.03]

So in simple terms with rounded figures

1501 - Pluto is opposite the North Node in Taurus at 27 degrees & conjunct the south Node in Scorpio

1994 - Pluto is conjunct the North Node in Scorpio at 28 degrees & opposite the south Node in Taurus

Why would Pluto, the lunar nodes and the signs Taurus-Scorpio have any bearing on global economic dominance?

In the simplest of terms these factors have the following keyword associations:

Taurus - individual money, wealth, materialism, the physical everyday world

Scorpio - institutional wealth, transformational & regenerative forces; the metaphysical level; power issues

Pluto - the cosmic force that delivers the cards dealt by Scorpio

Lunar Nodes -  collective destiny; the wheel of karma -what has been and what is to come

Pluto, when in contact with the lunar nodes, whether viewed collectively, or in the life of an individual, is regarded as a signifier of accelerated evolutionary energy.

The Pluto-Taurus-Scorpio-Nodes combination is easily equivalent to the essence of Ferguson's investigation:  shifts in the global balance of power

Does this suggest Ferguson is right in his sense of the shift from West to East & the Rest?

Most definitely. 

The long term astrological picture as described coincides with the timing as outlined by Ferguson.

The ingredients conform to the nature of his focus: a reversal in global economic & cultural dominance.

When Pluto exactly aligned with the transformational energy of the Scorpio South node in 1501, the rise of the West as the dominant economic power, was beginning

When Pluto exactly aligned with the transformational Scorpio forces of the North node in 1994, the rise of the East as the dominant economic power, was beginning.

If this pattern holds true, there truly is a colossal flip going on, and the West is in decline -and one which could extend until 2487. Warning signs in the West include signs of systemic failure - of economics, government policies, social fabric in meltdown. If you reflect on the opposing question: Is the West in an ascendant phase?, the answer is clearly No

It is, after all, all about cycles and their natural waxing and waning.

Update:

November 17 2013

I recently watched Niall Ferguson's series China Triumph & Turmoil [ You Tube has 4 episodes] in order to understand the mind of the dragon nation - now as we face an increasingly easternized world - see this post also related to Ferguson's proposals for an historical shift

While watching the episode related to the famine in the years surrounding 1960 -the Great Chinese Famine 1958-1961 with mass fatalities from starvation on account of a mega failure of Maoist policy involving greatly reduced food production, coupled with drought & adverse weather I was very interested to see the astrological picture in effect at that time and the connections to the astrology of China

To select a "birth" chart for a nation is not easy because there can be many new beginnings. When the Chinese Soviet Republic chart [1931] is considered there is much more of current relevance than the People's Republic chart [1949]

source

   I believe the austerity, famine, drought, large scale transformational energy of this chart was activated during the Great China Famine - and that it will be activated again in the period starting in the middle of 2015, further strengthening from March 2016, noticeably as 2017 begins, throughout 2017, sustained through 2018, 2019

In the China Soviet chart:

• Saturn 18 Capricorn-Pluto 22 Cancer both at 90 degree angle to Uranus at 16 Aries with midpoint of 19 Cardinal are the energy points about to be re-awakened

The Energy Re-visited:

• The process begins from 2015 with Uranus, Pluto and Saturn all activating the 16-22 degrees of the cardinal signs Aries and Capricorn 
• The spectre of drought-related food shortages and severe reductions in production is revisited with Saturn passing through the growth and production sign Sagittarius in the period 2015-2017
  
  

The Consequences

• The scale of impact gives rise to considerations of an economic meltdown impacting the world -but which originates in China -not in the West as many expect. Global effects are now the consequence of globalisation & the expanded footprint China has in multiple countries

The Deeper Meaning:

Activations of the cardinal signs Aries, Libra, Cancer, Capricorn signify gross imbalances come to light and must be corrected.

Humanity faces the agenda preprogrammed by natural forces

In the Great China Famine:

Saturn was in Sagittarius in 1957-1958 = the decline in growth & production

Environmental factors very relevant as well as policy effects

Saturn was in Capricorn 1959, 1960, 1961 = extreme austerity phase

With Sun-Mercury-Venus in Scorpio in the China-Soviet chart - transformational periods are very natural in the course of China's modern history.

Pluto [by connection to Scorpio] is therefore very relevant and having intense links to Saturn [by opposition] and Uranus [by 90 degree square] the potential for cycles of mass disaster, death, annihilation and destruction are anticipated both in the human and natural environments

Update February 14 2014
Economist Nouriel Roubini is quoted as follows in a recent Guardian article:

Then, there are the over-hyped Brics countries, now falling back to reality. Three of them (Brazil, Russia, and South Africa) will grow more slowly than the United States this year, with real (inflation-adjusted) GDP rising at less than 2.5%, while the economies of the other two (China and India) are slowing sharply. Indeed, Brazil, India, and South Africa are members of the Fragile Five, and demographic decline in China and Russia will undermine both countries' potential growth.

The largest of the Brics, China, faces additional risk stemming from a credit-fuelled investment boom, with excessive borrowing by local governments, state-owned enterprises, and real-estate firms severely weakening the asset portfolios of banks and shadow banks. Most credit bubbles this large have ended up causing a hard economic landing, and China's economy is unlikely to escape unscathed, particularly as reforms to rebalance growth from high savings and fixed investment to private consumption are likely to be implemented too slowly, given the powerful interests aligned against them.

Moreover, the deep causes of last year's turmoil in emerging markets have not disappeared. For starters, the risk of a hard landing in China poses a serious threat to emerging Asia, commodity exporters around the world, and even advanced economies.

Also refer to January 2014 report on China's risky credit boom



Notes:

1994-1501 = 493 year separation which equates to 26.5 lunar nodal cycles [ the 27th cycle was reached in 2003 when the nodes again were 27-28 Taurus/Scorpio but Pluto was not in range - having moved ahead to 18 Sagittarius] ] The lunar nodal cycle is 18.61 years.

If you google lunar nodal cycle you will find various scientific papers of lunar effects on tides/sea levels/climate -  along with astrological interpretations on other sites

also look at Pluto the evolutionary journey of the soul -by Jeff Green

further reading;

System Failure: the West Declines

Ferguson's book: Civilization The West and the Rest

Mao's Great Famine by historian Zhou Xun