Latest: update Oct 13
China import-export data continues downward, with imports a striking 20.4% down in September 2015 vs Sept 2014
Google Search 28 July 2015
China import-export data continues downward, with imports a striking 20.4% down in September 2015 vs Sept 2014
Google Search 28 July 2015
for the phrase china market
is headed by the entry below
Several posts on this site, especially since June 2015, have noted the economic situation facing China.
In one June 2015 report here, this exact issue of commodities freefall was forewarned:
Several posts on this site, especially since June 2015, have noted the economic situation facing China.
The commodities shock then flows into a 3 year period of inhibited growth [ in terms of produce, production, expansion, development]
After that the real austerity energies are laid in place during a 3 year period until December 2020
1924-1932 has many cycles in common with 2012-2020
Boom preceded bust in the US housing market of the 1920's.
Florida investments started to get bad press by January 1925. By 1926 the bust was clear.
The downturn energies in play affecting material asset investments like land and real estate kicked in in late 1924 and remained strong until December 1926.
Then the cycle of inhibited growth began, lasting 3 years, extending just past the big market crash of October 1929.
From December 1929 the austerity energies were embedded - during a period of almost 3 years.
In terms of another longer global cycle, in July 2015 we are at the equivalent energy point to April 1932 even though a great global economic depression is yet to unfold.
The period April 1935 to April 1942 has an energy equivalent to
April 2019 to April 2026.
1935 saw bank closures in the US, the dropping of the gold standard, economic depression was obvious. People were forced to changed their relationship with money and materialist values.
This timeline shows the US economy had widespread impact on citizens through the 1930s, only lifting with the US late entry into WW2 and the war economy uplift beginning in 1942.
A longer cycle having a powerfully transformational effect on peoples families and their homes and housing covered the period 1914-1939.
An equivalent energy exists in the period 2008-2025.
In a very globalized world environment in this millennium, the cycles of this era will contain many reflections of the early decades of the 20th century, in many diverse locations -not just China- but will not unfold exactly in the same sequence or with exactly the same outcomes.
What is clear is that globalization does have a relationship to contagion in market forces.
Climate effects are also of great significance with regard to economies: China is very vulnerable to extremes of flooding and drought as noted by authors of the study THE 1920S DROUGHT RECORDED BY TREE RINGS AND HISTORICAL DOCUMENTS IN THE SEMI-ARID AND ARID AREAS
OF NORTHERN CHINA:
"we show that there had been significant growth decline in the 1920s and early 1930s throughout a wide area of northern China. This growth depression is indicative of a severe and sustained drought in the 1920s and early 1930s.
This period coincides with the inhibited growth period noted earlier for the 1920's and so a largely agricultural effect is known to have occurred then.
Sustained drought, crop failures led to disease and widespread famine in 1927-29:
El Nino conditions in 2015 are already pointing to heat and drought with Northern China low on drinking water.
El Nino events relevant to the above study occurred in the periods 1925-1926, 1930-31, 1932-1933, 1939-1940, 1940-1941, 1941-1942.
The strongest event in recent decades was the 1997-98 El Nino.
Weak El Ninos occurred 2004-2007, Moderate in 2009-10.
The return of El Nino for 2015-2016 is potentially strong to very strong & if a run of El Nino years occurs as in 1930-1933 or 1939-1942 then the flow-on economic effect will also be sustained.
[USGS latest El Nino report worth reading] Use keyword search on this site for related posts.
update Sept 19: Los Angeles California received a deluge in mid September 2015 causing chaos and little relief since the parched earth lacked any useful absorption ability, leaving torrents of water to drain away. - related report
update August 24 as predicted on this blog, China continues to experience sharemarket panic
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