In any extreme public state of emergency there will never be adequate support to rescue the majority of people who need help.
LATEST UPDATES
November 2016
Extensively detailed landslide map shows full magnitude of Kaikoura quakes
Whaler's Bay Kaikoura now features significant unidentified gas [likely carbon dioxide + hydrogen sulphide] release from cracks in the seabed
Significant aftershocks continue a week after the initial quakes - including a M5.7 on 22 November near Culverden, described as severe and felt widely in Christchurch, causing impact damage in the larger region
At least 6 fault ruptures initially identified
The major Pacific-Australian plate has direct significance to twin quakes that were unleashed just minutes into the morning on November 14 - with perfect synchronicity to the largest i.e. closest moon transit of Earth in 2016 [Supermoon Full moon]
Seismologists are yet to release full specifics of what was initially thought to be a single M7.5 in the north Canterbury rural region of 5 km south-south-west of Waiau, Canterbury
Despite the widespread knowledge of tidal bulges under an ordinary lunar event, mainstream thinkers range from anger to arrogance in their dismissal of any possible role played by solar-lunar forces.
Just some of the initially registered seismicity from Culverden to Kaikoura and into the seafloor of Pegasus Bay -
data and images from Quakemap
Fatalities reported at very low level [2] the somewhat isolated and rural region has suffered extensive land/infrastructure effects
Nov 14: Highly vulnerable transit infrastructure covered in a landslip blocks usual route from northern ports at Picton to the eastern centres of the South Island
Nov 14: Another no-go zone in the region of Kaikoura
Although this was not a major tsunami event some activity occurred.
The events related closely to this recent dream:
February 2016
February 2016 has shown repeated seismic unrest in Christchurch
Feb 29 A widely felt, shallow and centrally located M4.3 quake at 3.30 am has intensified the sense of anxiety re the seismic risk in Christchurch.
Despite shaking described as extreme, no initial injury or damage reports notified.
the epicentre in Cashmere
the energy spike that bucks the decay pattern
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| geonet quake drum with M4.3 & lesser quakes |
Feb 17 In a broader context of widespread cuts across the heath sector, including mental health support, hundreds of Christchurch children have been assessed as suffering from post traumatic stress disorder in respect of the ongoing earhquakes since September 2010 but only 8% have received counselling. A university study of a sample of 320 children tracked since 2013 showed 64% had negative mental health indicators -report
Feb 14
The Valentine's Day M5.7 quake on Feb 14 will be easily remembered because many would have thought the trauma would not resume.
The psychological impact has far more significance than the moderate level of structural or material damage caused by the 1.13pm event & its aftershocks.
The return of liquefaction, the return of fear, anxiety and expectation.
The off shore location -some 8kms from land and 15.5kms deep is in the seabed zone regarded in this blog as the most likely source of further significant quakes.
The collapse of a cliif into the sea at Taylor's Mistake, southeast of Sumner was highly visible as tweeted:
Scanning the archived material in this post shows that the seafloor events are capable of producing strong seismic energy - even from lesser magnitudes than M5.
This event in Oct 2013 was M4.6 at 5.5kms deep and around 4kms offshore, north of an indicated fault vs Feb 14 2016 being 4kms further east, deeper and stronger.
2015
November 2015
A report published in September 2015 states that in the aftershock zone of the quake events of 2010-2011 that quake activity remains by September 2015 at nearly 10 times the level of seismic activity prior to those major events - report
In September 2015 there remained a 50% chance of a M5.0-M5.9 in the region.
The message remains: Be Prepared
May 2015
GNS Science published report places even higher emphasis on the megathrust risk in central NZ
The braided [known] faults in the map below indicate the seismic threads embedded in the upper South Island and seafloor.
Resumed quake activity in 2015 in the Seddon region/Cook Strait and a significant M6.2 shake near St Arnaud on April 24 add to the seismic unrest with potential impact on the Canterbury region
April 20
81 quakes on this map, most events under M3 in April 2015
Activity in the hills surrounding Lyttelton Harbour on April 7
April 7 M3.8 shakes the city
The last event of similar size relevant to Chch was on Dec 24 2014.
Though some scoff at planetary conditions that relate to quakes, it is noted that a total Full Moon lunar eclipse occurred less than 24hrs prior to this seismic unrest, adding to a prevailing [2012-2016] higher-than-usual terrestrial strain - on account of Uranus at 90 degrees to Pluto
January 2015 has begun with a reported M6.4 in the central South Island, plus aftershocks from early on January 6
Geonet -Revised report
Located in the sensitive seismic zone close to the Greendale Fault of 2010, this will have seismologists attention.
A M5+ aftershock is possible and with January being a hi-risk month for global seismic activity [read Uranus report] this is not a random event.
2014 proceeded with ongoing quake activity
including recurrent spikes.
Non damaging events were the norm
Quakelive graphic shows the spread from Sept 2010-Jan 2015
The energy of the M6.4 of Jan 2015 is in the same category as events of 2011
May 2014
The pattern of intermittent stronger quakes continues in a context of less activity but it is apparent for many that the extended aftermath of the quakes is far worse than their immediate effects
From cracks,collapses, liquefaction, dust and subsidence to mould, damp,disease, bitter cold, repeated flooding, post traumatic stress disorder, insurance nightmares, battles with bureaucracy, asbestos threats...and more...the reality of trying to re-establish life in a shattered city.
If you have not already viewed The Shock Doctrine on post-disaster responses [failures] by governments scroll down to the entry from a year ago May 31 2013
April 2014
April 13
Enhanced global seismicity noted in the building phase of the full moon lunar eclipse [exact on Tues 15th -and with extra complexities -Read 2014 extreme events forecast ]
Christchurch experienced a M4.2 -5kms deep at 8.36am near the Port Hills
March 20 saw a M4.04 west in the Greendale fault zone.
M4.74 is presently the pass mark to get into the top 100 for the region
April so far continues the pattern of intermittent events M4+ in a more active recent period but the month has further intense potentials.
This day also saw a major quake in the Solomons Region M7.6 and Christchurch does seem to have echo events when other distant big events occur.
March 5
The recently flooded areas of Christchurch cover an extensive area due to coastal proximity,the river network within suburbs and runoff from nearby hills. These natural factors exacerbate the altered terrain subsequent to the seismic activity since September 2010
The storm system arrived in the New Moon phase when tides came to high monthly values. From Feb 26 Lyttelton tides at 2.4m rose steadily daily, peaking from New Moon on March 1, sustained at 2.6m on March 2 & 3, with declines to 2.5 on March 4 & 5.
This lunar factor provided an extra contribution to the flooding generated by sustained rainfall.
It is unlikely any local authority could cope with the demands of such widespread water threat.
some of the most noted flooded areas included a band of suburbs from St Albans to Mairehau,Shirley & Avonside & New Brighton on the coast
Proximity to the Avon & Heathcote rivers as well as associated creeks was another risk factor due to banks being breached
Avondale, Woolston, Lytellton, Linwood, Woodham, Opawa, Governors Bay also noted.
This is not a complete list.
Flood levels were said to reach 1m in places, even waist high for a man in Mairehau, Cars floated adrift.
clearly seismic & extreme weather events combined add considerable extra threats, reaffirming the conclusion that the environment poses unbeatable challenges for many.
In 2014 so far, the seismic pattern continues to show intermittent events of late M3 & over M4 amidst ongoing events generally under M3
The energy chart from Quakelive over the past year does show somewhat of a holding pattern -in that no dramatic upsurge or decline is evident:
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| March 2013-March 2014 |
On this basis it could be expected that the region is not yet past the point of further significant seismic movement.
The severe gales and heavy rainfall hitting the region on March 4-5, when the jetstream [pink wind stream] squashed the large circular low pressure system into the coast
have led to scenes of devastation with different flavours than typical of the quake events -very significant flooding and wind damage, but the message continues to be clear:
This "basin" effect is of considerable significance in impacting the assets of those still awaiting rebuilds or even those completed in low lying areas.
This is a no-win situation.
Nature is in control of Christchurch and no amount of effort by local or national authorities will mitigate or prevent the sustained ongoing challenges the city faces.
December 2013
A flurry occurred across the region on Dec 19 in the period 12.44am-1.15 am to a maximum of M3.9 - though this was a seafloor event off Parklands & not newsworthy it seems.
This occurred in the context of a pattern over recent months involving lull periods interspersed with sudden activity around M4
December has overall so far been less active than recent months
November 2013
Unusual aspects uncovered in Canterbury quake report
An unusually thick and dense rock slab underlies Canterbury - extending in solid form to a depth of some 30kms -whereas a hot plasticity is normal for rock material at 10kms deep. The crustal layer was severely weakened from widespread cracking in the greywacke rock. This local quirk of nature enables much stronger and more widespread seismic effects.
More research will investigate how extensive this density of rock is prevalent in the lower South Island
report
Just when you think it's all over:
Over the year from Nov 2012 to mid Nov 2013
This Quakelive graphic shows an interesting new pattern as of July 29: one of greater extremes in an almost regular sequence of events between the green line M4 up to virtually M4.8 interspersing periods of little to nil recorded activity
Monday 18 Nov 11.36pm M4.6 in suburban Christchurch, 137 tonnes, being the largest event in the region since October 1st 2013 M4.7 - a seafloor event off New Brighton
October has ended with a bang after an unusual lull period lasting some 20 days
M4.2 at the eastern end zone of the Greendale Fault at 4.21 am followed by a nearby M3.3
The 4.2 is the top quake in the region over the month of October.
Then at 9.45 am a M3.8 50kms n/e of Mt Cook - in range of the Alpine Fault
This activity comes in the wake of extensive high activity on the sun during October particularly in the last week - multiple M and X level flares - high level magnetic discharges which have been shown to precede noticeable seismic responses on earth.
This is where Quakelive puts most of the October 2013 quakes
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| a scattergun spread across the region - plus a few more further out West |
After quite sustained lulls this year -e.g. March 23-June 23 2013, a pattern of higher intensity events has prevailed from late June & strengthened from October :
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| big spaces in the period late June to early October 2013 showing fewer periods with no activity |
October 2013 week 1 shows more intense seismicity in Canterbury e.g. Oct 1st M4.6 seafloor off New Brighton, and 2 shallow events at M3.3 on subsequent days one east one west.
October 1 2013
M4.6 seafloor off New Brighton
September 30 2013
GNS Science releases revised tsunami risk map for NZ coastlines, based on local or distant quake events, placing the eastern coast of Christchurch at risk of some of the highest levels of inundation facing the South Island - up to 12 metres vs the last assessment of a 10m maximum.
Across NZ, the plate boundary zones are noticeably, but not exclusively, most vulnerable.
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| NZ junction of 2 tectonic plates -faults show strong pressure zones |
September 20 2013
sustained activity in the range from M2 to under M3 is the recent norm, but today in the eastern section of the Greendale Fault zone, a M4.1 -showing that sustained potential remains in this sequence -report
September 11 2013
With strong atmospheric turbulence evident in diverse locations [Asia, Spain, US, Atlantic, South Is. New Zealand] in the first part of September, reference is made to the advisory contained in my August 2013 report:
updated advisory issued August 26August 31-September 1st there is an emphasis on extreme forces due to the opposition midpoint of Jupiter to Pluto being at right angles to the position of Uranus.
Violent, coercive, dangerous, destructive energies can manifest as aggressive, homicidal acts as well as natural elements with annihilating force.
Under this influence there is heightened likelihood of terrorist and militaristic activity as well as criminal aggression involving the misuse of power.
Natural elements are likely to reveal extreme weather events in various global locations as well as enhanced structural strain resulting in seismic events in vulnerable zones.
This analysis has had extended relevance into September well beyond the point of angular exactitude between Pluto-Jupiter-Uranus - and interestingly, for Canterbury New Zealand the forewarned environmental threat has manifested not as seismic unrest from beneath the ground, [there has been a noticeable lull] but as violent forces from above. As in September 2010 the effects have stuck 2 weeks after the Jupiter-Pluto exact angle.
September 5 2013
Over past 2 months NZ seismicity shown on Geonet maps gives a clear indication that Christchurch/Canterbury region is vulnerable to shallow versus deep-seated quakes.
The currently very active central New Zealand is subject to both deep and shallow.
August 31 2013
Right on target - Canterbury has largest quake in recent weeks as anticipated in earlier forecast made in my August 2013 report. Today's M4.3 in the Greendale fault region which started off the chain in Sept 2010
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| from Quakelive |
August 25 2013
Large quake events in New Zealand follow the bigger picture of the plate boundary zone - as revealed in the two maps at the top of this page
Geonet statistics over the past year reveal that the larger Canterbury region and the South Island in general are the most seismically active over the period, but the Wellington and Taranaki regions now have prominence in the North Island statistics.
While Christchurch itself has been seismically quieter, activity in the larger region has implications for the local region
August 16 2013
This day saw a sudden resumption of high level seismic activity centred in Marlborough, with a M6.6 shake and strong aftershocks. This activity is consistent with the August -High Risk forecast published in June - which indicates further caution is recommended in the latter period of this month. Christchurch/Canterbury may well be registering resonant effects. It is highly relevant to the region that these quakes are occurring due to the relationship to the Alpine Fault
August 12 2013
Quake energy continues on an upward trend coinciding with the seismic unrest in Cook Strait which began on July 19.
The larger region of Canterbury has been subject to ongoing quake activity of moderate strength with intermittent larger events
August 2 2013
New research suggests a large faultline east of the South Island
Stuff report
An uptick is evident in seismic energy output in the Canterbury region in the same time frame as significant quake activity is sustained in the Cook Strait region since July 19
M4.4 Swannanoa area around 4 am on this day
Last 100 quake snapshot from Quakelive shows widespread activity for events M3+ over the past 10 months
July 29 2013
A M4.8 event , 9kms deep 20kms n/w of Culverden - south of Hanmer Springs -at 4.37pm confirms a new emphasis in the west and north of Christchurch - with more connection to faults associated with the major Alpine Fault - a specialty subject of Canterbury researcher Tom Robinson -video
July 23 2013
In July the higher quakes over M3 have primarily been in the foothills and high country at the margins of the Southern Alps significantly west of Christchurch. This area of focus extends further the zone of active instability across the region.
NIWA survey ship Tangaroa has been in a section of Pegasus Basin for MBIE survey work. It has now been deployed to the Cook Strait off Marlborough to do echo soundings for undersea landslips since a previously known unstable are needs inspection - report
Though no link is likely to be made by NZ seismologists, the instability of the South Island since Canterbury events beginning September 2010 is being perpetuated by this further trio of sequences in Cook Strait.
July 22 2013
GNS confirm 3 overlapping aftershock sequences in Cook Strait -but contradict an earlier seismologist's statement by saying 'not unusual'.
Large events #1 and #2 were upward thrusts but the largest #3 was a sliding movement
Peak ground acceleration measured in respect of gravity was only 10% of the strength of shaking experienced in the Feb 22 Chch quake. [20%G vs 2G]
Quakemap has removed yesterday's recorded quakes of M4 & M5 for Canterbury but Quakemap retains the latter. These may have been seen as false readings due to the strength of the Cook Strait events.
However both sites initially gave a M4 at 2am on this day - but again no entry on Geonet. The unreliability of the data is becoming a bit too frequent.
Overnight quakes include a M5 in western Haast & several related to the ongoing Cook Strait swarm
Scientists identify 3 separate quakes in what is termed the
Seddon Sequences M5.7, M5.8 and M6.5 being involved in the Cook Strait - not a common single quake + aftershock sequence, this is effectively 3 sequences
update July 21 2013
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| Geonet
quake drum July 21 Wellington NZ records quake activity generated below
seafloor, Cook Strait with magnitudes up to M5.8 -exceeding the initial
M5.7 event of Friday 19th |
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News report on NZ quake swarm
Quakemap
Instead of reducing, the Cook Strait quakes affecting Wellington are increasing with M5.7 on July 19, M5.8 and M6.5 on July 21
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| Quakes of this magnitude vibrate through the whole of New Zealand |
Christchurch has not been unconnected to this significant seismic activity.
This snapshot of July 21 shows a M5.2 followed by a M4.3 then M3.7 - forming a triangle from Pegasus Bay to Lowry Hills Range then down to Okuku. Quakelive & Quakemap show this activity -but Geonet appears overloaded & focussing on the main show. This significant activity has arisen in the context of elevated solar-lunar gravitational forces during May-June-July peaking around dates of the Supermoons and likely accumulating with expected further activity in August - see
August report
July 19 2013
Quakes approaching M4 have been occuring in the larger Canterbury area in the past week -latest July 19 M3.94 , shallow 5kms deep inland hill country near Bealey at 12.13pm.
This follows and most likely a resonant response to the most significant recent quake in NZ earlier, same day, further north: M5.7, 16kms deep, seafloor east of Seddon at 9.06 am.
Multiple aftershocks followed in that location, the highest being M4.5, then 3 between M3.3 - M3.5
Geonet's quake drums show widespread recording of the significant quakes of this day - with vibrations being transmitted over most of the South Island and the lower half of the North Island.
Red slash to the right shows the M5.7 just emerging on the quake drums.
As noted on July 17:
July17 2013
Approaching the Supermoon of July 22 when additional strain will be applied to earth's tectonic structure. This is the 3rd Supermoon - extra close orbit of Moon to Earth in 2013.
Quake energy in the Canterbury region shows an uptick after a lull mid May-mid June
June18 2013
Significant flooding from sustained rainfall across Christchurch has added a further level of adversity on top of the enduring hardship and stress from living in compromised housing whilst struggling against obstinate bureaucratic entanglement.
Poor drainage emerges repeatedly as a stymying factor and is likely to be aggravated by liquefaction material gluing up the natural flows.
Now the city faces detrimental effects from the two aspects in combination.
Sample [Google Earth] elevations across the city & surrounds include
North New Brighton 1m above sea level
Central City, Christchurch - 4m
Woolston - 3m
Mairehau - 8m
Cashmere - 12m
Kaiapoi - 2m
Rolleston - 53m
Most of the residential land in Christchurch is well under 10m above sea level.
The elevation has dropped in many areas at least 20-30cms after seismic movement.
Places near water sources sunk up to one metre.
NIWA says this sinking equates to the effects of 50-100 years of sea level rise
The District Plan requires new buildings in the flood plain to have floor levels 3 metres above sea level but Government guidelines under the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment apparently pay little heed to the flood risk.
Occupiers & owners seem to being left at the mercy of the elements and many are at risk of losing their primary asset
Sea level rise is the third element
Inundation from seafloor or further offshore seismicity is the fourth element
Refer to: the Addendum in the August 2013 forecast related to planetary factors and possible relevance to Christchurch in August 2013
This June 16 audio from the Insight programme Radio New Zealand discusses the affordability - or not - or further major quake events in New Zealand
June 3 2013
Quakelive shows the latest 100 Canterbury quakes M4+ -the latest on June 1 in Pegasus Bay and the vast majority concentrated undersea
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| top right June 1 M4.03 at 20kms depth - via Quakelive |
May 31 2013
Current affairs programme Campbell Live in New Zealand has consistently proven to be intent on supporting those suffering in the aftermath of the main quake sequences. This Quakelive graphic shows the sustained nature of the shock environment created on a physical level, with almost a year now of similar levels of activity.
What Campbell Live focusses on now is the sustained trauma and suffering experienced by large numbers of Christchurch-Canterbury citizens who are unable to resume life in their accustomed fashion, who are in limbo, on the fringes of the lumbering machine known as EQC - self described as - A New Zealand Government agency providing natural disaster insurance to residential property owners - who are charged with sorting out the claims made subsequent to earthquake-generated damage.
EQC is only part of the full government agency response required to rebuild the city, so a complex fix is required, but from the perspective of those affected, this has been one long, glacially slow road back to any sense of sanity or normality.
Government spokesperson for the quake crisis, Gerry Brownlee has quoted ongoing quakes as the cause of delays, but Quakelive data shows:
- no 2013 quakes in the Top 100 magnitudes since Sept 2010
- M4.74 is at the 100th position
- the last significant events were around a year ago - May & July 2012 M4.88 to M5.23
- Dates keep being put way into the future -2014, 2015 for assessments, rebuilds
Land damage claim assessments only began in January 2013
Land damage assessments expected to take till the end of 2014
September 2015 is announced on May 31 2013 as the first occupancy target for 700 newly built small residences
Many will find the delays torturous and incomprehensible as well as financially ruinous -leading to the situation where the aftermath has become worse than the earthquakes themselves.
The big question is why the government and its local arm, the council would not wish to pour all possible resources into relieving the emotional pressures as speedily as possible.
An obvious conclusion that stands out is that humanitarian crises are low priority in a world controlled by an elite of extremely wealthy people. This is the rule of plutocracy over sham democracy.
In Christchurch the situation under a plutocratically-led John Key government mimics global crisis zones.
The will to spend what is required to fix Christchurch isn't there - only a pretend version.
The present governing powers are more invested in the crisis continuing - so that the massive investment demanded can be constantly delayed, more people give up and walk away.
The long-term future of the region does involve significant seismic instability either from the Alpine Fault or the eastern seafloor of Pegasus Bay, with everything in the middle under pressure and with this knowledge, investment in Chch may be viewed from many perspectives as a high risk scenario.
For those who want to understand why the agenda of the John Key government would not consider Christchurch a critical priority, an overview of American 20th century economics, spearheaded since the 1960's by figures such as Milton Friedman can be found in the deeply disturbing documentary The Shock Doctrine, based on the book of the same name by Naomi Klein.
Everyone affected by events in Christchurch since September 2010 ought to view this video in order to place their region in the context of other global crisis zones - and the aftermath that the disempowered are forced to endure. The free market, monetarist system has no true intention of helping those weakened by difficult circumstances. This may make you weep.
Excerpt:
At the most chaotic juncture in Iraq’s civil war, a new law is unveiled that would allow Shell and BP to claim the country’s vast oil reserves…. Immediately following September 11, the Bush Administration quietly out-sources the running of the “War on Terror” to Halliburton and Blackwater…. After a tsunami wipes out the coasts of Southeast Asia, the pristine beaches are auctioned off to tourist resorts.... New Orleans’s residents, scattered from Hurricane Katrina, discover that their public housing, hospitals and schools will never be reopened…. These events are examples of “the shock doctrine”: using the public’s disorientation following massive collective shocks – wars, terrorist attacks, or natural disasters -- to achieve control by imposing economic shock therapy. Sometimes, when the first two shocks don’t succeed in wiping out resistance, a third shock is employed: the electrode in the prison cell or the Taser gun on the streets.
May 2013 events
A pattern of intermittent events over M3.0 and up to M4.2 [see below] - along with sporadic lower magnitude aftershocks continues across the region.
May 2013 has seen the first Supermoon of the year, coinciding with a lunar eclipse on the 25th. This extra strain on geophysical structures has seen large quake events internationally - May 24-25 M6.3 to M8.3 so an increase in local seismicity is not surprising [ May 24-29 three events M3.3 to M3.5 in Canterbury
The next Supermoon [closest perigee or proximity to Earth in 2013] is on June 23
May 17
Today the largest jolt [M4.2 in the region highlighted in the map below - since M3.9 on Feb 22 2013 - news report
Whether coincidental or connected, take note that solar activity was significantly elevated in the period May 13-15 with an exceptional swarm of X flares from one sunspot.
Elevated proton levels are visible in the near earth satellite recordings
Quakemap shows this focal area in the first half of the month.
Orange, yellow and green dots show varying depths [5-15kms] with
magnitude up to M3.0 [north of Rolleston]
Quakelive's last 100 snapshot:
again shows a wide band, west-east and a big collection in Pegasus Bay
April 2013
Report on Alpine fault sees Canterbury facing effects equivalent to M7 event -
report
The most recent 25 events March 27-April 9 -from M1.9 to M3.0
Coloured dots show variable depths. Though intensity & frequency have declined, recent activity is diverse across the region -north-south-east-west as shown on this clickable graphic from Quakemap
March 2013
Latest aftershock map showing trend from Sept 4 2010 -via GNS Science
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| click to enlarge |
The green-red-blue-pink sequences are consecutive over time and clearly show the predominant west to east unfoldment of the process, which began in the location of the green star.
just above the extended fingers of the current [pink] sequence lies a known collection of faults in Pegasus Bay.
The 2 faultline projections above meet opposite New Brighton on the seafloor of Pegasus Bay
Reported March 22 2013: The New Zealand National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research [NIWA] has been surveying the Kaikoura canyon offshore in Pegasus Bay, to assess tsunami risk from undersea landslides.
Why?
Modelling showed that a submarine landslide at the head of the canyon would cause a significant tsunami that would arrive in South Bay with very little warning, with the crest of the wave about 13 metres above sea level
"This is the most dynamic and active submarine canyon on the New Zealand margin, coming to within 500 metres of the shoreline and dropping to 1000 metres deep within 5 kilometres of the shoreline. Kaikoura is a very active seismic region and with the potential for large earthquakes, any unstable sediment could collapse during a good shake and generate a tsunami. We need to know just what the hazard is from such events to ensure the resilience of coastal communities." says NIWA Marine Geologist Dr Joshu Mountjoy.
-NIWA report
September 21 2012
Recent event over M4 - Sept 21 M4.3
In recent months, the region had reached the longest period of inactivity/minimal seismicity since the Sept 4 2010 initial sequence. see July-August 2012 data
Seafloor events in Pegasus Bay continue to dominate.
July 2012: After July 6 there has been a tendency towards more quakes on land - versus in the previously dominant Pegasus Bay eastern seafloor locations. The current sequence remains vigorous and has become the longest so far of the four compared = 202 days - see data
July 11 2012
July has seen two large but undamaging quakes a M4.88 at Greendale fault zone on July 6 and a M4.94 on July 10 at Tai Tapu. These fall within the 6 month warning period but July remains a vulnerable period re further significant unrest
June 29 2012
It is now just more than exactly six months since the current sequence started - (Dec 23 2011) & this sequence will on July 4 2012 reach the status of the longest sustained sequence, if no further new event occurs before then. As already stated, this time frame of roughly 6 months is anticipated by geoscience forecasting as well as suggested by pattern analysis, to generate a new event
The final week of June 2012 has seen several events M3.5-M4 in the eastern seafloor
- June 23 seafloor off Parklands
- June 29 seafloor South New Brighton estuary
- June 28 seafloor off Parklands
- June 26 seafloor off North New Brighton
- This is in addition to M3.99 Darfield June 23
- In the regional Pacific quake zone continual activity over M4 is noted by USGS in the region of Tonga, Fiji & the Kermadec Trench in particular, in the time frame in the week from June 22 2012.
June 21 2012
Potentials noted on June 15 for NZ & South Pacific have not manifested, though this can indicate deep & powerful processes that are building and as yet undetected. The months ahead will have a generally heightened risk for seismic activity in vulnerable areas, globally, which could include Christchurch.
June 2012 has seen considerable quake activity over M4 globally including unexpected activity including Gippsland, Australia M5.3
June 15 2012
The second half of June 2012 is the most concerning in terms of potential global geophysical stressors.
The framework for this analysis derives from planetary groupings and alignments as well as solar activity impacting earth's geomagnetic field.
Factors currently in the mix include:
1. Increased solar activity producing earth-directed high speed wind with geostorming potentials from June 16/17 [Spaceweather sources first reported that only a weak interplanetary shock wave impacted earth at 09:00 UT on June 16 with no geostorming. A spaceweather.com update contradicted this as there was a weak impact followed by a stronger one, perturbing earth's magnetosphere with strong compression & a rise in global magnetic readings on June 17 ]
2. Moon in maximum north declination on June 18
3. New Moon on June 20 at solstice
4. the combined planetary picture at 10.30pm June 20
5. Saturn-Venus on June 21
6. Pluto-Uranus exact over many days
7. Jupiter-Neptune exact over many days
8. Sun-Moon-Pluto-Uranus on June 27
9. Pluto-Sun-Uranus on June 30
Bearing in mind this array of conditions in effect over a two week time frame, a potential hi-risk time may be theorized - this is not an outright prediction because so much complexity challenges anyone seeking to pinpoint events in advance. Rather the following information presents a highly dynamic combination of factors in effect for New Zealand & South Pacific Islands on June 20 2012.
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| Event chart: June 20, 2012 Christchurch NZ - click to enlarge |
The same time can be viewed for Auckland NZ
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| The Auckland chart shows few differences on account of NZ being a narrow country with similar longitude to Christchurch. Auckland 36.85S, 174.78E vs Chch 43.5S, 172.60E |
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Tight angles and planetary combos at this time of 10.30pm give rise to concern over a large and damaging water event with associated earth movement. Highly dynamic charts such as this, with many interacting factors, are commonly seen in large scale significant events.
What makes a difference in terms of where energies manifest is the local resonance pattern - which is a complex matter to research & considering that we may be in unknown territory in terms of probabilities. All that can be said is that Christchurch has significantly more recent earth disturbances than Auckland - though an out of the blue off-shore event from the east, of large enough capacity, would be of concern to all of the eastern seaboard of New Zealand.
update June 16 The same pattern is evident in equivalent longitude Pacific Islands -Fiji, Tonga, W. Samoa - suggesting potential for a Pacific quake-tsunami - or at the very least, significant flooding [updates: June 18 - USGS note several quakes on June 17 in the Fiji-Tonga seabed plus June 18 M6.4 off Japan -which also has another destructive pattern on June 20 2012;
update June 19 2am Kermadec Trench M4.8 quake]
update June 19 - unusual M5.3 quake s/e of Melbourne plus Fiji, Tonga & Vanuatu all have seafloor quakes over M4 -
USGS data
As a comparison, view the equivalent time charts for Sydney & London, compared to pattern in NZ at that time
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| The London pattern is flipped, being in the opposite hemisphere, but it is essentially very similar to Sydney's at the equivalent time & both differ from the 2 NZ charts - click to enlarge all graphics |
June 13 2012
Today is the one year anniversary of sequence 3, but it is the fourth sequence, since Dec 23 2011 which remains vigorous - see energy map
Recent days have seen two land based quakes over M3.5
June 2 2012
M4.3, 9kms deep this morning, seafloor off Sumner, adding to recent M4+ activity in Pegasus Bay
An anonymous comment on the Press Quake Science page says he requested a faults map off GNS science under the Official Information Act. He was supplied a photo & says there is a CBD fault that is yet to rupture
"... a fault starting about Clarence St near the railway line running NE across Hagley Park, crossing St Asaph, Tuam, Litchfield and Cashels Streets, crossing Fitzgerald at about Hereford St continuing NE out to sea for a while, parallel to but slightly north of Pages Rd, all but the last fault right through the CBD have ruptured."
May 31 2012
In an unexpected location compared to recent trends, a strong M4.5 today west of Ashburton, at Mayfield. View location map of the latest 100 [ pattern will alter continually] Canterbury quakes
The Geonet shake reports were widespread. Star = epicentre; Green dot = strongest
May 27 2012
During the final week of May 2012, the quake pattern has resumed a 'left,right & centre" spread, with shakes recorded in the eastern seafloor, central Christchurch region and the western areas around the Greendale fault. see Quakelive data from May 23.
On May 25 a one kilotonne quake at M5.2 in Pegasus Bay, 11kms offshore, 12.5kms deep is sustaining the vigor of this sequence. Quake scientists gave a 76% chance of a M5+ in the year to March 13 2013. This event fell just 2 months into that time frame. This event is 30th in the top 100 and it is very similar in size & location to a shake of this intensity on Jan 7 2012. The Top 5 quakes continue to be:
M7.1, M6.41, M6.34, M6.0, M5.91
Of these, the Dec 23 2011, M6 at South New Brighton is the closest to the sustained activity in Pegasus Bay and serves as the initiator of the current sequence.
The most destructive and fatal is the Feb 22 2011 event in position 3.
In the Top 5 the Feb quake was also the shallowest (5.95kms)
May 20 2012
6.25pm update:
M4.8 seafloor quake, 5.06pm, seafloor off Sumner, 8kms deep. No damage or outages reported.
This represents a vigorous and unusual sequence when compared to the prior the 3 in Christchurch region since Sept 2010, since that first event started with a M7.1 & the current sequence began with M6.0
click to enlarge source ChchQuakeMap
Earlier report:
The seismicly sensitive Rolleston tip of the Greendale fault has been active this morning, producing a M4.1 quake, 10 kms deep at 9.35 am. The Rolleston area features significantly in the top 100 quakes of Canterbury since Sept 4 2010. The current Top 100 ranges from the initial M7.1 down to M4.63.
Update & correction: The M4.8 has now entered the Top 100 at spot 71.
Top 100 positions 13, 26, 40, 44, 53, 69, 76, 91, 93 (9 events) all occurred in January 2012, so today's quake means 10% of the Top 100 have occurred within the first 6 months of 2012 - data
Noting that this coincides within the effective period of an annular solar eclipse [exact on May 21 NZ time]. This eclipse is heightened in terms of quake risks due to the lunar declination - position relative to earth coming to maximum north position [21 degrees 42 N] on May 22 2012 - see Richard Nolle's Astropro table of declinations for the moon . This maximum position is one of 4 high risk periods for the effects of lunar pull to be heightened ( the others are max south, over equator heading north, and over equator, heading south. Nolle is one of many who consider such factors as eclipses, declinations & various other planetary factors can pose greater stresses on the earth's structure. Astropro forecasts
May 15 2012
Less than a week after this area was highlighted -see May 9 entry - Pegasus Bay has produced a M4.5 10kms deep and 6.6 kms off New Brighton. This is the largest quake since the January events noted in this post.
May 9 2012
Though a noticeably quiet period in recent weeks, the details of the last 100 Canterbury quakes are of interest, currently focussed in this sector:
image source Canterbury QuakeLive
Does our government seriously plan to allow housing along this coastline?
April 12 2012
12 noon very close after a M7 in Mexico and within 24hrs of a major sequence in the waters off western Indonesia, Pegasus Bay registers a M4.6, the biggest quake since January 2012
March 26 2012
Tsunami risks in the Kaikoura canyon may have implications for coastal Cantabrians. Environment Canterbury has a copy of the report by Canterbury University researcher Jen DuBois. Scientists are considering further exploration of the canyon. 16 prior local tsunamis with impact effects have been noted since European occupation. Southshore residents would be at risk. Depending on tidal factors wave metres would vary in different locations along the extended coastline from Kaikoura to Christchurch - estimates ranging from 2-10metres. The standard view is that a minimum magnitude 7 quake offshore would be required to generate a damaging tsunami and the probability of that occurring in the next year is put at under 1%. Again this is a situation of being informed and then acting on your own conclusions. -
read news report
March 18 2012
Definitely an uptick including 2 quakes over M4 - both on/near Banks Peninsula around 1am this morning.
Geonet continues to disappoint despite it's suposed rapid response system. More detail can be found at Quakelive including this interesting map of 24hr swarms after the main events
March 17 2012
The past week has been notable for an "all over the place" pattern - moderate events individually, with nothing over M4, but collectively indicative of ongoing widespread movement.
- DATA
March 6 2012
A Pegasus Town development is in the news due to issues over geotech reports. As visible from the Google Map above, this new town is at the mercy of any significant seismic activity generated in the bay. Developers feel they have done adequate land strengthening. That assertion is yet to be significantly tested.
PRESS REPORT
One year on since this post was first published, primary activity is centred in Pegasus Bay now, along with ongoing lesser magnitude events in the western Greendale zone. The Canterbury QuakeLive site energy graph shows the vigorous persistence of the sequence since December 23, (M4.57, 10kms deep in Pegasus Bay) though a declining phase is now evident in terms of frequency, the larger quakes are in the bay .
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| QuakLive graph -click to enlarge |
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The Top 100 listed by QuakeLive is also visually revealing
February 22 2012
Counsellors in Christchurch note the big surge in demand re stress conditions. The tipping point is said to be quakes over M4.0 - report
February 9 2012
This updated summary shows how extremely unpredictable the seismic activity is in terms of WHERE. The official geoscience view is a tidy progression eastwards, offshore and out of harm's way. That expectation looks good on paper and in powerpoint presentations, but neat and tidy is not nature's way. The reliance on computer modelling is the achilles heel of the "experts" in this extended readjustment of ancient earth.
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| click any graphic to enlarge |
February 8 2012
Diverse seimic activity continues. Since January 23 2012 the five bigger quakes (over M4.0) have occurred in 3 different zones
Jan 23 M4.5 Pegasus Bay
Jan 27 M4.6 Rolleston
Jan 28 M4.2 Pegasus Bay
Feb 8 M4.2 Banks Peninsula
Feb 8 M4.3 Banks Peninsula
January 27 2012
Public were not warned even though the information was available before Feb 22 quake -
Press report
Renewed recent activity at the Greendale fault zone confirms there is more stress to be released here. Vigorous seismic activity in the period Dec 23-Jan 27 is evident on the energy graph at quakelive
Government departments (IRD, WINZ) are known to have signed 9 year leases to operate from the western fringes of Christchurch city and today the rebuild of Christchurch is said to be delayed further on account of reinsurer concern over seismic instability since the Dec 23 2011 sequence unfolded in Pegasus Bay. REPORT
January 18 2012
Across the globe, governments are complicit in allowing people to reside in hazardous zones. The NZ government is no different. Read this recent report from
The Economist
January 17 2012
A 2007 paper on the Great alpine Fault down the spine of the South Island. Read this if you want a scientific appraisal related to the seismic outlook for the South Island.
Plus what geoscientists said about the alpine fault on Sept 7 2010 after the Darfield quake
Pegasus the Winged Horse - image via ThinkQuest
January 13 2012
The focus on Pegasus Bay continues in terms of significant seismic activity, though Jan 12 was notable for diverse small quakes on the mainland from east to west of Canterbury -
data
The major quake sequence in Pegusus Bay continues to pump out kilotonnes of energy.
