As for Brash - big boost

With only a birth date - 24 September 1940 and no birth time one big factor stand out for Don Brash in his aspirations to return to politics in 2011:

Uranus now moving in the range from 0-4 degrees of Aries will retrograde back to 0 degrees Nov-Dec 2011.
0-1 degrees is important for Brash
He would have gottten the urge in March, that is expressing now
He has three aspects being activated
Sun position 1 degree,  Jupiter & Saturn combining at 0 degrees ( by semisquare)
This triple activation of executive ambition is likely to pay off

Update:
Thurs 28 April NZ time 12 noon. Don Brash  announced as new leader of ACT Party, on defeat of Rodney Hide by caucus vote.

Rodney Hide - he's restless

Without a birth-time it's impossible to see everything that's going on for Rodney Hide ( NZ MP for the ACT Party) but going on a birth date of December 16 1956:

Hide is under a lot of internal pressure to break free. This process would be happening whether he was in a political stand off or doing something quite different.

Hide is a Sagittarian ( position is 24 degrees) His biography shows a lot of Sagittarian activity: tertiary study, teaching, a lot of overseas experience; married a foreigner. His connection to economics comes through the sign of the balance/scales: Libra. He entered politics in 1996.

Right now the north node is right on 24 SAG

Plus the next lunar eclipse ( June 15 2011) is spot on at 24 SAG

What else?
Uranus passing from 0 Aries up to 4 Aries then back to 0 early January 2012, is swinging opposite Hide's Jupiter at 0 Libra.

Two signatures of restlessness, big-time because when the contact points are spot on exact, you can be sure there's a shift in process

Hang on. He just got married in December 2010 and being a Sag. with Jupiter in Libra travelling with his partner/wife is the perfect lifestyle. So what's Hide doing being a politician? Sag's are connected to things legal as well so this aspect could appeal. Plus he's at the Leo end of Sag - making the limelight and being Boss quite appealing ( Key is a Leo, Brash ( Libra) has a tinge of Leo too) The Libra connection to finance/economics is part of the picture as well

So the two factors activating his Sag energy mean he is very likely to be heading offshore within months.
"don't fence me in" is the Sagittarian theme, always looking for greener pastures. But Hide does have one spanner in the works of his personality - a conflicting drive that holds him back, restrains his excesses, disciplines him. He's no loose cannon, more a swinging pendulum.
The Uranus activation stirs things up even more -sudden change in relationship situation - not necessarily a maritial split but perhaps his political alliances ending is indicated by this. Does Hide find the Aries (self) energy is impatient to over-rule his partnership/party needs? Some sort of change, upheaval spurred by his need to do something on his own, for himself.

Looking at his energy lineup, he has a natural capacity for sudden, unexpected action, doing something different ( the dancing) and his capacity for reinvention is evident ( the weight loss and image makeover)
In fact there is only minor evidence, using a basic analysis, of why he's a politician at all. ( His full analysis enabled by the birth time factor is likely to answer that query though).
The urges he is dealing with now will only grow as time approaches the June eclipse.

Does it look, at first glance, like Rodney Hide will shoot through? The energy is definitely there in a big dose for Hide to do his own thing in a very Sagittarian kind of way. He's probably booking tickets this week.

addendum:
of course if Rodney is really set for another makeover, his Sagittarian impulses could send him off on a spiritual search. He already has the shaved head, so robes would not look out of place. After all, a deep philosophy of life is the end goal for Sagittarians.

Update:
Thurs April 28 12 noon NZ time, Rodney Hide announced his resignation as Party Leader of ACT


Update May 17
Hide made a play to save face over his dumping, as one does with a decent sized ego, but the situation remains one of change for him. An overseas position, a spiritual search remain options along with that other Sagittarian favourite, the halls of learning. He could end up back at Uni, teaching or in further study. In recent years he used his Sagittarian drive in his physical makeover -sport and exercise being the typical pastimes of the typical Sag -Rodney just left it till later.

                                                                   In Action 2008 Tango

The Eclipse Factor with global events timing

This post will update as and when relevant on this topic as it is a study in progress.

1. the Japan Quake occurred NOT on a full moon, NOT on a New Moon, but midway between, on March 11 2011 at a time when several factors linked to the prior total lunar eclipse (Dec 21, 2010, 29Gemini21)
 - namely Uranus 29Pisces59, Nodes 28Sag-Gemini39, the ASC-MC midpoint 27Gemini22.

There are also links to the January 2011 partial solar eclipse 13Capricorn39.
On March 11 Mars was sextile at 12Pisces47 and the eclipse semiquare degree of 28Aquarius39 was activated by Neptune 29Aquarius12 -this position also in very close trine to the Dec eclipse.
The mathematics are evident.

So this line of reasoning, extended, invites a look at the next phase, the interesting mid-year trio of eclipses
June 1st   11Gemini02
June 15    24Sagittarius23
July 1      9Cancer12

The one which stands out first is 24SAG23, because this degree is activated by the moon's nodes in the last weeks of April 2011. The past days 16-18 April have seen an uptick in quake activity, plus wild storms in the US, China, strong winds NZ and likely dozens of other signs globally of activated turbulent energies ( the full moon, perigee, high tidal force % all prominent too in this time frame)
So the period mid April till early May 201l will be of interest.
The other activating degree is the semisquare of 24SAG23 = 9Aquarius23 plus any other fixed signs at that degree. The occurence of the Sun at 9Taurus23 on April 30 will bolster the nodes in activating power.

More later....



Reference:
Lunar eclipse tables  and Solar Eclipse tables show the variable patterns.
All the solar eclipses in 2011 are partial, last seen in 2000. We will not see 4 partial solar eclipses again till 2029. This pattern has a sequence of 18,18,11,18,18,11 year intervals
As for Total Lunar eclipses, having 2 in a year,  as found in 2011, relatively common
The particular total solar-lunar sequence in 2011 regarding eclipses is regarded as rare.

The Latitude Factor in Quakes

It's the obsession of many to try to work out the why where and how of stuff. Without this human drive, researchers would never have contributed to the progression of technologies into the 21st century. But the workings of our planet are perhaps the most critical area of endeavour: quakes and natural disasters rank highly in terms of study because of the potential for catastrophic impact on people. 


This Latitude analysis offers a possible factor in targeting vulnerable areas, since it is known though data that the earth is not equally susceptible in all zones.


Japan at latitude 36N
ten percent of the world's active volcanoes are found in Japan, which lies in a zone of extreme crustal instability  -Geography of Japan

NZ is at latitude 41S
New Zealand straddles the boundary between two tectonic plates. The subduction of the Pacific plate under the Indo-Australian Plate results in volcanism, especially in the North Island's Taupo Volcanic Zone.
The collision between the two plates causes regular earthquakes, though severe ones are infrequent. These have uplifted the Southern Alps along the Alpine Fault... New Zealand experiences around 14,000 earthquakes a year,[4] some in excess of magnitude 7. Geography of New Zealand

Crustal plates and volcanism tend to go hand in hand, though "hot spots" occur away from boundaries -such as in Hawaii

crustal plates - enlarged source: Wikimedia commons

Huge plates dominate the planet in the extreme northern and southern latitudes and the most seismically active zone surrounds and falls within the Pacific Ocean, where huge populations live on the continental fringes of North and South America as well as the islands of Japan, Indonesia, Micronesia, Polynesia, down to the southermost nation of New Zealand, two large islands sitting astride the crustal boundary.

In fact, NewZealand, Chile, California and Japan, broadly speaking comprise the core co-ordinates of the zone - the central zones of these all falling within the latitude range 35-41 north/south of the equator.

So if this zone is significant, the question why may relate to the pull of the moon, which only travels to a maximum of  28.5 degrees north or south, crossing the equator every 2 weeks. The moon passing over the equator is significant because earth's curvature means the equator provides the closest proximity between moon and earth.  This proximity is increased further when the perigee portion of the monthly moon cycle coincides with an equatorial passage. 2011 perigee tables  show March and October 2011 to be closest passage. A globally significant event occurred in March ( Japan) when the moon was close to max north declination, but not close to perigee. Other factors were obviously in the mix). What is interesting to ask here is whether the pull of the moon, as it headed towards the latitude of Japan, was able to precipitate undersea seismic activity.  Nothing of that impact appears evident in October 2011. Lets get through May and June first.

Update July 8, 2011

Refer to recent post on the solar minimum -and how the sun has a preferred latitude band for its sunspot activity.

Recent Quake Data -Christchurch NZ

Latest

May 2012

This post is no longer updated due to other updated information located on this site

Please refer to:

Christchurch Shakes - for a running summary of seismic developments 

Christchurch -why warnings have been given - for commentary on the long term viability of Canterbury-Christchurch regarding potential future seismic hazards

Original post begins

Data sourced from the University of Canterbury's online quakemap  covering the time frame March 14-April 11 2011

The red box shows the highest mag aftershock for the day in the source area.
NOTES:
- this data may include events in the South Island beyond Christchurch & Canterbury, but significant ones are noted -eg March 23 the 3.9 event marked A occurred at the Alpine fault, west of the Canterbury region
- the highest magnitude event in Christchurch occurred on March 20 ( the dreaded Supermoon day)
- on April 11, a M5.1 occurred in the sea, east off the  lower North Island. This is the highest mag seismic event since March 20
- from March 16 the daily totals of events are given along the bottom border
- a general downward trend is expected by seismologists, in frequency and magnitude: though Geonet acknowledges
                    this has been a particularly rich sequence compared with the forecasts

As a matter of interest, considering there are so many very bright minds trying to unpick the mystery of where and when quakes occur, some options you can observe:

1. The moon's maximum north (N) or maximum south (S) declination is regarded as influential on seismic activity. A few dates coming up are:

April 8 (N), April 21 (S); May 6 (N), May 18 (S); June 2 (N), June 15 (S), June 29 (N); July 12 (S), July 27 (N)

The window of influence according to Richard Nolle is 30hrs either side of the target date 

2. A formula called tidal force - which combines a range of lunar factors, all of which are cyclic and therefore can merge in influence by several factors occurring within a reduced time-frame: a synergistic sun-moon effect is produced affecting the water and the crustal surface of the earth

source Michael Erlewine Dharma Practice Calendar

For April the dates (column 4) from 13th to 21st are when the sun and moon together are said to exert their strongest combined force as shown by % in far right column.

This is not just a standard calculation related to New and Full Moons which are generally believed to be the strongest times of influence. In April, New Moon is 4th and Full Moon 18th

In April 2011 the full moon on the 18th coincides with a 94% tidal force, but the moon's position in latitude/declination is only a few degrees south of the equator (max south 21st) but it will be closest proximity to earth (perigee) 17th-18th.  I'd expect some increase in extreme weather/seismicity affecting areas that are usually active, but not a mega-event. May and June look more powerful.

Both theories have success as quake predictors  but both are imperfect in failing to get consistent results;

the Moon was near max North on March 11 - exact on March 12 -re the Japan quake

the Moon was 3 days off max South ( Feb 22 Christchurch quake vs  Feb 25 max)

the Boxing Day tsunami 2004 was Moon at max North and Full Moon -but Moon was at far apogee -so the tidal % was only 11. Clearly max. declination with full moon alignment were determining factors.

the Chile quake of Feb 27 2010 had the moon being beyond max north date (23rd) but it was right on lunar perigee and 1 day before full moon. The tidal percentage was 95. So here the tidal sun-moon effect seems to have ruled.

And more could be said concerning eclipses...next time.

Update April 15

NASA Science News site item suggests 2011 is seeing more solar activity directed towards earth - the solar wind comprising electrically charged plasma interacts with the magnetic field that surrounds earth ( essentially we live on a magnet!) The interesting point here is that on March 7 the sun send a big force towards earth, taking a few days to arrive here. It's arrival on March 10 was identified by the auroral lights and their spread - down to latitude 45N in some American states. 

And what happened on March 11 2011 in Japan? Some researchers are convinced that space-weather like this plays a significant role in earthquake activity.

Update April 16 a.m.

Noting an uptick in quake activity (21) events in the South Island on Friday 15th after a lull period as well as other activity in the North Island. Seeing as there are ebbs and flows in the nature of tidal behaviour the temptation is definitely there to find a link between quake activity and lunar/solar-lunar/other planetary cycles.

On Friday 15 the tidal force % was 97% -highest for the month, also 2 days before exact perigee and 3 days before full moon, then moon will be maximum south on 21st. A turbulent period would be expected in this time frame April 14-22.

What's happening globally? The M5+ records show more diverse action has been building, compared to Japan's recent near total domination of the stats. Note Tonga is quite active = closer to home. Nevada at latitude 38N, since April 10, has repeated small events like currently seen in Christchurch.

Globally the latitude bands 30-40 degrees north or south of the equator appear to be dominant as detected in a prior analysis posted by Waiheke News on worst earthquake zones

p.m. The largest aftershock since Feb 22 occurred in Christchurch at 5.49 pm, in the seafloor, Diamond Harbour, M5.3 ( prior highest was March 20) 

Currently 2 days from Full Moon; tidal force is very high 96%; one day before the moon's perigee position and the moon is on the other sensitive latitude/declination in space = on the equator.

P.S. you won't hear Ken Ring go to the media this time but he did warn of this period: will post if the link can be located. Found it - a global chart indicating M5+ activity today around the world - here

Update Monday April 18

"We are locating events under Darfield, under Lyttelton, and all the way out to the coast. It is still a very active area."

The shocks are gradually becoming smaller and further apart, but would not stop completely until around February 2013.

...the probability of an earthquake of magnitude 6 or greater within the next year was roughly 6 per cent     NZ Herald report April 18

Please read prior and upcoming posts on this topic to ensure you are factoring in the reality of the situation in Christchurch. 

Update April 24

A M4.3 in Lincoln, Chch at 8.51pm

Update May 10

If the highest quake of the day occurred outside of Canterbury, it is indicated as Seafloor, Alpine or Marlborough. On April 30 it is shown that a 3.9 occurred in Chch, but a 5.2 occurred in the Alpine region.

This data shows the trend, with number of quakes per day along the bottom border, showing a lowering of totals and a bunching of smaller mag quakes, down to a max of M3 on May 3.

An uptick may be observed from May 5, when the energy built. The next event, which occurs the day after the 9th, ie May 10th a M5.3 in Rolleston, shows a sudden surge of energy, but this location, Rolleston saw the M4 max on May 9. So whilst the general trend is down, the recurrence of shallow events over M5 must be of concern to residents. (GNS forecast data)

Mouse-over this quake data graph as well for more info.

Update May 16

Today's events included an unusual sequence of  3 events M4.0-4.6, 2 in the seafloor, 1 south of Springston 

Dec 16 2011: 

The downtrend evident in the Quakelive graph  [-just prior to a fourth sequence occurred]

Quakelive data  - click to enlarge

 

 On Dec 23 2011 a fourth quake sequence began, due to a M5.8  in Pegasus Bay. Details and ongoing commentary re this location are found in this specific post

Extreme Weather & Events - What to Believe

Both sides of the equation predict more extreme weather in our future. Extremes in temperature, flooding, sea level rise, bigger storms, more seismic and volcanic activity are the key indicators noted, though there is never total agreement between the opposing sides as to what causes which.
The main divide is between those who see global warming, caused by humans as the primary driver and those who say the cycle is returning instead to cooling, nothing to do with CO2 emissions.

Then there's the added factoring that comes via prominent spokesperson Piers Corbyn, who is a traditionally trained astro-physicist from the UK. His weather, and now, quake prediction service is gaining ground in challenging the UK MetService. Corbyn takes his vision off-planet to place the activity of the sun, primarily electro-magnetic emissions which interact with earth, as a timing indicator for extreme weather/quakes/. He claims a high success rate.

Because people's lives, lifestyles and sense of security are increasingly impacted, many efforts are being made to inform and advise the public around the world, by people generally outside of the established institutions. Why is this so? Because the governments of the world are typically unwilling to provide information which may destabilise order. They do not want to see people operating outside of the system because this is challenging on many levels. Accordingly any public information received is watered down, indirect and generally delivered too late.

Though citizens are generally supported by the caretaker governments in a democratic nation, this era appears to be changing, so that people are being increasingly required to be self reliant, self sufficient, with less viable government support. This situation means that self directed research and enquiry are required in order to anticipate future scenarios.
In other words we all have to become prepared to be our own support and rescue services if the situation demands it. The people of Christchurch, Japan, Haiti, New Orleans are all recent examples of how the system breaks down and can only tend to the few in large scale events. This situation is not heading towards improvement any time soon.

Several videos of Piers Corbyn are available here
On the astrology side Richard Nolle in his April 11 update restates his contention that it is the position of the moon, namely the maximum highest north position ( peak declination north) that has a big influence on timing of extreme events - article here 

It's All About Cycles: the planet, politics, economics...

It's only arrogance that convinces humans to persevere with their endeavours, assuming linear, controllable factors, leading to perpetual prosperity, endless growth and enduring uninterrupted happiness. It's arrogance because it is a position removed from nature and the essence of nature, which is cycles of change.

Everything that exists is subject to cycles and the brevity of our personal lifespan means we witness only some smaller cycles, whilst learning through history of others, but even then there are cycles that exist way beyond human historical records.

Astrology is able to track a big range of these - Astrodienst provides an online ephemeris back to the year 1400, but our knowledge is always lacking in awareness of lessons from the past. Perhaps that is why humans learn so slowly.

Since 2008 we have seen Pluto, Uranus and now Neptune shift signs and their slow moving influences mean a changing era in humanity's collective experience. Typically things go down before they come up in that context: change involving disruption and despair, restructuring, revisioning and rebuilding are painful, stressful and threatening to most of us, but the promise of new, better, circumstances is our guiding intention, in a world where we know millions suffer injustice, inequality and impoverished conditions.
In 2011 with Uranus and Neptune both moving into new areas of influence, it is starting to become very apparent, even to those who don't have a template for cycle-watching, that a shift is upon us.

Astrology writer Adrian Ross Duncan posted a very useful analysis in September 2010 and some selected quotes first, sum up the territory ahead:

and the social unrest is as a result of..

the meltdown of capitalism - perfectly expressed, even before Japan in March 2011 faces the financial fallout from tsunami damaged nuclear facilities

and here Adrian references the humanitarian emphasis that will continue to demand attention, globally

Neptune entered Pisces in 1847 (coinciding with the release of the Communist Manifesto urging Workers of the World Unite!) and Neptune has just returned to Pisces on April 4 2011. In NZ we see the Maritime Union concerned about the state of foreign vessels and their worker conditions;

 in Christchurch, post-quake, worker rights, conditions and rescue packages are very much on the agenda of the Combined Trade Unions. Read Adrian's full article

London has just seen major rioting against government cuts and of course the pro-democracy movement is raging across the Middle East.  And these are just the social impacts of the era of change we are undergoing. Planetary upheaval, added into this mix is already responsible for humanitarian crises in ravaged Japan and completely unprepared Christchurch. 

We are witnessing cycles in action, in our lifetime

More Quake-Tsunami Research 1946 and 2011

In a recent post I proposed the notion that the surprising timing of the Japan  tsunami (March 11, 2011) could have been related to the surrounding eclipse cycle.

I've just found another fascinating example: the 1946 quake event that spread a massive tsunami across the Pacific after a generative event off Alaska at latitude 52.8N: a shallow quake now rectified to M8.6. This occurred on April 1 1946. Hawaii, sitting at latitude 19.30N, bore the brunt severely - as revealed in the video above.

It's interesting that 2011 repeats the eclipse pattern of 1946, starting in both cases with the prior December eclipse (Total Lunar in late Gemini in both cases) The next eclipse is 12 Capricorn 1946,  (13 CAP in 2011) , followed by the midyear  9 Gemini (11),  23 Sagittarius (24) and 7 Cancer (9). So a one-two degree position difference but it is the repeated signs and the fact of having 3 midyear eclipses as well, instead of the usual 2.

It will be interesting too to watch what sort of events repeat under these conditions, bearing in mind that several other factors are not repeating ( the positions of the far outer planets are way different)

Jupiter and Saturn  are in the same Cardinal sign groupings and this could be very important.
eg. April 1946 Jupiter in Libra vs April 2011 Jupiter in exact opposition - in Aries.
     April 1946 Saturn  in Cancer vs April 2011 Saturn in Libra - these signs are 90 degrees apart

The nodes of the Moon are also in very similar territory March-April : late Gemini in 1946 and the opposite position late Sagittarius in 2011


Now looking at these signs and possible connections to quake- tsunami events, the following happened in 1946: the quake at 12.29pm GMT  occured with the Moon in late Pisces (water) joined by the north node at 23Gemini46. This event fell within of the 2 lunar eclipses Dec (Gemini)-June(Sagittarius) and exactly on the day when the Moon and Node equalled the degree of the coming eclipse: 23 SAG.
This represents another example of the involvement of eclipses and the role of triggering factors in timing.

Read my recent post on March 2011 to see the strong similarities operating in respect of eclipses, triggers, timing as played out with the Japan tsunami of 2011.

This chart for the exact Moon-Node connection (square) is probably significant. Here's the same chart reduced in size for quick reference: Note that at 12 noon the day before the quake, namely March 31, 1946 events began shown by the Moon, Node & Jupiter so tightly linked. There's probably a lot more to say about this "precursor" chart but for now  this is a starting point.

Precursor events probably occurred on or around this sequence on March 31 1946