The premise being explored is whether significantly geo-effective solar activity has an impact on the world's trading markets due to the density of highly charged particles causing disturbances in brain activity and more propensity towards panic on the level of the group mind
Further reading on this site:
[ for LATEST: All 2014 updates now at end of post]
These factors underlie the premise of this post.
Fascinating to see the (depending on your viewpoint) coincidental or connected events unfolding in early August 2011 as the recently very quiet sun has commenced a highly active phase, with the strongest sunspot array since Cycle 24 began January 2008
- Sunspot 1261 is currently at HIGH output level with 4 M-class and 15 C-class flares in the past two days - the largest almost reaching X-class level. Current predictions regard the possibility of an X-class event at 3% -refer solarmonitor
The GOES solar flare graphs are explained here in terms of X-ray output levels.
So what has been the most significant mirror event on earth in the past week?
The debt crisis.
August 4 in the US (coinciding with Obama's 50th birthday)
"Thursday has been described as a bloodbath as the Dow Jones plummeted 512.61 points, or 4.3 percent, to close at 11,383.83". source CP
Due to time zone differences, Australian and NZ markets are the first to open: Here's a summary from Australia and another analysing the Dow impact.
Australian investors facing losing tens of billions of dollars today as financial markets across the world slide on fears the globe is headed into another recession. West Australian
London Evening Standard Stocks dive amid world economy fear
This may have much more to unfold if the events are in tandem with the powerful geomagnetic storm expected to impact earth.
The term "turbulent" is being used in reference to the stockmarket at the same time that turbulence is being generated in space & approaching earth.
AFTERSHOCK ( a book about future economic freefall) authors Wiedemer & Spitzer have made available a free chapter from their 2nd edition on the likely fallout of US fiscal problems, detailing the likely future consequences of the economic situation
Moving at an estimated speed of 1950 km/s, this CME is expected to sweep up two earlier CMEs already en route.
Analysts at the GSFC Space Weather Lab say the combined cloud should reach Earth on August 5th at 13:55 UTplus or minus 7 hours: "The impact on Earth is likely to be major. The estimated maximum geomagnetic activity index level Kp is 7 (Kp ranges from 0 - 9). - source SpaceWeather.com
Usually I focus on natural events associated with solar, lunar and other planetary activity and it is clear that the potential is high for significant seismic/volcanic events in the window related to the current solar output of flares and a CME(Coronal Mass Ejection). Hawaii & other Significant volcanoes and the Pacific Ring of Fire seismic zone have been rumbling away particularly in the past week.
Usually I focus on natural events associated with solar, lunar and other planetary activity and it is clear that the potential is high for significant seismic/volcanic events in the window related to the current solar output of flares and a CME(Coronal Mass Ejection). Hawaii & other Significant volcanoes and the Pacific Ring of Fire seismic zone have been rumbling away particularly in the past week.
We are approaching midway from New to Full Moon and the Moon is coming to maximum South on the 8th of August, plus a major planetary pattern on the 10th, so anything building now may see much more evidence closer to August 10 2011.
Space weather astrophysicist Piers Corbyn sums up here and the NOAA space weather agency has posted this video:
GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A geomagnetic storm is in progress. It began on August 5th around 1800 UT when a CME struck Earth's magnetic field. At its peak during the hours just after impact, the storm registered 8 on the 0 to 9 "K-index" scale of geomagnetic disturbances, making it one of the strongest magnetic storms in years. The subsiding storm will likely take many more hours to peter out, so high-latitude sky watchers should remain alert for auroras.Solar wind has reached a high 604.3 km/sec, the geomagnetic KP index is at 6 and rising, meaning a lot of extra magnetic activity in earth's field ( impacts people, animals, electronics)
Earth may now exhibit consequences of the first storm in terms of earth weather storms, seismic/volcanic activations and humans exhibiting extreme behaviour.
Earlier at midday, the market had fallen 100 points to its lowest level in nearly a year, with $1.4 billion wiped off its value. At 12.20pm, it was down 97 points, or 3%, at 3180 on turnover of $73 million according to Radio NZ & in this later update after 4pm today
Space weather news: sunspot 1263 almost doubled in size over the weekened Aug 6-7
Summary re 1263--X ray flare probabilities: X(13%) M(41%) C(54%)
Link to prior post on the next financial meltdown
Global markets keep diving
Riots spread like wildfire across London & copycats in outer cities. see interactive map
March 31 2013
Space weather astrophysicist Piers Corbyn sums up here and the NOAA space weather agency has posted this video:
Aug 6 2011
Update from Space Weather.Com:GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A geomagnetic storm is in progress. It began on August 5th around 1800 UT when a CME struck Earth's magnetic field. At its peak during the hours just after impact, the storm registered 8 on the 0 to 9 "K-index" scale of geomagnetic disturbances, making it one of the strongest magnetic storms in years. The subsiding storm will likely take many more hours to peter out, so high-latitude sky watchers should remain alert for auroras.Solar wind has reached a high 604.3 km/sec, the geomagnetic KP index is at 6 and rising, meaning a lot of extra magnetic activity in earth's field ( impacts people, animals, electronics)
August 7
Sunspot 1261 has subsided somewhat, with 1267 active and 1263 capable of ramping up the flare intensity. Earth may now exhibit consequences of the first storm in terms of earth weather storms, seismic/volcanic activations and humans exhibiting extreme behaviour.
August 8
NZ Sharemarket news Earlier at midday, the market had fallen 100 points to its lowest level in nearly a year, with $1.4 billion wiped off its value. At 12.20pm, it was down 97 points, or 3%, at 3180 on turnover of $73 million according to Radio NZ & in this later update after 4pm today
Space weather news: sunspot 1263 almost doubled in size over the weekened Aug 6-7
Summary re 1263--X ray flare probabilities: X(13%) M(41%) C(54%)
Link to prior post on the next financial meltdown
August 9
Sunspot 1263 produced an impulsive M3-class solar flare on August 8th at 1810 UT. Global markets keep diving
Riots spread like wildfire across London & copycats in outer cities. see interactive map
An X-class 7.0 flare on the sun( from sunspot 1263) at around 08.00 UT is likely to add to present turbulence on earth. (though the blast was not angled in the direction of earth, the effects have been less evident)
August 10
Solar activity remains high , with sunspot 1263 being the source of X, M & C class flares
According to spaceweather.com
X-flares of Solar Cycle 24: Feb. 15, 2011 (X2), March 9, 2011 (X1), Aug. 9, 2011 (X7). Before these three, the previous X-flare occured on Dec.14, 2006, (X1) during old Solar Cycle 23.
August 11
Hi energy solar activity has subsided,(temporarily) in tandem with human flare-ups diminishing.
August 13
A fascinating study by UK neuroscientist Dr John Coates points to the role hormones play in market rises and falls.
This is of great interest in terms of the way in which extra-planetary surges -from the sun, the moon or other planets, particularly related to flares, full moon, other strong planetary line-ups engaging with our planet, could play a triggering role in altering human hormone levels.
High testosterone is featured in big money gains in the stockmarket; stress hormones predominate during volatility. The hormonal floods interfere with rationality. The markets are run by young males, whereas if more women and older men were involved, greater stability could be achieved, he feels. - full article
High testosterone is featured in big money gains in the stockmarket; stress hormones predominate during volatility. The hormonal floods interfere with rationality. The markets are run by young males, whereas if more women and older men were involved, greater stability could be achieved, he feels. - full article
Without a doubt, hormone levels of both kinds were strong amongst the rioters and the beseiged public during the UK riots of early August 2011.
(Aug 6-9). See blog post August 2011 - understanding the turbulence
(Aug 6-9). See blog post August 2011 - understanding the turbulence
also read: Solar activity has subsided to Very Quiet mode
August 17
Another sunspot group is emerging with potential for M class flares
Please see a link added at top of this post, re a Reuters Science article on the effects of geomagnetic activity on human behaviour.
August 18
In view of the increasing solar storm activity expected in the run-up to maximum of solar Cycle 24, expected to peak in 2013, NASA held a conference today to advise of new advance in detection of coronal mass ejections in the near earth environment -their arrival timing and their density, allowing for more precise warning systems re electrical/electronic blackouts. Watch the NASA video:
Update September 7 2011
Within weeks of the first big X Flare in Solar Cycle 24, a further Xclass flare has occurred Sept 6 22.20pm Universal Time (UT)
This has occurred in a market slump phase so if the X flare sends a considerable Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) to earth, the geomagnetic field will be significantly disturbed, with mass behaviour as in the sharemarkets, and crowds, subject to being "spooked"
This NOAA sourced data shows the X-Ray activity on the Sun peaking at 22.20 UT on the far right. The right side scale shows the red reading in the X-class flare zone ( descending strengths are M, C, B, A). The next factor is the production of a CME and whether the sunspot that flared (#1283) is aimed towards earth. The image below from solarmonitor.org shows the central position of 1283, which enables a direct line to earth.
Unless information to the contrary comes to hand, regarding the direction & arrival on earth of the charged solar wind from the CME, expect some earth/behavioural disturbances and turbulence in coming days.
Update: Weatherspace.com says expect earth effects in 48-72 hrs = Thursday-Friday Sept 8-9 ( varying speed of the solar wind makes exact timing difficult)
Sept 8 2011
A second X class flare from the same highly active sunspot (1283) has been detected at 22.38 UT Wednesday -so 2 very similar X flares in 24hrs is certainly unusual - and it will be interesting to see what global dramas coincide Friday into the weekend here on earth. ( A market bounceback on Weds means stocks are in rallying mode but the impact from the solar flares is yet to unfold in terms of terrestrial turbulence. To what degree depends how much of a magnetic hit is absorbed, modulated by the direction of the solar wind and its eventual alignment with earth's magnetic poles)
Sept 9
Space Weather. com is noting: On Sept. 8th at 1546 UT, sunspot 1283 unleashed an M6-class solar flare. Which makes this particular sunspot exceptionally active. Read more (this link reference will expire due to updating in approx 3 days)
This Solar X-Ray Flux graph shows the build-up of activity in recent days - high compared to baseline readings which track along the bottom. Solar Ham provides good explanations
Wall St tumbled on Friday Sept 9 and other global markets have followed suit
Space weather data gives unsettled geo-physical conditions due to magnetic turbulence from the sun impacting earth further in the period Sept 10, 11, 12 -and further if another large M or X class flare erupts within the next 24 hrs adding to the high speed stream (solar wind emitted towards earth) from a large coronal hole.
Sept 10
Goddard Space Center gives a thorough summary with great graphics of recent days solar-earth activity Sept 2011
Sept 18
The NOAA site gives a recent summary showing geomagnetic turbulence increased again on Sept 17
And Solar Ham summarises the background to this recent surge :
Sept 20 2011
A few days of lull in solar activity, but a good time to learn more about the science behind solar flares -NASA reports here on very recent discoveries regarding earth impacts. Of course underlying the acknowledged technological effects lays a myriad of electromagnetic turbulence that can alter human and animal behaviour, weather systems and ultimately earth's structural integrity.
Sept 23
Solar activity has suddenly jumped with an X class Flare ( X1.4) from an emerging sunspot, adding to diverse C class and M class flares amongst the various sunspots in active mode on Sept 22. More info will be updated. Space weather report is here andSolar Ham report here -note the intense flare activity in august and Sept 2011.
NOAA GOES solar flux readings as seen below
This flare eruption has occurred in synchrony with a significant global market fall
Mainstream science has specific parameters for geo-effective events -ie the solar activity that is deemed to have earth effects. Beyond this far broader parameters can be applied in respect of mirror resonancing of solar-earth harmonics - in other words what happens on the sun has a direct impact on earth, whether or not the solar wind from each event totally engulfs earth's physical body.
NOAA's space weather forecasts are also noticeably conservative - usually anticipating low or quiet periods before X and M flare events. Perhaps their modelling lacks good old fashioned systems analysis using the best computer of all, the human brain.
Sept 24
M flares are increasing and another X flare anytime soon is a reasonable possibility with factors like the sun and Uranus in contra-parallel zero degrees on the equator plus New Moon approaching.
For lots of good intro info on solar generated space weather read about the Solar Cycle.
Sept 25
Further activity resulting in an M5 flare at 20.35 UT Sept 24, makes recent days an exciting period for solar watchers and those watching corresponding resonances on earth. It only takes 8mins for the light from a solar flare to reach earth, via our polar magnets, but charged material through the solar wind can take a few days, depending on its highly variable speed. This NOAA graph shows recent activity on the sun, with the flare categories shown down the right side. (Quiet times have readings along the baseline)
Solar Ham has provided this video summary just prior to today's M flare:
(No audio on this)
This app which models Coronal Mass Ejections is one very useful example
The US Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA) says:
September 24, 2011 - NOAA Region 1302 remains impressive and active as it continues its transit across the visible disc. As shown in the GOES X-ray plot below, 1302 produced an R3 (Strong) and multiple R2 (Moderate) flares today. Intermittent degradation to High Frequency communications occurs on the daylight side of the Earth during each respective flare. Also, the slow rise of energetic protons near Earth has flattened out and we are hovering right around the S1 threshold (NOAA Solar Radiation Storm Scales). A fairly fast Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) associated with the long duration R2 flare is partially directed at Earth (long duration meaning long-lasting in time and wider in the graph below, as opposed to the impulsive flares that spike quickly). We won't see the bulk of this CME, but a glancing blow is predicted for late eventing Eastern Time on the 25th (or right around the start of day GMT on the 26th). Geomagnetic Storm levels reaching the G1 (Minor) level are likely with isolated G2 (Moderate) possible, particularly at high latitudes. 1302 remains active so stay tuned for updates.
Sept 28 2011
Solar activity continued a downward trend on Sept 26 and 27 and the volatile markets rebounded.
October 14 2011
Over two weeks now of subdued activity on the sun and no big market news in this time.
Flares have not exceeded C-class.
Looking at the bigger picture: the interference of Pluto (90 degrees) and Saturn ( 0 degrees alignment) to the sun in the past 2 weeks seems to have initiated a limiting factor which was emphasised at the October 12 Full Moon.
Lingering effects could mean more quiet until at least on or around Oct 29 when Jupiter is at opposition (180 degrees)
October 19 2011
As noted by spaceweather.com, the large number of sunspot groups -currently at least 8 - has instead resulted in an unusually quiet sun. The constraining influence by Saturn in direct alignment is a suspect in this situation. From now, as the alignment decreases in intensity, more flare output could be observed, with Oct 29 still looking to have the big potential. Markets have continued their ups & downs but no new drama in this quiet period.
October 20 2011
October 20 2011
latest updates 2013
January 24 2013 : The sun has continued to operate at low levels of activity for several months, despite supposed solar maximum in Cycle 24 approaching fast
See solen.info graphic: the faltering current cycle is clear to see
Global markets also seem to be in something of a holding pattern in this time frame.
February 27 2013
Jittery markets ( Italy, Asia, US) but no massive slump as Italy fails to get a clear election result.
Solar activity remains low in terms of flare activity but the question remains re other solar output -such as the Coronal Mass Ejection of February 25 2013 - seen in this video. CME. Since it occurred on the sun's far side the traditional view is No Earth Impact but keeping an open mind may prove more useful..This broader space view - an animated model suggests earth is way off range, but science continues to discover prior unknown aspects of astrophysics - with the most subtle likely to be the last uncovered.
Solar activity remains low in terms of flare activity but the question remains re other solar output -such as the Coronal Mass Ejection of February 25 2013 - seen in this video. CME. Since it occurred on the sun's far side the traditional view is No Earth Impact but keeping an open mind may prove more useful..This broader space view - an animated model suggests earth is way off range, but science continues to discover prior unknown aspects of astrophysics - with the most subtle likely to be the last uncovered.
March 2 2013
A fast solar wind has brought a minor geomagnetic storm - the most active indicator for several months
Let's not forget about coronal holes and high stream wind perturbing earth's magnetic field. It is worth considering that disturbances in biological systems can also be triggered by these lower profile events - the wind factor has far more subtlety than the drama of flares & CME's which hog the limelight - and arguably those who specialize in these events are the louder, more bold and brash types who feel these events are all that matters. This macho dimension to astrophysics means that so much of the quieter, subtle stuff gets overlooked - thus hindering the whole field of study.
Uncharacteristic out-of-control human or animal behaviour plus explosive, eruptive and inflamed or combustible energies are possibly accentuated as after effects of solar bombardment of earth's atmosphere so fires, bombings, violent or anarchic crime along with natural events of this signature and disturbed 'hive mind' behaviour - which in particular can affect stock markets.
NASA concludes 'something unexpected is happening on the sun' in respect to cycle 24:
March 17 2013
A geomagnetic sudden impulse was recorded in the earth environment on this day, recorded as a strong impact & occurring 2 days after a full halo coronal mass ejection left the sun following the extended eruption of a magnetic filament. Watch and see any flow on effects from this heightened activity.
go to Sun Flares Earth Storms for more detail on the geostorm event of March 17
March 18 2013
Asian Markets fall in response to Cyprus bailout - report
March 19 2013
Global markets trading on March 18 all suffered declines. This coincides with the strong geostorm effect as anticipated
Consistent with the hive-mind aspect of the panic in Cyprus, protests have begun in the capital Nicosia. This situation shows clear examples of the sort of effects of a disturbed electromagnetic environment, subsequent to a solar induced event impacting earth.
Reference to the graphic below shows building activity in the orange trace over March 17-18 - which is frequently seen prior to a larger flare event. In fact within 2 hrs a C4.3 flare occurred on March 19 - so more potentially earth affecting energies could be incoming this week
March 31 2013
Geostorm conditions prevailed on Mar 29 (15:00 to 18:00 hrs Universal Time [UT] and from 00:00-06:00 hrs on March 30 so expect some flow on effects, due to geomagnetic disturbance, in subsequent days - including unsettled markets.
April 11 2013
At 07.16 UT the sun finally produced a whammy after an extended lull -a long duration M6.5 as designated by the red trace detected by the GOES 15 near-earth satellite.
The shielded solar disc outlined in white showing flare at right, 20 mins after event
and below flare site at sunspot 1719 upper centre
This position is earth-facing & likely geo-effective in coming days
Watch April 13-14 for geostorm potentials in the wake of the M6.5 flare & CME on the sun at 07.16 UT on April 11 -the most significant earth-directed flare in several months. Dow Jones has been breaking records and a switch may be in the wings
Screenshot from solarham shows the CME cloud tipped to hit earth from 21:00 hrs UT on the 13th, peaking at 23:00 hrs
May 13 2013
June 2 data via BBC
June 30 2013 update
June 28 saw a strong geomagnetic storm impact earth, as a result of a high stream solar wind in full connection due to south polarity of the Bz component.
There were 15 hours in succession of storm level readings from over K4 up to K7 in the period June 28 21:00 hrs UT to June 29 12:00hrs UT
July 10 Update
While solar activity is increasing in some respects, with May 2013 the last significant burst, this period of supposed maximum is underwhelming in terms of latent potentials repeatedly failing to manifest -in other words the Sun looks like it should be ready to emit significant flares and CME's but more often than not the energy subsides, contributing to an overall very weak cycle
Solen graphic comparison shows this very clearly to the extent that comparisons are easily made with other historic weak cycles eg 12 from1878-1890 and 14 from 1902-1913] which current cycle 24 resembles. Further back, the Dalton Minimum - 1790-1830 is referenced as a similar model.
Weak solar cycles are said to relate to extended global cooling -which flies in the face of the extended global warming lobby.
The present solar situation is not unprecedented but has various quirks which are causing even dedicated solar specialists to scratch their heads.
Regarding major trading market impacts - it is more likely that the potential for these to arise only in the wake of extended high intensity solar activity. If that occurs it will be logged here.
September 15 2013 update
and..
and ...New Zealand sharemarket highest ever at mid September 2013
so if extreme low X-rays = high market this tends to reinforce the proposal that extreme high X-rays = market slump. We have not seen any sustained or major X-ray activity on the sun since May 2013
September 30 2013 update
A large prominence off the sun is sending a significant amount of charged material our way since the event around 9pm universal time on Sept 29.
See this video
October 1 update
A market effect has occurred coinciding with the solar filament and CME event - and the US government shutdown. The US dollar drops along with the Dow Jones [ -128.57 & most other markets.
October 10 2013 update
On this basis you would expect no panic of any significance in the markets.
Even though a double-peak is in progress, 24 [black trace] is closest in activity to 14 [red] virtually a century ago.
Watch April 13-14 for geostorm potentials in the wake of the M6.5 flare & CME on the sun at 07.16 UT on April 11 -the most significant earth-directed flare in several months. Dow Jones has been breaking records and a switch may be in the wings
The Sun in mid -April 2013 has awakened from slumber and has produced a succession of C flares, followed by two M flares. Projections for imminent higher intensity flares have been raised.
Watch your news feeds for earth disturbances including possible market declines if there is a significant geostorm period from April 13 -14 & possibly further as updated.
Refer to geomagnetic storm data
On April 12 2013 at 20.38 UT - an M3.3 flare off of sunspot 1718 - showing that there's a sustained momentum of output currently.
Modest sharemarket declines over past days -BBC April 13:
Modest sharemarket declines over past days -BBC April 13:
April 14 2013
Against all spaceweather predictions, the CME cloud appears to have almost totally missed earth. Ground base magnetometers recorded a sudden impulse at 22:57 on April 13 UT but just a weak event with no geostorm.
The question remains as to whether an as yet unrecognised factor is geoeffective in response to strong solar events, such as the accumulative activity in mid April 2013 so far, since the fact remains that elevated solar activity occurred in this period and from a wholistic perspective, all other players in the solar system are in range of the solar discharges.
LATEST:
May 5 2013
Another flurry of activity on the sun featuring several C and M flares in the beginning days of May add to the activity noted in late April. Sunspot positioning and lack of IMF connection [not enough southward polarity at the critical interaction with earth's geomagnetic field] means that there has not been any sustained geostorming in the period from late March 2013 to early May - M5.7 Flare of May 3
Markets are up :
Let's see what happens to the markets if earth gets pounded by the effects of a string of volatile sunspots facing earth.
April 15 2013 UT
GOLD has plunged 9%
Markets have continued decline in recent days, especially so for the Dow Jones & Nasdaq after the Boston Marathon bombing at 2.50pm local time April 15
Bombs, explosions and market declines are but a few of the signatures identified after strong solar events. -for more detail Sun Flares Earth Storms on this site
Against all spaceweather predictions, the CME cloud appears to have almost totally missed earth. Ground base magnetometers recorded a sudden impulse at 22:57 on April 13 UT but just a weak event with no geostorm.
The question remains as to whether an as yet unrecognised factor is geoeffective in response to strong solar events, such as the accumulative activity in mid April 2013 so far, since the fact remains that elevated solar activity occurred in this period and from a wholistic perspective, all other players in the solar system are in range of the solar discharges.
LATEST:
May 5 2013
Another flurry of activity on the sun featuring several C and M flares in the beginning days of May add to the activity noted in late April. Sunspot positioning and lack of IMF connection [not enough southward polarity at the critical interaction with earth's geomagnetic field] means that there has not been any sustained geostorming in the period from late March 2013 to early May - M5.7 Flare of May 3
Markets are up :
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| MARKETWATCH TICKER |
April 15 2013 UT
GOLD has plunged 9%
Markets have continued decline in recent days, especially so for the Dow Jones & Nasdaq after the Boston Marathon bombing at 2.50pm local time April 15
Bombs, explosions and market declines are but a few of the signatures identified after strong solar events. -for more detail Sun Flares Earth Storms on this site
May 13 2013
Three X-flares in quick succession over May 13-14 makes this period the strongest solar activity for 2013. Sunspot 1748 on the solar eastern flank and moving into earth view
According to spaceweather.com all of the flares have produced strong flashes of extreme ultra-violet radiation along with coronal mass ejections [CME] This collectively constitutes a strong surge in solar activity heading towards cycle 24 max.
Though the far edge positioning of the flare site meant the CMEs are not aimed directly towards earth, the question remains whether the energetic turbulence alone created by these rapid fire events will have noticeable flow on effects behaviorally and in electronic and natural systems - such as weather - in coming days. Chances are an earth facing CME could occur with geomagnetic storming recorded within days. A good time to watch market effects for anticipated dips.
May 26 2013
Recent geomagnetic readings
Coronal hole derived solar wind plus a shockwave have combined to elevate geomagnetic levels to storming
Hi speed solar wind up to 800kms/sec has been a feature on June 2 after the shockwave recorded on May 31 at 16:18 UT. Speed began rising on May 31 and coupled with a recurrent south polarity, strong geomagnetic coupling has ensued
This
sort of sustained collection of red bars on the graph has not been seen
since March 2013 so chaotic disturbances in weather, electronics, &
biological systems may be evidenced June 2-4 especially, based on the
above readings
Though the far edge positioning of the flare site meant the CMEs are not aimed directly towards earth, the question remains whether the energetic turbulence alone created by these rapid fire events will have noticeable flow on effects behaviorally and in electronic and natural systems - such as weather - in coming days. Chances are an earth facing CME could occur with geomagnetic storming recorded within days. A good time to watch market effects for anticipated dips.
May 26 2013
Recent geomagnetic readings
These two sets of readings impacting earth, weather, biological and technological systems occurred in close succession in May. Though not at the high end of geomagnetic turbulence, the sustained activity is likely to have had flow on effects and the situation is made more complex with the lunar eclipse of May 25 - see blog entry on this site. Many examples of extreme behaviour & extreme weather have been in global news
June 2013Coronal hole derived solar wind plus a shockwave have combined to elevate geomagnetic levels to storming
Hi speed solar wind up to 800kms/sec has been a feature on June 2 after the shockwave recorded on May 31 at 16:18 UT. Speed began rising on May 31 and coupled with a recurrent south polarity, strong geomagnetic coupling has ensued
June 30 2013 update
June 28 saw a strong geomagnetic storm impact earth, as a result of a high stream solar wind in full connection due to south polarity of the Bz component.
There were 15 hours in succession of storm level readings from over K4 up to K7 in the period June 28 21:00 hrs UT to June 29 12:00hrs UT
This
was a long duration geomagnetic event bringing northern lights as far
south as Kansas and in NewZealand up to Wellington, latitude 41 South.
Flow
on effects are anticipated in earth systems - natural, biological and
electronic. Watch for relevant news of related turbulence in weather,
human/animal behaviour, system malfunctions, sharemarket panic [not extreme but causing instability] especially July 1-2. July 10 Update
 |
| current cycle 24 shows little energy - source SOLEN |
Solen graphic comparison shows this very clearly to the extent that comparisons are easily made with other historic weak cycles eg 12 from1878-1890 and 14 from 1902-1913] which current cycle 24 resembles. Further back, the Dalton Minimum - 1790-1830 is referenced as a similar model.
Weak solar cycles are said to relate to extended global cooling -which flies in the face of the extended global warming lobby.
The present solar situation is not unprecedented but has various quirks which are causing even dedicated solar specialists to scratch their heads.
Regarding major trading market impacts - it is more likely that the potential for these to arise only in the wake of extended high intensity solar activity. If that occurs it will be logged here.
September 15 2013 update
 |
| Solar x rays are dismally & unusually low Sept 2013 |
so if extreme low X-rays = high market this tends to reinforce the proposal that extreme high X-rays = market slump. We have not seen any sustained or major X-ray activity on the sun since May 2013
A large prominence off the sun is sending a significant amount of charged material our way since the event around 9pm universal time on Sept 29.
See this video
A market effect has occurred coinciding with the solar filament and CME event - and the US government shutdown. The US dollar drops along with the Dow Jones [ -128.57 & most other markets.
October 10 2013 update
The sun IS behaving oddly still at solar max -with a tendency now to produce large magnetic filament eruptions paired with CME - instead of large flares - but on Oct 9 at 01.48 UT an M flare - M2.8 occurred.
From recent activity in October there have been 2 moderate geomagnetic storms from CME impact
The solar proton radiation level from the Sept 29 event shot up to S2 storm level -extending from this graphic
There have been coinciding market effects with more losses than gains since the Sept 29 solar outburst
October 10 2013
Subscribe to Tamitha Skov for detailed solar storm videos like this one for recent events
The storm of the decade was centred around
The US dollar continues to decline, hitting a new low of 1.2 against the euro; the dollar is suffering from deteriorating support against the background of a large current account deficit and fears of growing protectionism
From recent activity in October there have been 2 moderate geomagnetic storms from CME impact
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| Oct 2 |
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| Oct 9 |
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| Red 10Mev line had a near vertical trajectory over 24 hrs |
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| BBC business data page |
Subscribe to Tamitha Skov for detailed solar storm videos like this one for recent events
 |
| compare this to the mediocre storms of late |
The storm of the decade was centred around
Nov 20 2003 in terms of geomagnetic storming
from solar spaceweather
Dow Jones records show by end of 2003 the index had made a big recovery from 7,673.99 in March 03 to 10453.92 and remained fairly consistent until October 10 2008 when the index was 8,451.19. slumping to 6,626.94 by March 6 2009
info source
Wikipedia entry for Dec 2 2003 says;Dow Jones records show by end of 2003 the index had made a big recovery from 7,673.99 in March 03 to 10453.92 and remained fairly consistent until October 10 2008 when the index was 8,451.19. slumping to 6,626.94 by March 6 2009
info source
The US dollar continues to decline, hitting a new low of 1.2 against the euro; the dollar is suffering from deteriorating support against the background of a large current account deficit and fears of growing protectionism
The Dollar bottomed out against the Euro in 2010 at 1.19
In October 2013 at 1.35 it continues ascendancy - but still to beat the Feb 1 2013 peak of 1.36
November 2013
An interesting development worth considering:
in the wake of weeks of high solar activity -though little geomagnetic disturbance- the Dow Jones keeps reaching new peaks -somewhat mirroring the flare activity upsurge versus the geomagnetic index shown below:look at the planetary data -not localised
.
This raises the question of whether high solar activity can generate behavioural & hence market extremes in either direction.
2014
The year has begun with promise but no delivery as Cycle 24 continues to underwhelm in its magnetic output -the biggest sunspots of late [1967 & 1944] despite their unstable rating produced nothing of significance in the territory of X-flares.
November 2013
An interesting development worth considering:
in the wake of weeks of high solar activity -though little geomagnetic disturbance- the Dow Jones keeps reaching new peaks -somewhat mirroring the flare activity upsurge versus the geomagnetic index shown below:look at the planetary data -not localised
.
This raises the question of whether high solar activity can generate behavioural & hence market extremes in either direction.
Keep watching though as a potential geomagnetic storm is imminent -ETA Nov 13 as per modelling showing earth swamped with solar plasma
  collective planetary readings = 3rd down shows nothing over level 4 in period Nov 5 to 12 COLLEGE is in Alaska & shows strongest readings |
 |
The year has begun with promise but no delivery as Cycle 24 continues to underwhelm in its magnetic output -the biggest sunspots of late [1967 & 1944] despite their unstable rating produced nothing of significance in the territory of X-flares.
This recent screengrab of planetary Kp magnetic activity impacting Earth shows the most that has happened in succession, so far in 2014 = virtually zilch.
On this basis you would expect no panic of any significance in the markets.
The most dedicated solar observers are unable to predict the end stages of this solar cycle since it's behaviour is unusual
SOLEN graphically compares this cycle to other historical fizzers
Even though a double-peak is in progress, 24 [black trace] is closest in activity to 14 [red] virtually a century ago.
Observers say "if the current lull in solar activity “endures in the 21st century the Sun shall enter a Dalton-like grand minimum. It was a period of global cooling.” -source
February 19 2014
As with prior reports on this cycle at its maximum phase,there has been little activity recorded that shows the sun's potential.
The pattern continues of lower than expected solar activity, with some M flare swarms but no equivalent activity at the level of X flares.
Intermittent filament eruptions.
The Kp index below shows the strongest geomagnetic storming so far in 2014 -representing 15 hrs of particle storming intensity with associated aurora at both poles.
This still may lack the punch to knock out any market stability in subsequent days
February 21 2014
The combined effects of a recent -& unusual for this cycle -flurry of solar activity meant that earth experienced 2 magnetic storms in close succession this week.
The second weaker than the first & with potentially another to follow makes the time frame from Feb 19-23 approx one to watch in terms of market dips
February 25 2014
The sun has just managed to pump out the 3rd biggest flare in the current cycle = an X4.9
There was a CME -mass ejection of charged material into space -but the location being far left edge puts the full force away from the sun-earth trajectory.
Earth orbits the equatorial region of the sun
The X3.9 was south and east [which is to the left in relation to earth] the bright zone
which is the extreme ultraviolet wavelength flash is shown in this space telescope image at 01.30, occulted at the centre so the sun [white circle] is obscured.
It will be interesting to see what flow on effects may occur on earth
Within 3 hours of the event the solar protons started rising in the near earth environment
Update March 14 2014
A sustained solar proton storm was experienced around earth from Feb 25, with significant decline from March 2
Proton levels did not return to baseline for several days beyond March 3
Market instability soon followed.
The US DOW shot up on March 7 then declines were recorded on March 10 in the US & other markets -report
Update June 5 2014
Markets are high and solar activity continues to remain low to very low in the current solar sunspot cycle with the odd outburst -last seen June 2014.
But no sustained impact here on earth despite some impressive bursts.
The Dow is closing in on 17,000 -detailed blog report
Update July 22 2014
Solar activity reached an unusual lull from mid-July -and this has coincided with Wall St reaching a record high
The solar radiation output measured by the red and orange traces in the near-earth environment only rose on July 20 due to a farside coronal mass ejection [not on earth-side] Sunspots virtually disappeared from the disc in what is supposedly the peak sunspot phase
Spaceweather continued to report the lull:
Sunspots however are not the only source of solar magnetic effects impacting Earth - when filament eruptions occur there can be noticeable earth responses.
In July so far none of note have occurred.
What is most interesting in July is the lock-up of Saturn and Uranus - both positioned at 16 degrees -a situation that has coincided with much military aggression.
The blocking effect of this paired configuration may have had a suppressive effect on solar magnetism.
Update August 1 2014
After an extended lull, solar activity increased from July 30.
On that day a large filament erupted sending considerable solar material into space
A moderate increase from July 30 in X-ray flux near Earth, but the M flare on July 31 was the first since July 10
2015
June solar storm
The magnetic intensity delivered on June 22-23 will have rattled some markets, as well as generalised effects aggravating extreme human behaviour, stirring up earth's atmosphere toward severe weather effects & the range of potentials noted
in this & other posts on solar flare impacts - in whatever contexts resonant most closely with the prevailing vibrational pattern.
Market volatility noted in this report
February 19 2014
As with prior reports on this cycle at its maximum phase,there has been little activity recorded that shows the sun's potential.
The pattern continues of lower than expected solar activity, with some M flare swarms but no equivalent activity at the level of X flares.
Intermittent filament eruptions.
The Kp index below shows the strongest geomagnetic storming so far in 2014 -representing 15 hrs of particle storming intensity with associated aurora at both poles.
This still may lack the punch to knock out any market stability in subsequent days
 |
| strongest burst since June 30 2013 |
The combined effects of a recent -& unusual for this cycle -flurry of solar activity meant that earth experienced 2 magnetic storms in close succession this week.
The second weaker than the first & with potentially another to follow makes the time frame from Feb 19-23 approx one to watch in terms of market dips
The sun has just managed to pump out the 3rd biggest flare in the current cycle = an X4.9
Earth orbits the equatorial region of the sun
The X3.9 was south and east [which is to the left in relation to earth] the bright zone
It will be interesting to see what flow on effects may occur on earth
Within 3 hours of the event the solar protons started rising in the near earth environment
Update March 14 2014
A sustained solar proton storm was experienced around earth from Feb 25, with significant decline from March 2
Proton levels did not return to baseline for several days beyond March 3
Market instability soon followed.
The US DOW shot up on March 7 then declines were recorded on March 10 in the US & other markets -report
Update June 5 2014
Markets are high and solar activity continues to remain low to very low in the current solar sunspot cycle with the odd outburst -last seen June 2014.
But no sustained impact here on earth despite some impressive bursts.
The Dow is closing in on 17,000 -detailed blog report
Update July 22 2014
The solar radiation output measured by the red and orange traces in the near-earth environment only rose on July 20 due to a farside coronal mass ejection [not on earth-side] Sunspots virtually disappeared from the disc in what is supposedly the peak sunspot phase
Spaceweather continued to report the lull:
In July so far none of note have occurred.
What is most interesting in July is the lock-up of Saturn and Uranus - both positioned at 16 degrees -a situation that has coincided with much military aggression.
The blocking effect of this paired configuration may have had a suppressive effect on solar magnetism.
Update August 1 2014
After an extended lull, solar activity increased from July 30.
On that day a large filament erupted sending considerable solar material into space
A moderate increase from July 30 in X-ray flux near Earth, but the M flare on July 31 was the first since July 10
2015
June solar storm
Market volatility noted in this report
