Solar Activity High, Markets Slump

Observing any synchronous connections between global markets and other mass behaviour, in concert with strong solar output impacting earth. (conversely when solar activity impacting earth is low, less disturbance may stabilize markets, on account of human behaviour.
Updates will continue to be added to this page, but a  cached copy of the original post has now been lost

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July 2014:  from July no further updates here

Please visit Solar Activity Effect on Trading Markets

April 13 [UT] 2013

With a smaller M3.3 flare on April 12 20:38 UT adding to recent higher than recent average solar activity markets have been shown declines: April 13 BBC listings:

April 12 2013

Watch April 13-14  for geostorm potentials in the wake of the M6.5 flare & CME on the sun at 07.16 UT on April 11 -the most significant earth-directed flare in several months. Dow Jones has been breaking records and a switch may be in the wings

March 18 2013

This graphic shoes how earth's geomagnetic field shot into the red zone on March 17 following the filament eruption-CME on the sun around 48 hrs prior. 

The spaceweather modelling animation sourced here shows a full envelopment of earth in the solar charged material.

In terms of extended analysis beyond the mainstream view of disturbances to GPS, satellite, electronics, in the wake of such an event, in simple terms, expect drama - since the earth itself, weather, biological systems - i.e. natural forces and living beings are all bathed in the highly charged electrical soup and therefore vulnerable to effects. Increased seismic-volcanic activity expected. Weather more disturbed. Prior events of energetic storming on earth show a spike in inflamed, explosive, combustible energies -reflected in fires, bombs, military responses, more news with crimes based on anger, aggression, violence; animals attacking humans; strongly collective or hive-mind activity such as in mass protests and market behaviour.

 [ updated graphs as above will be added when released]

March 17 2013

A geomagnetic sudden impulse was recorded in the earth environment on this day, recorded as a strong impact & occurring 2 days after a full halo coronal mass ejection left the sun following the extended eruption of a magnetic filament. Watch and see any flow on effects from this heightened activity.

March 5 2013

A leap in markets - with Dow jones at a new all-time high of 14,259 - report .

This may reflect in terms of solar activity factors, such an unusually long lull in perturbing factors. But interestingly, the sun on the same day, March 5 produced an M1 flare on the earth facing side but also a massive CME on the far side.

In terms of positioning, Earth is in the next orbital ring beyond Venus but it is currently on March 5 2013 in the region of the left horizonal arrow & out of view, more clearly shown in this March 5 Fourmilab graphic [ circle with inner cross = earth]

Let's see if there's a sudden reversal of fortunes in coming days as the solar wind hits earth as projected by this graphic [ full animation at source site - note: will expire ]

Click to enlarge & see how green earth dot is in the swirl on & around March 9

see animation

                  

February 27 2013

Jittery markets ( Italy, Asia, US) but no massive slump as Italy fails to get a clear election result.

Solar activity remains low in past several months, in terms of flare activity but the question remains re other solar output -such as the Coronal Mass Ejection of February 25 2013 - seen in this video.CME. Since it occurred on the sun's far side the traditional view is No Earth Impact but keeping an open mind may prove more useful..This broader space view -an animated model suggests earth is way off range, but science continues to discover prior unknown aspects of astrophysics - with the most subtle likely to be the last uncovered.

July 1 2012

By the end of June sunspot 1513 has delivered 3 M flares since June 28. In addition, a large coronal hole and significant prominence are indicating a sudden uptick in potentially geo-effective solar activity. Earth's magnetic readings have risen on June 30 UT:

June 24 2012

The unusually sluggish patterns of solar cycle 24 continue - with less happening rather than more - as we head to sunspot maximum in 2013, this cycle is looking like other historic lows -refer to solen graph.

Less spots, less, flares, are only part of the picture though, as the sun can produce filaments of magnetism with associated CMEs and large coronal holes emit powerful high speed wind which has geoeffective potential when earth facing and plugged in to our planet when a southward polarity of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field prevails for an extended period. It's a watch period from now until maximum around May 2013 to see just how much spark the sun will deliver to us in this phase of the cycle before the next decline.

June 16 2012 

Spaceweather sources report that only a weak interplanetary shock wave impacted earth at 09:00 UT with no geostorming.

June 15 2012

A second long duration CME out of sunspot 1504 reinforces the potency of this large, currently earth facing, magnetic crucible. A M1.9 flare occurred as the precursor to the CME, on June 14 at 14.36 UT.

The close proximity to the prior CME out of spot 1504 on June 13 ( M1.2 flare) means the high speed solar wind has combined. The 2nd CME sent wind at 1360km/sec according to spaceweather.com.

If the IMF tips persistently south when the combined wind arrives around June 16, then strong geostorming will result with subsequent potential disturbance to any natural & man-made systems.

On June 18 the moon is in maximum north declination relative to thje earth. On June 20 there is a New Moon. These extra geophysical stress factors may synergistically combine with effects from the highly charged earth radiation belts once the solar wind reaches earth
June 14 2012
Mainly a quiet phase involving low level C flares and sporadic M flares with few geo-effective indicators on the usual indices. Only June 11-12 saw 6 hrs of level 5 readings on the Kp index -meaning May and June so far have been underwhelming. Even with recent large coronal holes and high speed solar wind there has rarely been much observed plug-in to earth in the past 6 weeks. Low level M flares occurred on June 6, June 9, June 13 & it is difficult to conclusively say what effect any of these could be having other than adding general turbulence. A significant X flare with geoeffective CME or large coronal hole with earth-facing high speed wind is awaited for comparison in terms of global flow on disturbance.
June 4 2012
 Solar activity wakes up as the Dow plunges

The earth based readings reflect recent prior solar activity

a 3.3 M-flare on June 3 UT will add to effects of a high speed solar wind stream heading for earth ETA June4-6.

       Coronal Hole CH520 is large and earth facing -  sending charged wind in earth's direction
This increased activity coincides with a lunar eclipse supermoon [ = close perigee] in maximum south declination, enhancing solar-lunar potentials in geoeffective events. (June 2012 eclipse)

May 31 2012

Ongoing very low solar activity is being noted.

May 17 2012

Sunspot 1476 underwhelmed solar watchers until a long duration M5.1 flare today - right at the edge of rotation

The sudden vertical spike at around 01.30 hrs UT  with subsequent CME, causing a radiation storm of solar protons around earth. Speeds exceeded 1500km/sec. There was also a far-side [ back of sun] CME also today, around 1600 hrs UT - see the red trace rise there.

This solar activity is coinciding with worsening economic news. For a full forecast see May 2012 lunar & eclipse post. It's important.

May 9 2012

Market declines have coincided not only with the election of Francois Hollande in France & the Greek crisis, but also with an uptick in solar activity related to a large coronal hole high speedstream and the magnetic fireworks related to massive sunspot 1476 this week. Things could get very interesting if the readings below shoot to the X category on the right hand scale in the next 7 or so days.  Watch the markets in the further 10-14 days ahead

The peaks in the red trace represent several higher intensity flares from earth-facing sunspots from May 7-10 2012.

solar disc late May 8 2012 - red coronal holes and spot 1476 very clear.

 - via SOLEN

April 26 2012

Recent readings compiled by NOAA SWPC from various northern hemisphere locations plus the estimated planetary readings compared:

                                     This phase could have more steam left in it if sunspot 1465 erupts
                                            Worth watching to see if any market effects ensue
April 24 [UT] 2012
The last significant geoeffective activated phase was on April 13.

Ten days later the sun has sent material in earth's direction, which has "plugged in" effectively in the time from 03:25 UT on April 23 to present 03:10 UT on April 24

News is in of a world share/stock market drop - report

Geomagnetic data up to end of day April 23 2012 shows the progression to red-bar storm level disturbance. The first 3 hours of April 24 UT have seen the level reach K6 -

April 15 2012
Watching solar activity in case of an upsurge in flares, CMEs, - this is an ongoing link so material relevant to April 2012 will soon expire, as daily updates on the solen site proceed

April 11 2012
Markets have been more down than up in the aftermath of March's sustained solar onslaught against planet earth.  Since the start of April, little geomagnetic interference from solar output.
BBC today:

March 30 2012
Nothing dramatic market wise but the Russian situation has been a bit shaky
March 23 2012
This has been an interesting solar flare-CME-High Speed Solar Stream combo period, with the last M flare on March 17.  The extended onslaught clearly churned up the geomagnetic field as evidenced by the strong spate of auroras.  In Norway by March 22, March had aurora on 18 nights. By March 23 global markets are down, though not a horror show.

NASA analysed geomagnetically disturbed days on earth over a 75 yr period and they now consider the spring and fall or autumn equinoxes (equal day-night points) of March & September to herald the greater frequency of disturbances and auroras, extending in to April-October: March tops the data, followed by October, April then September.

Feed these four months into a statistical calculation after you read the list of stock market crashes. As a group they feature very highly, with October being particularly prominent - eg 1907, 1929, 1987, 1989, 1992, 1997, 2002. This if course doesn't mean the next big crash will happen in October - a big momentum of solar activity coincided with the August 2011 slump.
Best policy is to keep watching the sun as we enter the maximum phase of Cycle 24

March 12 2012

South pointing polarity has occurred quite consistently but the full strength of recent flare events is past.

This list of strongest flares since 2010 ( prior to that was a lengthy lull) gives clear indicators of why August-September 2011 was significant in terms of global markets

 August 3-Sept 24 2011 saw a swarm of strong flares ( along with many smaller) Most of these associated with a Coronal Mass Ejection and 6 of the eleven events produced a strong to severe geomagnetic storm (G3-4)
This sort of intensity is probably what is required to send the markets into a panic. 
A summary so far of geomagnetic storms in sunspot Cycle 24:
September 2011 stands out having 6 geomagnetic storms in one calendar month - see full data in prior list

March 9 2012

The full potentials of the current solar storm are yet to be realised as the solar field is not fully plugged in to earth. For full effects the solar magnetic field needs to be in negative [south] polarity. For the most part this has not happened. When negative, the field can strongly flow into earth's magnetic environment.

Follow the red trace to see when it dips - and stays persistently - south of the midline  - Solar Wind data

At 21.40 UT March 8 this is the screenshot:

March 8

 Indicators already apparent regarding the beginning of major geomagnetic effects due to persistent flaring on the sun. Power systems, GPS, satellites and biological systems all vulnerable to disruption / disturbance. Watch from March 7 (UT Universal Time) as the first wave of effects impact earth, what unfolds in global markets as well.

 

Data from solar.ham site

A major X flare unleashed March 7 0.24hrs UT

                BBC Horizon 2012 series promo on space weather

March 7 2012 (NZT)
A flurry of flares continues including now an X5.4 off of sunspot 1429 bringing the most consistent flare delivery for some considerable time & more expected.
As anticipated there has already been significant market dip news -this from the US

View the article from March 6 2012

March 5 2012 (NZ time)

Today 4.58 pm local time the first X flare for 2012 (X1.1) The most recent prior X flare was in Nov 2011 - X1.9 
Lets see if the geoeffective consequences are significant enough to disturb human behaviour - and the financial markets

Feb 24 2012 

Solar activity has been remarkably subdued with flatlining occurring on the X-Ray graphs from GOES.

Very little geoeffective activity and no significant global market news.

The largest flare in 2012 so far was on Jan 23 = M8.7 = almost an X

Feb 2 2012 

No significant news from the global sharemarkets and the sun has had moderate geoeffective output.

Recap: Jan 14 saw first M flare (M1.0) for 2012; Jan 23 saw largest flare (M8.7). We have not seen an X flare for months. Also refer to data provided by SolarHam 

Jan17 2012

Since last report, just two low level M class flares - latest Jan 17, M1.0

No geomagnetic storms for some time

Jan 4 2012

Since New Year 2012, geo-effective solar activity has declined back gradually to B class level. Stockmarkets generally & those in US, China have opened positively.

Dec 30

As anticipated, an M class flare from sunspot 1389 on Dec 29 UT amidst a flurry of C flares. then just in, a second M flare as pictured below. More expected. So far nothing has impacted the geomagnetic field. US market is up.

This pattern is a big change from recent flatlining of the orange band along the base,  and the red band equally dormant in the B class

Magnetic Readings on earth have yet to reach Red(Storm) level
Website

Dec 29

Sustained C class flares on Dec 27, 28. Markets are now down but no significant slump is expected until flares return to sustained M class or especially X class, with resultant geoeffective turbulence. Charged solar wind from a large solar coronal hole is about to reach earth at year's end. The solar wind's magnetic field (Bz component) is currently in North polarity at 0hr UT - which is not the most geoeffective. Incoming solar material disturbs earth most when the Bz is South.

Sunspot group 1389 promises bigger flare /CME action.

Dec 27     Now three M class flares since Xmas Day 2011

CLICK TO ENLARGE = GOES graphic

Dec 26

Now two M flares -  may precede a bigger X flare.
A smaller M1.5 flare on Dec 26 hot on the heels of:

The largest flare for weeks: M4.0 at 18.16 Universal Time on Christmas Day, coinciding with a complex of solar-lunar-other planetary tensions. Has sent an earth directed CME, incoming around Dec 28 UTC.  May not be strong enough to scare the markets!

Dec 13
Watch Dec 18-19 to see if there's geo-effective space turbulence affecting the markets as there's certainly  "economic dampner" "financial drain" "money worries" planetary influences on those days.

Dec 7-Dec 13 2011 Still no significant geoeffective activity to report, during this unexpectedly lingering phase of relative quiet on the sun. The spots keep coming and they keep promising/threatening, but then they degrade. After this phase, the pattern breaker when it comes could be significant in terms of upsetting the current very fragile equilibrium in the global markets.
Meanwhile here's an easy to follow explanation of earth directed solar material 
There is an imminent eclipse in the wings - total lunar visible in the southern hemisphere coinciding with the moon at maximum north declination in respect of the earth. These factors can trigger turbulence. Exactitude is Dec 10 though the building phase & aftermath phase makes for a period of Dec 7-13 to watch. Also take note of the December  solstice  when the Sun is at zero degrees of the cardinal sign Capricorn and therefore one of the traditional four seasonal markers. This year the Moon is perigee  (closest orb for the month) on Dec 22. Solstice is also on Dec 22. Moon is maximum south on Dec 23 and the New Moon is on the 24th. So this is a whole bunch of factors all compressing into a brief time frame. One source I follow is suggesting there will be enough strain generated to have significant impact on the tectonic state of the planet with significant seismic consequences. Watch and see if the sun gets more active and human behaviour in general and market activity are perturbed by the highly charged atmosphere.


 Nov 28 Flares remain low level but the sun is not quiet. Geomagnetic storming is anticipated today:
spaceweather.com says:
A solar radiation storm is in progress around Earth. At the moment, the storm is classified as minor, which means it has little effect on our planet other than to disturb HF radio transmissions at high latitudes. Bigger effects, however, may be in the offing. The same explosion on Nov. 26th that caused the radiation storm also hurled a CME into space at about 930 km/s (2 million mph). According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME will reach Earth on Nov. 28th at 17:21 UT (+/- 7 hours).
In adddition after an extended period of no coronal holes, solar wind from a current hole is expected on Nov 29 which may be evidenced by geophysical turbulence.


Nov 24 - Only C class activity since the last update,  but on Tuesday 22 (Universal Time) three CME's were emitted from the far side of the sun. As not perceived as earth-directed, mainstream science says irrelevant to earth.  But last time I looked there was no wall or fences stopping perturbations spreading across space and having some earth impact. Between 23-26 Nov there is perigee moon, new moon partial solar eclipse and moon at max south declination = 3 strong gravational or tidal synergies in a brief time span, so space weather impacts on earth weather and human responses are anticipated. in this time frameup to next week in particular.

Nov 16 - Levels picking up hovering under/over M-class levels - NOAA graphic:

Nov 13 The geomagnetic response to the CME was low but solar watchers are focussed on a giant plasma filament - full report
Nov 12 C5 level flare spikes on the 11th but nothing breaching the M class range.  A CME is incoming and expected to produce a moderate geomagnetic storm

Nov 10

NOAA graphic may point to an imminent M flare

Nov 11 NOAA says An increase to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on day 2 (11 November) as the effects of a CME, from 08 November, are forecast. An increase to unsettled to active conditions on day 3 (12 November) is expected, as the CME, associated with today's M1 flare, is expected to become geoeffective.    (CME =coronal mass ejection of charged material from the sun)

Read about the current Solar Cycle 24 

Nov 10  Flare activity on Nov 9 up to M class level after a lull period, has coincided with the Dow dropping 388 points - MARKET REPORT

This NOAA proton graph shows the decline

and from Solar Ham:  A moderate Solar Flare reaching M1.1 took place at 13:35 UTC Wednesday morning around Sunspot 1342 which is located in the northeast quadrant. It now looks like a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) resulted and a portion of it may be Earth Directed.
Bear in mind that energetic protons can reach earth as quickly as 30 mins after the peak of a major flare.

Nov 8

The recent solar flare activity was not sufficiently earth-directed to create a geomagnetic storm and resulting energetic turbulence. X-ray flux has declined since the graph below and no further M flares have occurred up to late Monday Universal Time (UTC) but watchers expect more from sunspot group 1339. Markets too are in a holding pattern.

click to enlarge NOAA GOES X-Ray flux graph

After an X-flare in recent days, several M flares have occurred.
Sunspot 1339 is a large grouping & is under observation.

November 6

November 2011 has begun strongly in terms of reinvigorated solar output after a quiet October with no X flares. This week could offer a big burst of activity, so lets see how the global markets & mass behaviour are responding.

The premise outlined in my original, lost document,  was whether high solar output has an effect on global sharemarkets and other mass behaviour -since both involve, in effect, a group mind phenomenon, which could be "spooked" by strong electromagnetic impulses -as when the earth receives a strong feed of protons, electrons as a result of solar activity.