Wednesday 21 January 2015

China in Decline -the past revisited




News on January 20 2015 re the decline in China's economy prompts a review of this astroblog post from 2013 re the astrological warning signs for China returning: 
The November 17 2013 post:
I recently watched Niall Ferguson's series China Triumph & Turmoil [ You Tube has 4 episodes] in order to understand the mind of the dragon nation - now as we face an increasingly easternized world - see this post also related to Ferguson's proposals for an historical shift

While watching the episode related to the famine in the years surrounding 1960 -the Great Chinese Famine 1958-1961 with mass fatalities from starvation on account of a mega failure of Maoist policy involving greatly reduced food production, coupled with drought & adverse weather I was very interested to see the astrological picture in effect at that time and the connections to the astrology of China

To select a "birth" chart for a nation is not easy because there can be many new beginnings. When the Chinese Soviet Republic chart [1931] is considered there is much more of current relevance than the People's Republic chart [1949]
 I believe the austerity, famine, drought, large scale transformational energy of this chart was activated during the Great China Famine - and that it will be activated again in the period starting in the middle of 2015, further strengthening from March 2016, noticeably as 2017 begins, throughout 2017, sustained through 2018, 2019

In the China Soviet chart:
  • Saturn 18 Capricorn-Pluto 22 Cancer both at 90 degree angle to Uranus at 16 Aries with midpoint of 19 Cardinal are the energy points about to be re-awakened
The Energy Re-visited:
  • The process begins from 2015 with Uranus, Pluto and Saturn all activating the 16-22 degrees of the cardinal signs Aries and Capricorn 
  • The spectre of drought-related food shortages and severe reductions in production is revisited with Saturn passing through the growth and production sign Sagittarius in the period 2015-2017

The Consequences
  • The scale of impact gives rise to considerations of an economic meltdown impacting the world -but which originates in China -not in the West as many expect. Global effects are now the consequence of globalisation & the expanded footprint China has in multiple countries

The Deeper Meaning:

Activations of the cardinal signs Aries, Libra, Cancer, Capricorn signify gross imbalances come to light and must be corrected.
Humanity faces the agenda preprogrammed by natural forces


In the Great China Famine:
Saturn was in Sagittarius in 1957-1958 = the decline in growth & production
Environmental factors very relevant as well as policy effects
Saturn was in Capricorn 1959, 1960, 1961 = extreme austerity phase

With Sun-Mercury-Venus in Scorpio in the China-Soviet chart - transformational periods are very natural in the course of China's modern history.
Pluto [by connection to Scorpio] is therefore very relevant and having intense links to Saturn [by opposition] and Uranus [by 90 degree square] the potential for cycles of mass disaster, death, annihilation and destruction are anticipated both in the human and natural environments

Update February 14 2014
Economist Nouriel Roubini is quoted as follows in a recent Guardian article:

Then, there are the over-hyped Brics countries, now falling back to reality. Three of them (Brazil, Russia, and South Africa) will grow more slowly than the United States this year, with real (inflation-adjusted) GDP rising at less than 2.5%, while the economies of the other two (China and India) are slowing sharply. Indeed, Brazil, India, and South Africa are members of the Fragile Five, and demographic decline in China and Russia will undermine both countries' potential growth.

The largest of the Brics, China, faces additional risk stemming from a credit-fuelled investment boom, with excessive borrowing by local governments, state-owned enterprises, and real-estate firms severely weakening the asset portfolios of banks and shadow banks. Most credit bubbles this large have ended up causing a hard economic landing, and China's economy is unlikely to escape unscathed, particularly as reforms to rebalance growth from high savings and fixed investment to private consumption are likely to be implemented too slowly, given the powerful interests aligned against them.

Moreover, the deep causes of last year's turmoil in emerging markets have not disappeared. For starters, the risk of a hard landing in China poses a serious threat to emerging Asia, commodity exporters around the world, and even advanced economies.

Also refer to January 2014 report on China's risky credit boom

the above exacts from Nov 2013-Feb 2014 were originally published in a larger post on the decline of the West

2015 Update
2015 indicators at the beginning of July 2015 are consistent with this pathway:
China rolls out emergency measures to avoid market crash

LAST GASP: Pluto in Capricorn

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