No Assurance: Insurance - the tide has turned

                Stress Toy  - source Amazon.com

Since 2011, you could be forgiven for feeling that the tide has turned on the viability of insurance, yet for many it is a non-negotiable situation, a requisite to secure an asset for one's creditors.
But the buck has to stop somewhere, and it does when the risk exceeds the tipping point for the insurer, the re-insurer and whoever rides above that level. Swiss Re is one of the big global players.

Wikipedia describes Insurance as:
a risk management technique primarily used to hedge against the risk of a contingent, uncertain loss that may be suffered by those individuals or entities who have an insurable interest in scarce resources, by transferring the possibility of this loss from one interested person, persons, or entity to another.
The scarce resources referred to here fall into three divisions: human resources, financial resources, and capital, or tangible resources.
In the context of insurance, scarce resources are also known as "exposures," because they are "exposed" to perils, those things, or forces, which cause destruction or reduction, in the usefulness, or value, of an exposed resource. Human resources are thus exposed to perils such as illness or death; financial resources to legal judgements that may result from negligent acts, and capital resources to physical perils such as fire, theft, windstorm, and vandalism, to name but a few.
A hazard is the cause of a peril. e.g. an earthquake causes damage and destruction.

          For latest updates scroll to end of post

Here is a Herald feature by Peter Huck on this subject, particularly the changing climate, both environmentally and fiscally, threatening the capacity of insurance to cope.
June 27 2011 in New Zealand we hear that Civic Assurance, which insures local government organisations, will not renew cover for property in respect of the Christchurch and Waimakariri Councils. Their policies thus end on June 30 2011 and they will have to shop elsewhere. Furthermore, the same change of policy will be applied by Civic to other councils in NZ. They will all have to shop around and pay a higher price for cover. Civic is in fact owned by local councils, but it cannot get re-insurers to back it. Councils will have to go cap in hand to central government to sort out this further mess.
NZ now faces local council insurance premiums increasing up to 400% and the flow on effects from Christchurch & Waimakariri being uninsured place public amenities in jeopardy. Infrastructure that is below ground -water, sewerage and possibly power are most likely to be excluded from cover.
The effect is that policies on this civic level have been radically rewritten and the same changes will occur with policies for individual property owners. 


This news only adds to the maelstrom of woes facing Canterbury. When the failure level extends from the personal, to possessions, to local infrastructure, to lifestyle, to the face of a city, to the functioning of local government, the alarm bells are on full volume.
Like a stress toy, people are being squeezed from both ends.

Understanding insurance is a key to knowing why this system is being severely challenged. There are almost endless types of insurance (Any risk that can be quantified can potentially be insured - WIKIPEDIA) but the one most problematic at the moment would be the various examples covered by the term property

In terms of property insurance, basically a resource is assessed in terms of its potential to fail, be lost, damaged or destroyed.

Astro-Analysis Section:

In astrology Taurus  covers material objects in general, personal possessions.
Pluto is resonant with shared resources - community or held in partnership
Saturn shares the same energy as with fear/risk aversion, the concept of insurance, loss, failure, wrecks, ruins.
Uranus features in unexpected events, sudden changes, earthquakes, electrical/electronic systems


In June 2011 Pluto's zodiac position is moving back from 7 to 6 degrees Capricorn
                    Uranus ranges from 4 to 4.5 degrees of Aries
                    Saturn ranges from 10.5 to 10.7 degrees of Libra

The 3 zodiac signs are seasonal markers (solstice and equinox) and as such Aries is opposite Libra, with Capricorn at end of year. This seasonal connection gives these signs (and their 4th member, Cancer,)  powerful elemental energies.

The positions in June show that Pluto has been sitting at the mathematical middle point of the positions of Uranus and Saturn. ( quick maths show that 7 is the midpoint of 4 and 10 degree positions. This is very significant. Pluto and its corresponding issues - those relevant here, noted earlier, is in a stressing right angle or 90 degree position in respect of the merging energies of Uranus and Saturn.

Look at the keywords outlined earlier for these 3 planetary positions and  put these into a context of stress, disharmony conflict, generated by the 90 degree angle of Pluto and the current situation in Christchurch is a very clear match, showing that this global pattern has a particular relevance to the geographic location of Canterbury-Christchurch. Be assured that other places, not necessarily reported on our limited news services, will be facing these same issues now and into the future, as a consequence of extreme weather or natural events.


The Future
So what happens once the June 2011 pattern ends? Little if any respite, since similar themes are perpetuated by new patterns over the next 5 years.

 We have already turned the corner into a most turbulent period, on multiple levels. 2011 in particular has allowed people to work out that something particularly powerful is occurring in the world involving both massive political upheaval and new structures put in place. But that is not all: Earth itself in undergoing restructuring. But neither of these matters will resolve quickly
The structure of many known things will alter: governments, systems, organizations. Property and resources are central to these changes,  meaning our relationship to these things is shifting, marked by reduced resources. Changing attitudes to things Conflict in 2013, 2014 over resources.  Drought will feature before and including 2016 in vulnerable parts of the globe.

Many believe a more significant global economic meltdown is waiting in the wings. 


In the simplest of terms, insurance as we know it, may be a waste of money since the insurers may be unable to cover against increasing risk and in the face of further bankrupting events, few if any may be paid out. Higher premiums will also lead to high rates of uninsured property. The tide has turned. In the view ahead, having insurance could be more risky than not having it.


Consider some options that are far simpler and far less materialistically embedded if you want to bear the coming years with far less angst.



Update July 7

 An interesting blog post from Brent Walker, an Australian member of the financial risk aka insurance industry, noting the link between solar minimum periods ( which we are in now) and increased seismic, volcanic events. Lots of data provided.

Scientific paper online re this topic

Update Sept 25 2011
Reinsurers may wait until 2014 at the earliest to take on further risk in Christchurch

Also refer to Christchurch Shakes Again and Again for seismic updates & commentary.

2012

January 5 2012

Read the global stats re insurance claims in 2011 -this article adds to the text of this post

Excerpt from Chch Press:

Natural disasters, led by catastrophic earthquakes in Japan and New Zealand, cost a record US$380 billion (NZ$483b) last year, more than double the figure for 2010 and triple the average for the past decade, insurance experts have reported.

April 2012

 Insurance woes continue in Christchurch following 4 major phases of quake events, commencing Sept 2010 - report

2013
March 19
Insurance matters are still unresolved on a large scalwe in Christchurch, but this is not just a local problem
Refer to
Sarah Miles book:
The Christchurch Fiasco : the Insurance Aftershock and its Implications for New Zealand and BeyondJay Feinman's book Delay Deny Defend on insurance issues for policy holders



                   

The July 2011 Solar Eclipse in Cancer

             Please read all updates at the end as most posts get further links or information added after posting

This is a partial eclipse occuring 1st of July 2011 - chart link

To go back in time, we had solar eclipses around this point in the following years in recent decades: 2000, 1992, 1973 -so some of the themes you may recall in your personal life or can research historically around mid to late year are likely to arise again in 2011.

On each occasion the sun and moon are in a similar position. In 2011 it is 9 degrees 12 minutes of Cancer, but otherwise, the remaining planetary positions interacting with the eclipse are unlikely to be replicated.

The central themes around Cancer stem from the parenting impulse to guide, nurture and protect. Primarily this is the female mothering principle, so women, mothers and their parenting behaviours are all involved.
A primary nurturing task is to find shelter for your young, so dwellings of all kinds are a Cancer concept. ( Capricorn is the male parenting principle)

The standout issue in the 2011 chart is the position of Saturn in Libra, being at right angles, a 90 degree stress to the sun and moon, literally obstructing, blocking, stressing, delaying and causing all manner of potential difficulties around any or many of the issues listed in the paragraph above.
In addition, since this is not a full and final list, it can be said that literally the planet Saturn is having an interfering effect on the earth's Moon and our solar system star, the Sun. ( Spaceweather.com reports: QUIET SUN: June is going to end on a quiet note. Solar activity is very low with only a few small scattered sunspots posing no threat for strong flares. 
All energies are complex and hold the potential for multiple expressions, based on the themes that cluster around, or resonate with that energy. For example you could probably compose a page full of keywords for the energies that correspond with Saturn. Here is a sample of a few Saturn keywords.

On a personal level, for everyone, the area of the body connected to the sign Cancer is the stomach, our primary digestive system as well as the breasts. ( for much more indepth refer to Eileen Nauman re Medical Astrology) Saturn is likely to create issues in these bodily areas for those with vulnerability there. Astrological Cancer relates to the word for Crab in Latin. Why this same word is used for the disease cancer is interesting - especially as the zodiac Cancer and its opposite sign Capricorn relate to  many of the key areas where the disease is found.

Christchurch NZ people have already begun to experience as of the Winter Solstice ingress into Cancer, further issues about their homes after a government decision to buy up around 5,000 quake damaged properties, ruined in one or more of the major quakes which began Sept 4 2010.
With several major planets in the Cardinal signs ( the seasonal marker signs of Aries, Libra, Cancer Capricorn) we are in a long-term phase of challenging issues related to all 4 of these signs, but for the moment Cancer is particularly under the spotlight aggravated by the changes to Capricorn structures, both of the physical earth and man-made)

For further detail relating to longer term implications please refer to recent blog on problems related to Saturn, which has an impact on all 3 mid-year eclipses in 2011.
For some the issues will be emotional - sadness, grief, sense of loss and separation. Others will feel frustration, being blocked, trapped or delayed by the "system" or process. All these issues relate to Saturn, bringing about through challenging circumstances, a re-structuring of people's lives, particularly their relationships and connections to others as well as their relationship to money, possessions and material things. What is true, real and important is likely to emerge after what seems like unsurmountable difficulty.

An eclipse is not a momentary event. It builds before exactitude and spreads long afterwards till the next cycle, some 6 months later, just as a wave crashing on a shore and spreading up the beach has built long before the wave forms its arching peak.

Update:

Also of interest are the 2 big issues related to women which have arisen in NZ in the past week: women's productivity criticised and said to relate to menstrual & mothering issues leading to time off work. These keywords are all related to the lunar energies of Cancer. Secondly, the "Slutwalk" movement aims to defend women's right to dress according to personal choice, in the face of criticism that their appearance provokes rape. This is another female issue where gender related behaviour is taken to be a deficit, a problem for the (male preferential) system or the prevailing (male dominated) power base. Expect more to come along these sorts of themes.

Update June 28

With insurance and re-insurance in the news in NZ re Christchurch quake, this issue is very connected to the Cancer and Saturn energies of this eclipse. With Saturn in Libra, financial protection comes to the fore. Read my recent post on Insurance issues.
Libra also is concerned with partnerships, relationships, marriage and Saturn's influence brings responsibilities and commitments to the fore. This will  bring strain to those not ready for the burdens and will solidify those who are ready. Both men and women will be subject to this influence

Update June 29

Equal pay - in terms of gender equality -surprise, surprise - is back on the agenda in NZ

In addition there was a Global Women conference in Auckland on June 28 and news of doctors in India practicing gender re-assignment on girls

Update 30 June

Here's a useful interpretation on this eclipse cycle written by Bernadette Brady. It will appeal to those studying eclipses, as well as those wanting some analysis in simple terms.

Updates July 2

Pay equity for women is set to be a big issue in NZ following on from the Alasdair Thompson story. ( NZ Herald front page story today)

Astrological analysis is based on interpretation of patterns. This then amounts to rather subjective opinions regarding the important features and how they synthesise into observable effects. Each interpretor picks up things in their own way based on their own prior experience and the aspects of life eg personal, political, economic, environmental, etc, which interest them the most, so it pays to read a range of analyses to see who is picking up on things in the way you experience them. Here are more examples re events in July,
 the Cancer eclipse and the New Moon Report

If you prefer video analysis of the mid-year eclipse events watch these recent interpretations compiled in today's post.

Update July 4 

See how Richard Nolle sums up the July 1 eclipse

TVNZ showed on its Sunday programme July 3, two sides of suffering experienced by youth in our current world - the growing practice of carrying and using knives, for "self protection" and in low level altercations, leading in some instances to serious and fatal injury. This is not just a NZ problem. The other story showed emotionally damaged youths from violent, abusive or deprived family situations, where love and hugs were virtually unknown.
Both examples highlight the breakdown of the family unit which must be restored if we are to avoid a massive social breakdown involving increasing numbers of angry, violent youths, fulled by drugs and alcohol. The problem is already beyond bad in places in NZ, Australia, UK. We are witnessing the cumulative effects of 2 generations of unloved, unparented children, left to fend for themselves while parents do their own thing. Driven by materialistic desires, people have overlooked what matters most: the simple act of being a proper parent. These issues are Cancer-Capricorn and are highlighted not only by the July eclipse, but also by other planetary influence over the longer term ahead. We have to go back to basics to sort out our world and the home environment is one of those bottom lines.

Some people may wonder whether all the predicted global effects affect everyone equally and the answer is clearly NO.
Each person has their own vibrational imprint -we call it your birth chart or horoscope, meaning the template of the universal energy as it was, at the time and location of your birth. The co-ordinates in time and place are like a marker point on a grid and through astrology we can determine what your resonance patterns are ( how energy expresses through you, what it's characteristics are - your personality, preferences, behaviours, even your appearance and much more)
So when an energy pattern exists in the universe it will correspond most strongly with the people, places, things, animals which share the same or very similar characteristics - so it is a vibrational matching. Musicians will understand the tuning fork analogy.

So yes even your own country, city, suburb and personal dwelling have a vibrational resonance and in mass events like the Christchurch earthquakes ALL people in the location share a degree of shared vibrational similarity with the actual quake events. Those who live their but had miraculous good fortune in terms of limited impact, damage, upheaval or loss, would have an offsetting energy that significantly mitigates or over-rides the impact of the destructive force.

A recent tragic example in Auckland involved a woman, mother of a family (Cancer) tragically killed by rock-fall (Saturn). This event on July 2 clearly reflects the potentials in the July eclipse chart. The victim's energy clearly resonated powerfully with the difficult eclipse.

The discovery of a premature newborn in a rural stream, south Auckland involves problematic (Saturn) mother-child (Moon/Cancer) issues.

To further understand the workings of Saturn, both positive and negative as well as more neutrally see this keywords document

The Winter Solstice Chart 2011: Christchurch NZ

This link will take you to the full view chart for the time the Sun reaches the major winter marker in 2011, specifically for Christchurch New Zealand, the winter solstice when the sun is at its furtherest north position in relationship to the earth and appears to stand still before resuming its journey south, over the equator in September to reach its maximum south position in December, our summer solstice in southern lands.

Small view:

Christchurch Solstice Chart Weds June 22 2011

Homes, possessions, money and all earthly material things are highly emphasised for this Christchurch specific chart.

Taurus - money, possessions, and literally the earth we walk on, security -  is the rising sign at the AC point.

The Sun and Mercury reinforce this by being in the sector related to Taurus -the second house on the chart wheel.

The Sun and Mercury are in the sign most connected to homes and families - Cancer

The Moon which is the planetary force related to Cancer, is in the significant, most elevated position, exactly at the MC point. The sign placement in Pisces reflects a dissolving, dematerializing influence since Pisces relates to water and more spiritual perspectives - in contrast to the materialistic perspective of Taurus.

So firstly the areas of focus are identified as well as the contradictory forces - material/non-material, mundane/spiritual, holding on/letting go. 

As in a prior post on the influence of Saturn, this chart perpetuates the indications of difficulties, challenges, separation, loss, endings of connections and relationships which are shown in the eclipse charts for midyear 2011.

In this chart which lays out the road ahead for several months, Saturn is shown to be in exact aspect to the Taurus AC point. It is in exact aspect to Mercury - the indicator of thoughts, discussion, ideas and information related to (here in Cancer) homes and families.  Serious, difficult, frustrating, negative even depressing themes are on the agenda. Saturn too is in exact aspect to the Moon-MC point - again homes families emphasised in respect of difficulties, worries and stresses facing people.

In addition, Saturn and Mercury join Pluto and Uranus in the year's major pattern indicating massive upheaval and change. In all four signs related to the seasonal markers this is called a Cardinal Square and as such indicates more significant environmental disturbance to come.

People will manifest the sort of implosions and explosions, subsidences and collapses seen on the eternal physical level of street and landscapes as the pending news from government sinks in.

(As the timing for the government release of information - believed to be incomplete still by June 23 - is in the energy field of this solstice pattern, the information released related to Christchurch will reflect the sobering themes outlined here.)

This is a brief analysis but the standout points are, to borrow a phrase "blindingly obvious" not only in the chart's depiction of energy interactions, but also that the government announcement by Key and Brownlee, on June 23 will reflect the heart-breaking news this chart indicates. It is unlikely that the full picture is already known due to the likelihood of more quake-induced damage unfolding this year. ( Brownlee got stuck in a lift today - a symbolic rendering of one of the myriad Saturn-Mercury effects: transport malfunction, a block in the flow of energy)

The forces this year are particularly strong in respect of challenging people's attachments to their physical reality. This will clearly stretch many to the maximum because of the threat to personal, home and family security. Other more adaptable people will be capable of letting go, valuing their peace of mind and quality of life in preference to the stuff they own. These events push people to work out their true values and that could lead them to a simpler existence based on owning less. Ultimately that position reflects the collective shift we are facing globally re financial meltdowns, forcing re-adjustments in people's materialistic ambitions. The new cycle has begun.

Update June 24 2011

Further Reading:

Also read recent post Problems: Saturn factor to understand the implications of the larger pattern in charge globally from mid-year to late 2011.

Any of the charts referred to that are created for Christchurch also contain significant elements that apply globally because we are effectively all in this together: we are all connected.

Reading the news reports out of Christchurch following the decision released re colour-coded suburbs, the turmoil continues for people, reflecting the over-riding influence of Saturn energies whose keywords are expressed by people who feel "trapped", "sad", "insecure", facing an uncertain future, dislocated from their familiar and well-loved environments. 

Update June 25

The text has been edited to place major points in bold font, to assist casual readers with little background in astrological analysis.

The Nature of Reality in a Transforming World

...there is a significant probability that you are living in computer simulation. I mean this literally: if the simulation hypothesis is true, you exist in a virtual reality simulated in a computer built by some advanced civilization

Prof Nick Bostrom in response to the 1999 movie The Matrix

Oxford University Professor of Philosophy, Nick Bostrom wrote an academic paper several years ago titled       The Simulation Argument: Why the Probability that You Are Living in a Matrix is Quite High

These are not the thoughts of a wacky computer gamer, but those of an academic philosopher - and Bostrom is not the only deep thinker to propose wildly alternate visions of reality. Buddhist philosophy has propositions which match the nonsensical world of quantum mechanics and Lewis Carroll, the mathematically minded writer, constructed a Wonderland which people find entertaining, even if they fail to get the quantum reality references.

Anyway, back to the present - and you'd be forgiven if you started to wonder how to explain the world under present conditions. It's as if the paradigm has changed on many levels, because even though there is much, if not most things, happening in the world that has precedent, the increasing use of the descriptor unprecedented is also noted. So the metaphor of a computer programme, or even the serious consideration of it, as Prof Bostrom has done, as a means of comprehending reality, is highly intriguing.

Carl Jung had an interesting take on explaining seemingly unconnected events, with the notion of synchronicity

It was a principle that Jung felt gave conclusive evidence for his concepts of archetypes and the collective unconscious, in that it was descriptive of a governing dynamic that underlies the whole of human experience and history—social, emotional, psychological, and spiritual. source Wikipedia

What Jung may have omitted in this definition is the inclusion of the natural world and all sentient beings -animal, vegetable, mineral - as being part of the collective unconscious. Perhaps that broadened notion was too radical in the 1920's.

When you get seemingly richochet events which occur in a particular time frame, the temptation exists to wonder about underlying links.

Iceland Volcano Ash 2010 and 2011. Chile volcano ash 2011 -repeats in June 2011. Eritrea volcano ash 2011

February 22, 2011 Christchurch Quake attended by Japanese Recovery Teams followed by Japan Quake & Tsunami on March 11 2011

The repetitive events in Christchurch which some call Groundhog Day have seen major quake events on 3 days which resolve to the number 4: Sept 4, Feb 22, June 13. People now have faced three times the task of clearing deep piles of grey silt from their homes and gardens, caused by soil liquefaction. It's like a buggy programme which keeps defaulting to a particularly offensive setting.

The collective consciousness is equally capable of creating situations that resemble faulty software applications or computer systems which keep crashing  so whether it is Us on earth or Them out there, things are in transition, in a very insistent manner.

Update July 4 2011

This post also links to the recently posted item about the holographic mind
Update August 2 2011

Read also Rohaan Solare's article online

Mathematics Link Christchurch Quake Sequence

Using mathematical tables of planetary positions

 it is possible to find numerous intriguing links

 between the three major dates that have unfolded

 in the ongoing earthquake sequence in Christchurch New Zealand.

All three events have a direct link

 to the total lunar eclipse on December 21 2010

For 2012 updates scroll to the end of this post

Why would an event in December activate events months before or after? Research indicates that powerful events have a field of influence that builds beforehand and extends afterwards and this can be shown mathematically by points in time.

                                                    CLICK ON ALL GRAPHICS TO ENLARGE

Dec 2010 eclipse chart for locality of Christchurch region -full view

This eclipse chart  shows the Moon hard left opposite the Sun's circular glyph, both at right angles to the highest placed Uranus and Jupiter. The red and blue lines of connected energy make this an exceptionally potent representation of energetic forces.

For the purposes of this proposition the mathematics of degrees and minutes of arc ( the full circle of 360 divided into 12 sectors gives each at 30 degrees width) 

The Sun at 29.21 was in full moon opposition to the Moon at 29.21 in two signs Sagittarius-Gemini of the mutable group - (Sagittarius, Gemini, Pisces, Virgo) 

Jupiter at 25.16 and Uranus at 26.46, Mercury at 26.16
Collectively a big energy mix ranging between 25.16-29.21 in mutable signs
29 degrees mutable is in conjunction ( a one degree variation) with 0 degrees cardinal (Cancer, Capricorn, Libra, Aries)
The eclipse degree 29.21 is the strongest, in this close grouping in the eclipse chart.
(other factors empower this chart but to keep on focus they will be left for now)

Event One:
September 4 2010, 4.35 am local time Christchurch New Zealand

Jupiter and Uranus shared the midpoint degree position of 29.59 Pisces

Event Two
February 22 2011 , 12.51 pm local time Christchurch NZ
Sun and Moon shared a midpoint degree of 28.34
Moon and Mercury shared a midpoint degree of 27.11 

The ASC-MC midpoint degree is 29.40  Pisces

Uranus 29.00 Pisces = exact on the midpoint position

Uranus sits at 90 degrees to the Nodes at 0 Cardinal

Event Three

June 13 2011, 2.20 pm local time Christchurch NZ

Sun and Pluto share a midpoint degree of 29.10 Pisces

Mercury and Pluto share a midpoint degree of 29.14 Pisces

The recurrence of factors at 29 Pisces being the stress-generating 90 degree position in reference to the December 2010 eclipse degree of 29 Sagittarius is clear.

In addition all 3 Christchurch seismic events have occurred in with sun and mercury in mutable positions, Sept = Virgo, Feb=Pisces, June=Gemini.


September 2010 saw the early combining of  the power group Pluto-Uranus-Saturn-Jupiter in tight alignment in late mutable to early cardinal positions. This group of 4 and later 3, is highly significant in the ramped up global natural disasters and political upheavals. In June 2011, Pluto occupies the midpoint of Saturn and Uranus, so no surprise that a lot is being activated.

The question now is whether events in this cycle are over for Christchurch

June 2011 sees the beginning of a new eclipse cycle, with 3 events from June 1-July 2.

The new full moon lunar eclipse degree is 24.23 mutable  (Sagittarius) A new chart will have the momentum. More on that once a scan of the chart has occurred.

How about the Japan Tsunami & mega-quake on March 11 2011?

Since this event occurred within the time frame this too must show relevant indicators.

There are 7 factors evident that are tightly linked to the eclipse degree of 29 Mutable

The most significant is the mid-point of Mars and Saturn (29.12 SAG) right on the December eclipse sun, plus Uranus is at 29.56 Pisces

Other midpoints at 25.07, 26.27, 26.33 Pisces.

One midpoint at 0 Aries

ASC-MC midpoint of 27.22 Gemini

The Sun and Moon were both in mutable signs ( Pisces, Gemini )

As with the other events, many more factors in the chart depiction can be identified as contributing to the events. 

The mathematical links identified serve as triggers for the event in time.

Chart References:

September 4 chart for Christchurch

February 22 2011 chart for Christchurch Mag 6.3

chart for June 13 M6.3 Christchurch

The grid for the Japan Quake Tsunami March 11 2011

The grid shows angular links down the left diagonal section and midpoint positions in the right section.
See expanded view

2012

A new and powerful sequence began on December 23 2011 and has been persistent into January 2012

On December 23 at 1.58pm a M5.85 bearing 9 kilotonnes of energy released into Pegasus Bay, 5.8kms east off New Brighton and 13.8 kms east of Cathedral Square central Christchurch. Since that event a multitude of aftershocks have hammered the Bay - data

Following the thesis of the involvement of mutable signs in late degrees to 0 degrees cardinal
Mutable being:  Sagittarius, Gemini, Pisces, Virgo
Cardinal being: Aries Libra Caner Capricorn

The following matches are found in the data for the 1.58pm event
Positions
Sun       0 Capricorn
Uranus 0 Aries

Midpoints
Mars-AC 27 Gemini
Saturn-Neptune 28 Sagittarius
Pluto-Node 25 Sagittarius
Node-MC 26 Sagittarius
Jupiter-Neptune 29 Pisces
Saturn-Chiron 29 Sagittarius
Jupiter-Chiron 0 Aries

Supporting positions - linked by degree
Saturn 27 Libra
Neptune 28 Aquarius

Now view the chart and data grid to see some interesting additional points

The standout feature on the chart wheel for 1.58pm Dec 23 is Pluto in Capricorn in tight proximity conjunct the MC point ( most elevated = significant & is a strong activation point)

Then note that the AC = acendant or "birth moment" of the event is in Aries - 6 degrees in tight stress position = square to Pluto and the MC.

Overall a tightly linked pattern, evidenced by aspect lines drawn.

All the above factors point to the significant transformational power of this sequence activator.
Scientists say they are surprised by the intensity. An astrologer looking at this knows that this birth chart is packing kilotonnes worth of energy and from this some consideration may be given to the next major triggering by factors activating the cardinal positions 6-7-8 degrees  as we may be witnessing a transition into that energy predominating over the late mutables as triggers. However if any upcoming date combines the two groups, be prepared.

Knowing that Uranus and Pluto will meet at 8 degrees during May-June-July-August 2012, it is clear that June is potentially the month when the next reactivation will be strongest in the time frame from June 18, building to the New Moon at 29 Gemini on June 20 and extending as Mars moves to late Virgo through to the end of June and into July 1-4. This scenario is significantly aggravated by  Sun-Uranus-Pluto all aligned on June 30
Sun 8.37 Cancer
Uranus 8.28 Aries
Pluto 8.15 Capricorn
The Moon and Saturn both at 23 degrees on that day also bring timing and manifesting energies to this power-packed trio while Mars holds the 28 degree mutable position in Virgo.

If the December 23 event is to have a second more brutal phase, this time frame has the astrological hallmarks that resonate with that initiating event.
Geoscientists are talking about 6 monthly events so on this occasion two very different perspectives may for once be in tune.

Update June 17 2012

This chart for June 20, 10.30 pm shows a strongly activated chart for Christchurch - at the same same as the pattern prevails down the same longditude band including locations such as Auckland and Pacific Islands including Samoa, Fiji, Tonga.
On June 20 after the 28.43 Gemini New Moon has passed in NZ at 3am the chart for 10.30pm that day above contains these points of relevance in late Mutable to zero Cardinal: [degrees+minutes]
Saturn-ASC 29.31
Mercury-Jupiter - 27.12
Mercury-Node - 28.43
Mercury-MC - 26.52
Mercury-Venus - 0.28
Mars-Uranus - 0.51

Other associated factors include Mars linked to Jupiter, Node & MC in supportive late cardinal degrees .
The sun is at 29 Gemini

Aside from this continued mathematical link, this time frame of late June with the strong emphasis on  8 degrees cardinal (Pluto-Uranus in exact 90 degree angle) is reinforced at 10.30pm on June 20 by the Moon at 8 cardinal along with Mars-Saturn and Mars-Pluto.
All combined, this is a destructive picture which has the potential to impact Christchurch, along with other locations as stated.
[update: June 23 2012 saw two quakes of M4.0 - Waimairi Beach and Darfield -source ]

2013 update
The period June-July-August 2013 is worth watching for enhanced seismicity in Christchurch
June 19 sees a total eclipse of Jupiter by the Sun when both occupy 28 Gemini
Extreme turbulencce in atmospherics and extra gravitational strain in the period noted is capable of rupturing sensitive areas of the global tectonic network.
A Supermoon in June 2013 is the second and strongest of 2013, followed by a 3rd in July
See June  July and August reports

          

          

Christchurch Shakes Again and Again

Since September 4 2010 

seismic activity in the Christchurch region, New Zealand

has remained well beyond background levels.

latest entries precede original post

2018
January
The earthquake spread in January 2018 includes recent reactivations in the Christchurch region -as well as in the larger subduction zone down the eastern diagonal flank of both islands - following the energy shift provided by the Jan 2 perigee closest orbiting moon for the year.
January 2018 is a watch and see period due not only to the perigee moon but the energised mid January New Moon [17th] and the following first eclipses of 2018 [Feb 1 and Feb 16 in NZ which all sustain themes set in place from 2017 year's end Dec 31/Jan1 2018 which indicate higher than usual risk of structural collapse -as indicated in this post for the January forecast
Counting back from Jan 20 there have been at least 8 quakes over M3 [and considerably more M2+] in the larger Canterbury region

Geonet data - highlighting added

2017 
October
Since November 2016 with the M7.8 Kaikoura quake, attention shifts to the larger region involved in the subduction of the Pacific plate under the Australian plate, placing the eastern flank of the North Island down to Cook Strait as the anticipated next high risk zone

GNS SCIENCE

September
A M7.1 quake in Mexico has occurred with strong energetic similarities to the February 22 2011 quake
This very similar energy to Feb 2011 has found expression on another continent.

2016 
February 29 severe shaking from a M4.3, 5kms deep centrally located near Cashmere has further revisited the horrors of 5 years ago, though no initial reports of damage or injury.

Quakemap energy chart showing a significant late Feb spike

Feb 14 M5.7 offshore from New Brighton reignites a higher level of seismic unrest.
The likelihood of a M5.0-5.9 quake was 49%, before today's quake - and 5.7 % for a M 6.0-6.9 quake. 

There was less than a 1% likelihood of an earthquake larger than magnitude 7 according to Geonet

The last 100 quakes in the moderate to severe range -via Geonet extensively populate the plate boundary through the main islands of New Zealand

 This data includes recent other large events: a Jan 28 2016 M4.1 south of Christchurch and a M5.7 at St Arnaud, south of Nelson on Feb 9 2016

April 2015 
Two M3.8 quakes within the period April 5-7
The first in the hills above Lyttelton, the second above Governor's Bay

April 7

Widespread activity continues, generally at low levels but concentrations around Lyttelton Harbour and south of Rolleston are evident

 data & graphics from Christchurch Quake Map

2014
No significant quake resurgence in 2014 but from mid December, some enhanced [though not significantly damaging] seismicity up to M4.5

       refer to Geonet

April 13

Enhanced global seismicity is noted in the building phase of the full moon lunar eclipse [exact on Tues 15th -and with extra complexities -Read 2014 extreme events forecast ]

Christchurch experienced a M4.2 -5kms deep at 8.36am near the Port Hills

March 20 saw a M4.04 west in the Greendale fault zone.

M4.74 is presently the pass mark to get into the top 100 for the region

April so far continues the pattern of intermittent events M4+ in a more active recent period but the month has further intense potentials.

This day also saw a major quake in the Solomons Region M7.6 and Christchurch does seem to have echo events when other distant big events occur.

The first quarter of 2014 has passed with no major destructive events though events over M4 remain very intermittent.
This graphic from Quakelive shows the pattern of declining intensity.

Because of plate boundary stress from enhanced activity, the Kapiti region is the subject of more seismic concern at present - news report  geology report

December 2013
A pattern of very minimal activity interspersed with random higher events is continuing
A flurry occurred across the region on Dec 19 in the period 12.44am-1.15 am to a maximum of M3.9 - though this was a seafloor event off Parklands & not newsworthy it seems.

November 2013
A pattern of very minimal activity interspersed with random higher events is continuing

November 18 M4.6

Monday 18 Nov 11.36pm M4.6 in suburban Christchurch, 137 tonnes, being the largest event in the region since October 1st 2013 M4.7 -  a seafloor event off New Brighton
report

October has ended with a bang after an unusual lull period lasting some 20 days
M4.2 at the eastern end zone of the Greendale Fault at 4.21 am followed by a nearby M3.3
Then at 9.45 am a M3.8 50kms n/e of Mt Cook - in range of the Alpine Fault

This activity comes in the wake of extensive high activity on the sun during October particularly in the last week - multiple M and X level flares - high level magnetic discharges which have been shown to precede noticeable seismic responses on earth.
October has begun the first week with more  intense seismicity in Canterbury e.g. Oct 1st M4.6 seafloor off New Brighton, and 2 shallow events at M3.3 on subsequent days one east one west.
Generally there have been lower magnitude sporadic events in recent months with the odd one over M4

Also read October 2013 astro-analysis for relevant background material to this larger than usual lately event

August 25 2013
Geonet statistics over the past year reveal that the larger Canterbury region and the South Island in general are the most seismically active over the period, but the Wellington and Taranaki regions now have prominence in the North Island statistics. 
While Christchurch itself has been seismically quieter, activity in the larger region has implications for the city
Geonet stats.

July 29 2013
Christchurch has today felt the effects of a M4.7 south of Hanmer Springs.
The Seddon Sequences are capable of stressing the Alpine Fault and recent activity in Canterbury has tended to be more north and west
for more on the Alpine Fault issues - video of recent research



July 22 2013
Data has been removed from Quakemap related to the graphic below suggesting false readings.
Peak ground acceleration in the newly named Seddon Sequences measured in respect of gravity was only 10% of the strength of shaking experienced in the Feb 22 Chch quake. [20%G vs 2G]
No events over M4 of late in the Canterbury region
July 21 2013
Cook Strait activity has increased since July 19 [M5.7]with 2 larger events on this day - M5.8, M6.5
Christchurch has not been unconnected to this significant seismic activity.

quaklive data

This snapshot of July 21 shows a M5.2 followed by a M4.3 then M3.7 - forming a triangle from Pegasus Bay to Lowry Hills Range then down to Okuku. Quakelive & Quakemap show this activity -but Geonet appears overloaded & focussing on the main show. This significant activity has arisen in the context of elevated solar-lunar gravitational forces during May-June-July peaking around dates of the Supermoons and likely accumulating with expected further activity in August - see August report

July 19 2013
Quakes approaching M4 have been occuring in the larger Canterbury area in the past week -latest July 19 M3.94 , shallow 5kms deep inland hill country near Bealey at 12.13pm.
This follows and most likely a resonant response to the most significant recent quake in NZ earlier, same day, further north: M5.7, 16kms deep, seafloor east of Seddon at 9.06 am.
Multiple aftershocks followed in that location, the highest being M4.5, then 3 between M3.3 - M3.5

Red slash to the right shows the M5.7 just emerging on the quake drums

July 17 2013
A resumption of stronger quake activity in the period mid June-Mid-July after a lull mid-May to mid-June -see Quakelive

June 18 2013
Important insights and writings of Fiona Farrell on the Christchurch aftermath, from Radio NZ interview, June 16 



    This snapshot of activity since 2007 gives some insight into the extended strength of activity

Quakelive graphic showing 50kms radius of Chch central

May 2013

A pattern of intermittent events over M3.0 and up to M4.16 - along with sporadic lower magnitude aftershocks continues across the region

April 2013

Alpine Fault study sees Canterbury at risk of M7.0 effects - report

The most recent 25 events March 27-April 9 -from M1.9 to M3.0

Coloured dots show variable depths. Though intensity & frequency have declined, recent activity is diverse across the region -north-south-east-west as shown on this clickable graphic from Quakemap

March 2013:

Early in March, especially March 5-10 saw a slump in seismic activity in the target region but following a geomagnetic storm [ the magnetic disturbance on earth  after the sun discharged a full halo coronal mass ejection on March 15] St Patrick's weekend's magnetic sudden impulse would be expected to show some subsequent seismic disturbance in vulnerable regions - and it did on March 18 across Canterbury with a resumption of lower level events under M3 in diverse places west to east, so there may be more potential building for a larger aftershock.

February 2013:

In the fortnight from late January 2013 to early February an uptick in quake energy is evident in energy graphs supplied by Quakemap & Quakelive.

The following updates prior to 2013 were added to original post of June 13 2011

An end of 2012 summary and a dedicated 2013 post are now available on this site for more current information on Canterbury and Christchurch earthquakes and aftershocks. further reading includes Christchurch: why warnings have been given

September 21 2012

Recent event over M4 -Sept 21 M4.3

In recent months, the region had reached the longest period of inactivity/minimal seismicity since the Sept 4 2010 initial sequence. see July-August 2012 data

Seafloor events in Pegasus Bay continue to dominate

July 11 2012

July has seen two large but undamaging quakes a M4.88 at Greendale fault zone on July 6 and a M4.94 on July 10 at Tai Tapu. These fall within the 6 month warning period but July remains a vulnerable period re further significant unrest.

June 2 2012

M4.3,  9kms deep this morning, seafloor off Sumner, adding to recent M4+ activity in Pegasus Bay

May 31 2012

South Canterbury has produced a strong, 100 tonne,  M4.5 shake this morning [ with aftershocks], centred at Mayfield, west of Ashburton and described as "savage" in Temuka -report

May 28 2012

The Pegasus Bay seafloor is hogging the higher magnitude action currently with M3.9 & M4.4 both at 8kms deep this morning

See Quakemap [this specific data link will expire in days] .

The energy graph is climbing in a manner not seen in the prior 3 sequences 

May 25 2012

Diverse seismic activity on land and undersea, to a maximum of M5.2 - which was offshore of New Brighton. 13 quakes over M2.0 reported up to 6pm today.

Geonet graphic:  showing the most significant activity since January 2 2012, subsequent to the sequence starting on Dec 23 2011

Even the govt acknowledges that each quake of significant magnitude makes insurers more nervous & the rebuild more delayed. Insurers want a clear time frame of nil to little seismic activity in order to take a punt on Christchurch, because they are not in the business of paying out.

[update May 28: insurers claim it's business as usual - report

May 23 2012

In terms of the broader seismic condition of the South Island, recently published research has focussed on readings taken 100kms underground in a 50kms section relating to the Alpine fault - from Karangarua River in the southwest, to Whataroa. Two years of data were collected relating to unusual "creeping" or "rumbling", slow-slip, long-duration quakes  - not short, sharp discrete events as commonly known - but low intensity -around M1.0 level readings lasting minutes, weeks and years. This situation remains unclear as to whether it is a build-up or a release situation relating to the Alpine Fault -but researchers acknowledge that the region is overdue for a top magnitude quake - M8.0 or higher, as has happened there on 4 occasions in the past 900 years ( the last being around 300 years ago) GNS Science rates a high probability of a major Alpine quake in the coming 40years, which will have extensive human impact. - full report

May 21 2012

Press report on the flurry of quakes on May 20

Quakelive recorded 17 shakes in 24 hrs.

This quake sequence has retained considerable vigor, in terms of the bounce back capacity at this point of supposed decay. Don't rule out more surprises. 

May 20 2012

6.18pm update

M4.8 seafloor quake, 5.06pm, seafloor off Sumner, 8kms deep. No damage or outages reported

Earlier report:

The seismicly sensitive Rolleston tip of the Greendale fault has been active this morning, producing a M4.1 quake, 10 kms deep at 9.35 am.  The Rolleston area features significantly in the top 100 quakes of Canterbury since Sept 4 2010. The current Top 100 ranges from the initial M7.1 down to M4.63   -  data

Update & correction : The M4.8 has now entered the Top 100 at spot 71. 

Top 100 positions  13, 26, 40, 44, 53, 69, 76, 91, 93  (9 events) all occurred in January 2012, so today's quake means 10% of the Top 100 have occurred within the first 6 months of 2012

Noting that this coincides within the effective period of an annular solar eclipse [exact on May 21 NZ time].

May 16 2012

Superimposed graphics using original energy data from Quakelive   

Comparisons may show pattern similarities. Of the 6 comparisons, June and December 2011 appear to be following the most similar decay pattern.   (click any graphic to view in slideshow panel)

May 15 2012 

Pegasus Bay quake today at 1.27pm -  10kms deep, 6.6kms off New Brighton.

Being 52 tonnes, this is the largest since a swarm over M4 in January 2012

The M3.3 ( 1 tonne) which followed it, at 1.48pm was on land in the Landfill Ave-Waitikiri Golf Course area, north east of the city.

May 14 2012

Data provided by Quakelive covering 4 sequences of quakes since Sept 4 2010 in Canterbury-Christchurch gives the following comparisons of length of sequence, using basic analysis of their data where 30.5 days = one month.

Sept 4 :   5.6 months

Feb 22 :  3.6 months

June 13: 6.3 months

Dec 23 :  4.7 months to date

What happens over the next 8 weeks may indicate whether this last sequence shows any consistency with the prior 3. 

April 12 2012

Was a resonance response involved in the M4.6 quake in Pegasus Bay 12 noon today? ([the largest since Jan 27 2012 in the region]

                      The Christchurch event shown above on the Geonet quake drum  

This comes at noon on April 12 NZ time, about 16 hours after the waters off Sumatra Indonesia shook to repeated quake sequence initiated by a M8.6 in the Indian Ocean - which registered like this in New Zealand:

    The Sumatra M8.6 at around 8.30pm NZ time April 11 registers strongest on the northern quake drums.

Mexico has also had a significant quake equivalent to 10.55am NZ time on April 12

Read about the Supermoon, lunar declination and solar coronal hole effects in this period.

April 7 2012

Though Pegasus Bay has hogged the limelight in terms of persistent quake activity since Dec 23 2011, now some higher magnitude activity has resumed at the Greendale fault area around Rolleston ( April 6 M3.86, M4.19) The latter is the largest since  M4.29 March 18 2012, east of Lyttelton

March 26 2012

The desolation of many neighbourhoods in Christchurch (examples examples) reflects a global phenomenon of emptied and abandoned spaces -see image gallery 

March 24 2012

2 simultaneous Pegasus Bay quakes Christchurch M3.9-M4.1 at 5.09pm local timecontinue a spate of nationwide events over M4.0 during March, coinciding with intense solar activity and subsequent geomagnetic intensification. This is consistent with the proposal that earthquakes may be precipitated in response to elevated solar phases - read more

March 18 2012

Latest 25 as at 10.51 am: The pattern has resumed an "all over the place" scatter situation indicating widespread movement. Colour dots equal depths with hot colours being most shallow.

                                        Latest 25 - click to enlarge all graphics - source Quakemap

Two M4 events around 1am this morning Banks Peninsula area recorded on Quakelive  (other sites say just a single M4.3 or M4.4 event).

March 1 2012

A M4.3 quake at Rolleston, in the Greendale fault zone at 8.02 am today, preceded by small local movements in the Rolleston-Prebbleton-Lincoln triangle, while most activity continues in Pegasus Bay. Today's quake is second largest since Feb 8 and the 3 largest in that time frame have been in 3 different locations - west, Pegasus Bay and Banks Peninsula.

The vigorous, though declining,  pattern, activated since Dec 23 2011 is visible on this energy graph  

The Feb 22 anniversary was charitably quiet during memorial services.

Strongest and most frequent activity is now back in Pegasus Bay since Feb 19

                                                   CHCHQUAKEMAP LATEST 25     

                                                                                 

click images to enlarge

 

February 9 2012

The most recent pattern is away from Pegasus Bay and back to the mainland, with a quake swarm around the February 8 Full Moon

M4.2  and M4.3, M3.5 on Banks Peninsula (Feb8-9)

M4.2 Rolleston South (Feb 9)

M3.2 Bromley (Feb 9)

source: Quakelive

Latest 25 on Jan 22 CHCH QUAKEMAP 

click images to enlarge

January 27

Confirming the report noted on Jan 25, after some noise several hours earlier, on the Oxford quake drum, a M4.6 quake occurred in the Greendale zone near Rolleston this evening

The Geonet NZ quake drum shows the M4.6 emerging around 8.45 pm Jan 27

January 25

Scientists have released an opinion re renewed seismic activity at the Rolleston area of the Greendale fault zone

"stress still needs to be released" -full Press report

January 23

Left,right and centre. Significant seismic action in the west, centre and east continues

M4.5 in Pegasus Bay is the largest

Quakelive data

January 21 2012

This day was notable for a resumption of significant quake activity ( including two  M4+ ) at the Rolleston  end of the Geendale fault in west Canterbury

Meanwhile, the feisty forces operating in Pegasus Bay show a vigorous sequence extending since Dec 23.

January 10 2012

Updated entries on  Mathematics Link Christchurch Quakes shows how powerful the December 23 new Pegasus Bay sequence is. This new sequence may provide a big clue to the next significant phase.

Christchurch QuakeMap - latest 25 on Jan 3
CLICK TO ENLARGE ALL GRAPHICS

January 6 2012

The Quakelive energy chart shows how strong this sequence is compared to the June 2011 events.

Today M5 Pegasus Bay. Council plans to install a tsunami alert system and seismologist Kelvin Berryman does not rule out a quake induced tsunami; "around Canterbury there may well be an ongoing sequence over a period of a few decades". Kelvin Berryman tells meeting today -more from The Press

January 4 2012
Christchurch Quakemap graphic of top 25 quakes (2010-2012)  shows a range from M5.2-M7.1.    In 2012 this includes already a M5.5 in Pegasus Bay
Shakes in the M2-M3 range continue -almost exclusively in Pegasus Bay.
Seismic research from Switzerland uncovers information of value to those in Christchurch: liquefying soils amplify quakes 
January 3 2012

Christchurch Press is reporting :
"United States seismologist Kevin Furlong, a visiting professor at Canterbury University last year from Pennsylvania State University, said all the quakes since December 23 were similar, produced by slip on short, steeply dipping faults oriented roughly east-northeast/west-southwest".
"The magnitudes of the events are not particularly alarming, but what is of particular interest is that we are having something that is more swarm-like; that is, a multiple number of similar-sized events in a region, but not all on the same structure or fault."  - FULL REPORT

Residents of Christchurch are wanting answers since the eastern seafloor location raises concerns of swells or a tsunami being generated in the bay by a M7+ event. Scientists will meet this week under urgency to discuss what may have generated this recent swarm.

For alternative views on the risk potential go to Christchurch - why warnings have been given.

January 2 2012

A second swarm today, commencing 1.27 am, comprising over 3 kilotonnes of energy release, with magnitudes up to M5.48 so far by 8.14pm, all in Pegasus Bay, clustering off New Brighton but also further north and further east, broadening the geolocation of the events. This is a major sequence.

Data

Click to enlarge all graphics:      above Geonet NZ Jan 2 2012 screenshot

Dec 26 2011

This news cannot have been of any reassurance to Chch-Canterbury residents that they are safe from significant environmental threats.

Google Map from Quakelive
Shows Pegasus Bay with marked faults known prior to Dec 2011

The majority of quakes in this sequence have clustered around close offshore from New Brighton where the purple quake marker sits in this screenshot. The most northern one was at the latitude of Sefton and around centre longitudinally in this image. The most southern seafloor event has been north of Diamond Harbour. Significant land-based quakes have also occurred in the area marked as Diamond Harbour

Click to enlarge

In this latest sequence, targetting Pegasus Bay, data taken from the period from 1.58pm Dec 23 2011-11.44am Dec 26 2011 over 27 kilotonnes of energy has been released into Pegasus Bay. (kilotonne=1000 tonnes)

The initial event released 9 kilotonnes

Dec 23 2011

Major quakes today in Christchurch M5.8 at 1.58pm plus significant aftershocks

click to enlarge Geonet graphic

                                                                 Dec 23.2011    News Report
Initial data received on Dec 23 2011:

USGS data gives 3 quake events

QuakeMap now listing 5 events  over M4 this afternoon Dec 23

M5.9,M5.3 M4.6 were all seafloor events Pegasus Bay off New Brighton

at 3.18pmThe M6 was on the shore at South New Brighton

at 4.50pm The M5 was again in Pegasus Bay

Dec 16 2011

A downtrend has continued in quake frequency in Christchurch - see data page but the lives of many residents are still in limbo and the recovery of the region has been slow -read an end-of-year summary

November 20
Rev Mike Coleman, On Behalf of WeCan! (Wider Earthquake Communities Action Network)
and the many Cantabrians who are struggling to be heard, has published a plea for all New Zealanders to listen to the plight of those affected by the quakes.
Though the media have largely gone away, the suffering has not - here is an extract:
We would like to know what is really happening to the people of Canterbury. What you have been led to believe is not the reality for thousands of Cantabrians. There has been dishonesty in the way the
Government has portrayed their handling of people affected by the earthquakes. They are not telling the truth.

There were never 11,000 sections ready for more than 5,000 displaced households as stated by Mr
Brownlee on a street corner in June. There is no affordable land in Canterbury for many of these people.
Our Government, on your behalf, are forcing thousands from their land with no hope of being able to
purchase new land. This will become another dark reality in our history and we are the generation
allowing this to happen. FULL DOCUMENT

November 2011 
November 9 After days of nil activity, now in the full moon phase, quake activity has come alive again with the largest being M4.2 west of Coopers Creek. At least 29 tonnes of energy release in that region of west Canterbury. ENERGY GRAPH 

November 4 Seismologists have issued a higher probability 12 month forecast for Canterbury - as the region may be subjected to "an extended aftershock cluster". A clearer picture on that probability will reveal itself within the coming 6 months. New % forecasts are:

M5.5 - 5.9 -  up from 37 %. to 46% in the next year

M6.0 - 6.4 - up from  10% to 15 % in the next year
The change is due to favouring a more unusual pattern over the standard model

FULL ARTICLE

October 29 Seismic activity has been in the lower range since a significant eastern seafloor release of 2 kilotonnes  on October 9. Recent highest activity has not exceeded 9 tonnes - energy graph

October 22     Christchurch (Rolleston) resonates with a M3.8 in hours following M7.4 seafloor shake, Kermadecs region near Raoul Island this morning, 6.57 am, as happened with the last M7+ quake in the Kermadecs in July 2011

October 18, 2011 An ever changing dispersal pattern of aftershocks prevails - "left , right & centre".

The Royal Commission into the quakes is in process. The geoscientific evidence is that a quake in the region of M6.0 has a 14% chance of occurrence in the coming year.

Having said that that faults that ruptured have reduced stress for some time to come, Dr Pettinga says other unknown faults could rupture: "We don't have the complete picture" he says. 

This would not fill me with confidence.  If another fatally destructive quake does arise in the next year, the geoscientists always have an out clause with these statements. 

Again, locals need to consider how much risk they are prepared to live with and make life plans accordingly. No government agency will now take any level of accountability if a worst case scenario occurs again in the Canterbury region. This perception is reinforced by the withdrawal of insurers from a place of such high risk. 

October 9  2011 The significance of the October 9 quake is evident on this energy release graph 

The Geonet reading is below. Aftershock intensities continue to exceed average forecasting 
Activity is occurring left, right & centre in the region with the current emphasis strongly in the eastern hills-seafloor, after a period around the Greendale fault zone.

October  9, 8.34pm M5.5 = 2 kilotonnes (8th largest) 12kms deep, seafloor off Boulder Bay

October 8 2011sequence begun with M4.8 at 4.17pm        data from Geonet NZ

From 4.17pm a sequence of 8 shocks in the Pigeon Bay area of Banks Peninsula, the largest two being M4.8, M4.1 
Over 246 tonnes of energy released between 4.17-4.56pm in various sites in the hilly area of Pigeon Bay where elevation averages hundreds of metres.
Three of the quakes were under 5kms deep.

Animated events on QuakeMap

JUNE 2011

June 13 2011 Geonet quake drums seismograph

The theme of several of my prior postings is being evidenced again today with ( June 13 local time) multiple aftershocks, so far up to M6.0 (by 2.20pm) in Christchurch and smaller events in the larger district of Canterbury.

This morning a posting re the eclipse sequence we are in during June 1-July 1 - a triple sequence of 2 solar and one lunar which ramps up the geophysical stresses. Added to this the moon was as perigee -closest orbit on Sunday 12th and the next eclipse will be exact in NZ on Thursday 16th. These factors have an impact on the integrity of the earth, due to push-pull forces.


the following prior posts have focussed on Christchurch in particular, date back to March this year (2011)
Christchurch Quake Warnings
Recent quake data
Christchurch: why warnings have been given

Update 3.21 pm
The aftershocks total 13 with high magnitude 4.3, 4.4,4.9, 5.5 and M6.0 in the past 3 hours
Can anyone explain this synchronicity:
Trigger event on 4th ( Sept 2010)
Second event on 22nd ( February 2011)
Third event    on 13th ( June 2011)
A numerologist would point out that all reduce to the number 4 and the themes of these events are extremely reflective of the problematic energy of 4 due to its resonance with the principles of Saturn

Update June 14
Anyone interested in mathematics may appreciate the newer post on links between the 3 main Christchurch events and how they have a connection to the last lunar eclipse.

Also noting that :
Sept 4 event was 4 days before the New Moon & lunar perigee ( closest orbit to earth) for that month
Feb 22 event was 3 days after Full Moon and lunar perigee
June 13 event was one day after lunar perigee and 3 days before Full Moon lunar eclipse

33 aftershocks today have hammered east Christchurch as at 7.08pm. The total will increase before midnight. (this data will only have a duration of one week from posting) So far today the highest M4.7 at Buckley's Bay Reserve was also the deepest at 13kms.
Mostly eastern coastal hills and the seafloor are being boomed as if by an unseen underground artillery.
Yesterday, June 13 there were 51 quakes ( the largest were upgraded to M6.3 & M5.6) showing overwhelmingly a similar locational preference.

Geoscience has concluded that a NEW fault has occurred in the June 13 events
The Daily Release chart - of quake energy -  is also worth a look

Geonet's forecast for this month to June 18 in terms of averages, has already been far exceeded, following a quietening, slowing and down-trending period, mid March to mid April. From April 19 their data reveals an uptrend.


Some data may be subsequently upgraded by Christchurch Quake Map after release & publication.


Update June 16
By 6pm a very high number of aftershocks, (34) with several sizeable magnitudes -   with 5 over M4.0
In comparison, on June 13 the new sequence date, there were 8 fore or aftershocks of M4.0 or higher. The Angry Earth just isn't settling according to standard modelling. Daily event totals so far : 67, 51, 34 -from June 13-June 15. Activity has become intense in the Banks Peninsula area, which is an ancient volcanic zone.
http://bit.ly/hDz2ek

Update June 22

Activity has shifted from primarily Banks Peninsula to the Halswell-Lincoln area in the west on June 21. The highest mag of that day was M5.4 in this area. The current Daily Release of energy chart

Update June 23

This summary this morning in The Press talks of anomalous aspects to the June 21 activity

Update June 24

Christchurch Quakemap
shows June 23 data with a horizontal cluster aligned with the Greendale fault. If that line is taken west to east there are 13 of the 16 aftershocks in that zone

Update June 29 

A lull on June 28, only 2 aftershocks, but increasing today with multiple activity in/around Lyttelton Harbour

The Christchurch Press Ask an Expert (geoscientist column) is worth looking at: the question re tsunami potential is particularly worth having an understanding of. Pity that the local council is offering housing subdivisions in Belfast.

Update July 2

Some earthquake science including elastic rebound theory

Update July 4

A lull period in global seismicity in terms of events over M6 globally ( last being June 26 M6.3 offshore Indonesia) and in Christchurch NZ, daily aftershock totals plunging in this recent sequence from Monday June 27:
9,2,10,4,7,2,1...and today, so far 0. This is an unusually quiet lull and with the gravitational factors high from July 1, the week ahead, including lunar perigee on July 7, will be one to watch in terms of a rebounding uptick, as evidenced after prior lulls, on the university graph.

A powerful southern ocean low about to impact NZ for an extended wet, windy & cold winter storm will add atmospheric turbulence into the mix - watch and see if this factor appears to play a role in a seismic uptick. There are people who subscribe to this theory.

Global statistics for the past decade show M4.0-4.9 is the most frequently occurring range globally. Following that are the bands from M. 3, then 2, 5, 1, 6, 7, and finally M8.0-8.9  - source USGS

Update July 8
Canterbury Quake Live is also an excellent site for extra detail, graphs, data, maps. 
July 7 saw a M4.4 in the Oxford area which is an expected uptick (largest since M4.4, June 27)  after the lull between June 30 and July 4 inclusive, when daily totals were 4,7,2,2,5 aftershocks.


Geonet map of past 60 days

Update July 14

The rich aftershock pattern  noted by Geonet continues, with the June 13 events (M6.3, M5.6. The Daily Energy Release graph shows how strong this recent sequence is even though events are far less frequent. (this link will alter over time, but look for early July data)

Update July 16

The official line, earlier this week is contradictory: that things are quietening plus high magnitude events are likely, according to this report (source The Press):
GNS Science has updated computer-generated quake forecasts for the Canterbury aftershock zone, saying there is a 23 per cent chance of a magnitude-6.0 to 7.9 quake in the next 12 months.
If that does not happen, that will fall to a 20 per cent chance on August 15 for the subsequent year, and, similarly, to 18 per cent on September 15 for the following 12 months.
The probability of a magnitude-5.0 to 5.9 in the next year remains high, at 94 per cent.
 New faults found "There's multiple hidden fault structures."  "We need to be careful and cautious".- 

Update July 17
Full Moon event period July 13-17 - significant clusters or events data (USGS)
M4.4 July 16 Chch
M4.0 July 17 Chch
M5.0-5.2 - 7 events Kermadecs region
M5.0-5.2 - 4 events Honshu, Japan
M6.0 Chile
M6.1 Alaska
M5.3-5.9 - 3 events Tonga region

Translating the long-term Geonet forecasts:
90% chance in the period Mid July 2011-mid Sept 2012 of a quake in the range M5.0-5.9 in Christchurch. 
25%, declining to 20% chance, in that time frame, of a quake larger than M6.0

Update July 18
Check out the broader Canterbury seismic drums. Inchbonnie (Alpine Fault) has acted up twice in 24 hours with lots of noise but no magnitude event
Update July 22

The Geonet NZ seismograph for the M5.1 today 5.39 a.m. at Dunsandel. See the regional drums
Geoscientist's latest forecasting which includes far more detailed breakdowns of their computer modelled expectations. The Wild Card in all this of course that a new hi-mag event sets off a newly energised sequence. Today's event is in the Greendale fault zone of Sept 4 2010. It has been assessed by Canterbury Quake Live as the 19th equal highest mag since Sept 4, shared with 6 other events, but the deepest of that set, at 11.7kms.

Update July 23
The Canterbury pattern seems to have shifted to one of infrequent but high magnitude events, whereas the previous sequence declines since Sept 4 went into extended lower magnitude batches of M2+ and M3+.
Today's M4.3 11kms deep, 7.45 a.m., was again in The Dunsandel area of the Greendale fault.
Data can be searched.
Compare the two M6+ sequences, first starting February, showing highest magnitudes.
1. Feb 22 sequence is 6.46,  5.08,  4.94,  5.32,  5.22,  5.31,  5.55

2. June 13 sequence:  6.37,  5.46,  5.09,
(this will be updated as data arrives) Feb 22 started with a slightly higher, though the most destructive due to location, but the June 13 set is followed so far by higher magnitude events.

Update Aug 2 2011

Fun fact: Feb 14 2011 saw a major X-class solar flare send pulsing magnetic material towards earth. Nothing that significant had been recorded by NASA since 1995. Of late the sun has been extra quiet ( see post on Solar minimum & sunspots) but the odd large flare is still in the frame.
What we know is Christchurch & Japan suffered extreme quake damage within a month of that event.
Currently amidst a flurry of sunspots across the sun's mid-latitudes, Sunspot 1261 is believed to harbour capacity for another X-class flare. Watch and see what August brings. Christchurch has been very quiet of late though, as if tailing off ( July 22, M5.1 is the last high mag event) View some Chch quake history - graphed

Update August 26
An at a glance look at the quake progression since Sept 4 2010 in Chch/Canterbury shows events are at a similar point to May 2011, still with potential for a M5+ event. Mid June to mid July was the most active recent period and the present period continues at an average/below average event level.
For those who follow Ken Ring -his observations are pointing to caution needed, particularly around late Sept.
My references show a higher gravitational period from Sept 23-30 involving solar and lunar factors, with 27-28th particularly energised by the alignments of Mercury, Mars, Uranus and Pluto. People and places corresponding ( by vibrational resonance) to the turbulence generated will experience difficult/stressful events, but I will leave that to other locational specialists to determine whether Christchurch is in the frame. Certainly people born, any year, on or close to, Sept 27, Dec 26, April 24, July 25 are the prime resonators.

Update Sept 1 2011
After a lull period in August, the end of the month August 31 saw two higher intensity events: M4.0, M4.7 (or .8 in one source) The energy graph shows August 31 was the biggest seismic pulse since July 22 (highest M5.1)
Update Sept 2
Locals will be nervous in the light of the 3rd M4+ event on the eve of the Sept 2010 M7.1.
Today, Geonet reports:

This event conforms to a commonly seen pattern: 4 days after New Moon as well as in close proximity to perigee (Aug 30) , Moon at equator (Aug 30).